On the evening of 65438+February 3 1 day, Kweichow Moutai released the announcement of production and operation in 2020. According to the announcement, Kweichow Moutai is expected to achieve a total operating income of about 97.7 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of about 10%.
Why is Maotai so expensive? Why does Maotai's share price remain high? After reading this article, maybe you will understand something. (PS: This article is not an advertisement! Please read rationally ~) Enjoy the following:
Zhang Xiaojun Ma Yue Xiong Yuejia | Author
Economics around us | Source
For Maotai, the embodiment of time value is more typical.
Tracing back to the source, Maotai's craft has a history of thousands of years, coming from the farming period; Looking to the future, as long as China liquor culture exists, Maotai will exist.
Based on this kind of thinking, understanding Maotai is to look at Maotai a hundred years later and imagine Maotai or Maotai a hundred years later.
0 1
Great enterprises always keep pace with the times.
When you are a consumer, you hope that some enterprises will always provide you with satisfactory products and services; When you are an investor, you want to find a good company that can continue to make profits; When your responsibilities become different, you are a local official, a policy maker and a development promoter. You hope to find a responsible enterprise, respected and blessed, and keep pace with the times.
No matter what your status is, you will find that those enterprises that can meet the above standards usually have one feature-they can do one thing for a long time.
Those great enterprises always adhere to the concept of "being friends with time", and they can fully understand the value of time (see Figure 0- 1):
Understand Maotai with the time scale, and you will understand why Maotai can become a commercial miracle, and why so many people are always optimistic about Maotai.
In the eyes of Rebecca, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Maotai Group, the success of Maotai is due to the precipitation and accumulation of time.
The production cycle of Moutai is long, with years as the unit. The growth of a new worker takes several years or even more than ten years. Raw material planting and environmental protection construction. , all need time. Time ensures that Moutai meets strict quality standards.
Judging from the commercial value brought by time, Maotai has been insisting on writing articles full of wine for so many years: the longer the time, the more fragrant the wine and the higher the commercial value.
Wine will not be lost and devalued because of the passage of time, but will increase in value. It is understood that five of the oldest 16 companies in the world are liquor companies.
From the perspective of product boundaries, many products have unbreakable ceilings, such as lack of imagination and limited growth. But over time, Moutai has become a spiritual product, a collectible and a financial product.
Moutai has a long history, its fragrance and red feelings are the source of its spiritual value. Maotai liquor is scarce and valuable for collection; Maotai liquor has the potential of long-term price increase and financial attributes.
From the perspective of commercial barriers, Maotai has built a moat that other enterprises can't cross with geographical features and time.
199 1 year, Ji Keliang, the former chairman of maotai, made a remark that "maotai can't be produced without maotai town", which directly made maotai town 15.03 square kilometers a natural barrier that maotai can't replicate.
In addition, the five-year aging system of liquor gives Moutai a time barrier.
Time makes old wine, and old wine makes Maotai. Maotai Distillery has established an aging storage system since 1956, and has a large number of base wines so far. The commercial value of these base wines is immeasurable.
Any bottle of Moutai must go through the blending process of old wine and new wine in the factory. Therefore, the Moutai liquor that consumers get is actually more than five years old, and there are traces of the years of Chen Nianji wine.
Judging from the compound interest value of time, many investors like to use the compound annual growth rate to calculate the compound interest effect of Maotai, and even calculate the product price and output value of Maotai after 10 and 100.
Maotai is a living fossil of China liquor, symbolizing a long history of liquor culture. As long as liquor culture exists, Maotai will exist. From the future, Maotai's time compound interest will appear at an unimaginable speed.
The charm of business is that there is always uncertainty. The only thing that can resist uncertainty is time.
For a long time, enterprises should always adhere to the long-term spirit, take the vertical development path and cultivate snowball-like growth thinking.
02
Continue to dig deep and build a moat
Some people say that Maotai has inherent advantages, unique geographical environment, unique original technology, scarcity and non-replicability, and can sell well without doing anything.
Then, if this is the case, why can't others brew Moutai in Maotai Town with the same technology and the same raw materials?
