In the past year, monetary policy pushed financial institutions to phase out stock business, restricted and controlled incremental business, and the regulatory authorities specially rectified market chaos, made up for the shortcomings of the system, guided financial institutions to return to their original sources, focused on their main businesses, and enhanced their ability to serve the real economy. Looking ahead, how to guard against financial risks? How can finance better serve the real economy? What is the direction of financial supervision?
Three virtuous cycles to promote the return of finance to its origin
Jiangsu Ruitao Machinery Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is an enterprise engaged in the production and sales of construction machinery equipment. Recently, a commissioned production contract was signed with a company, amounting to 5.39 million yuan. As the payment was made after the completion, the company had to prepay the cost of purchasing raw materials.
"I heard that banks are pushing interactive products of bank tax, and small and micro enterprises can apply for credit loans from banks with good tax records." Shang Cantao, the person in charge of the company, applied to Jingjiang Rural Commercial Bank for "tax easy loan". According to the actual sales situation of the enterprise last year, the bank calculated that its tax payment last year was about 400,000 yuan, and determined that the tax credit evaluation result of the