People who say that Maotai doesn't need to do anything are typical people who have misunderstandings about Maotai. Any enterprise needs a long time to build a solid moat, which can't be reliable overnight. It must be dug and built constantly.
Today's moat in Maotai has given Maotai a long-term competitive advantage, but it was not achieved overnight, but was built after years of system construction, including technology, production, management, scientific research, marketing, brand and culture, all of which are indispensable.
The moat theory holds that products that consumers can't give up have high conversion costs and long-term competitive advantages. Maotai liquor has not only achieved high conversion cost in consumers' minds, but is even truly irreplaceable.
"I only drink Moutai." Most of the respondents answered this question. They say that if you drink Moutai, you can't accept other wines. Not only maotai people, maotai dealers and consumers have high loyalty to maotai.
When people talk about the high quality of Moutai, they often use "three musts" to describe it: the first must is "leaving fragrance in an empty cup", the second must is "drinking Moutai without going to the head" and the third must is "relaxing when drinking properly", which can be regarded as an experience after drinking. The fragrance, beauty and beauty of Moutai represent consumers' recognition of the quality of Moutai.
It is not difficult to maintain the quality for a period of time, but it is difficult to keep the quality unchanged for a long time. How does Maotai always insist on quality in the long-term development?
From the observer's point of view, the answer is that this enterprise has implanted the concept of quality into people's hearts and persistently implemented it.
Times are changing, enterprises are changing and people are changing, but the quality requirements of Moutai will never change.
Under this concept, Maotai always insisted on not selling new wine, and it was not listed until five years later. After 30 working procedures and 165 working procedures, it adheres to the principles of "three highs and three lengths" and "nine steaming, eight pits and seven wines".
It is precisely because of the persistence of these ancient crafts, the belief in Taoism and nature, and the pursuit of scientific innovation that the high-quality development of Maotai is guaranteed (see Figure 0-2).
Maotai people know that quality is the foundation, and enterprises without quality are like buildings built on the beach. When the wind blows, it ceases to exist.
Inside Maotai, the slogan "Quality is in my hand" can be seen everywhere. Only by implanting quality consciousness into bone marrow can quality be guaranteed.
03
Growth logic and value background
20 19,65438 On February 27th, Maotai Group announced: "In 2019, the sales revenue of China Kweichow Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. reached1000 billion yuan, achieving the 13th Five-Year Plan one year ahead of schedule, continuing to consolidate the leading position in the national liquor industry and making positive contributions to the taxation of Guizhou and Zunyi.
This is 1989. It took only 30 years for Maotai Distillery to achieve a sales breakthrough of 1 100 million yuan in the case of a decline in liquor sales nationwide.
Reviewing several important nodes in the history of Maotai Distillery;
In just a few decades, Maotai has achieved extraordinary things and extraordinary achievements. What is the growth route behind it?
The first is undoubtedly the road map of the relationship between Maotai and China's economic development.
In the past 40 years since China's reform and opening up, the system reform has released great economic vitality. China's economy has experienced an unprecedented high-speed development stage. Enterprises and individuals first enjoy the dividends of the times and policies, as well as the dividends of China's rapid economic growth.
For a long time, Maotai insists on high quality, and Maotai is synonymous with high-end liquor. Since the reform and opening up, the people of China have truly felt the dividends brought by the times. A group of high-income people have been born in China, and ordinary people have become rich.
In this context, the purchasing power of Chinese consumers has increased, and the per capita disposable income has increased year by year. Consumption of Moutai is an inevitable choice (see Figure 0-3).
The second is the quality development roadmap of Maotai.
19 15, Maotai won the gold medal of Panama World Expo (at that time, the winning products were presented by Cheng Yi Herong and two burning houses), and its name is famous for its quality. 195 1 year. After the establishment of Maotai Distillery, the quality concept of Moutai was established.
Nowadays, it is not unusual for enterprises to put quality first. In the past decades, enterprises in China have experienced a transformation from high-speed development to high-quality development, and quality is the core and lifeline of enterprises.
But looking back, we can see that Maotai's insistence on product quality is an awareness that existed under the background of the lack of material resources in the industrial era, and it has never changed until today.
If you draw a road map of Maotai's quality development, it can be roughly divided into four stages: process quality improvement, management quality improvement, modern quality improvement and high quality determination (see Figure 0-4).
In 1950s, the way of inheritance of Moutai brewing technology was word of mouth. At that time, Maotai launched an advanced production movement of "actively restoring the original process operation and focusing on improving quality".
At this stage, the old winemakers and workers tried to solidify the operation points of the traditional technology of Moutai. 1957 comprehensively summarizes the fourteen operation steps.
In 1980s, Maotai carried out total quality management in liquor industry, extended the quality from technology to the whole production management system, and established a quality evaluation system.
It can be said that in China at that time, Maotai's ideas and measures were extremely advanced, which greatly promoted the quality management of the whole industry.
In 1990s, Maotai realized the importance of high technology. During this period, it began the certification of ISO9000 series international standards.
From 65438 to 0993, the enterprise passed the product and quality assurance system certification, helping "long-term aging" and "careful blending", two key links that determine the quality of Moutai, to enter the microcomputer era and successfully realize the docking with international practices.
Maotai's roadmap for quality development embodies the spirit of self-improvement of China enterprises in the quality battle.
The third is the value growth roadmap of Maotai.
Judging from the value of Moutai, the output of Moutai has experienced a long climbing process, which we call "climbing curve" (see Figure 0-5).
On the eve of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the highest output of Moutai appeared at 1947, only 60 tons. 1954 The output reached 163 tons. By 1978, the output exceeded 1000 tons for the first time, which was 1068 tons. By 199 1, the output nearly doubled to 2000 tons.
199 1 to 1992 for expansion project, and the output of maotai liquor of 1995 is nearly 4,000 tons. In fact, in 2003, the output of Maotai liquor exceeded 1 10,000 tons for the first time.
In 2008, the output of Moutai reached 20,000 tons; In 20 16, the output of Moutai reached 39,000 tons; In 20 19, the output of Moutai reached 49,900 tons.
The "climbing" of output brings the growth performance of revenue, which is called "broken bamboo curve", that is, like bamboo, it has experienced underground growth for many years, and when it breaks through the ground, it is unstoppable.
Before 1978, Maotai suffered losses for 16 years, and it was not until 1978 that this situation was reversed. From 1978 to 1988, it only took 10 years, and Maotai's revenue exceeded 100 million.
From the camp of 1988, it received 1000 billion yuan in 2008, and Maotai used it for another 20 years. From the completion of 65.438+billion yuan in 2008 to the formal entry into the Billion Group in 2065.438+09, it only took 654.38+02 years for Maotai (see Figure 0-6).
The "climbing" of output and the "breaking bamboo" of revenue are behind the release of the value of Maotai. The past development has proved that Maotai not only enjoys the compound income of value, but also has the ability to create value.
The value of assets is tangible. Maotai contains a thousand-year-old culture, and its intangible brand value is even greater.
In 20 19, the "Top 500 Most Valuable Brands in China in 20 19" published by British brand evaluation agency Brand Finance showed that Maotai ranked 14, with a brand value of 207.946 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 47.4%.
In 2020, Maotai ranked 18 in the list of the world's most valuable brands 100 released by Brand Z, with a brand value of US$ 53.755 billion, becoming the fastest growing brand in the world.
Brand value not only brings benefits to Maotai, but also is its solid moat, which is an advantage that others can't achieve.
Some people say that Maotai still needs to create more value and make the world a better place. But everyone agrees that Maotai is forging ahead towards the goal of a great enterprise.
Perhaps Mr. Gao Weidong's summary can describe today's Maotai: Maotai is a specialty of Guizhou, a business card of China, a national brand and a heritage of mankind. Whether it is great or not should be left to history to answer.
About the author: Zhang Xiaojun, financial writer, senior planner, Koala Kan Kan and founding partner of Content Gravity Capital, has been engaged in enterprise and business case studies for many years.
Ma Yue, publisher, co-founder and CEO of Koala, is an important researcher and practitioner of the content industry in China.
Xiong Yuejia, financial writer, director of koala Look head enterprise research center.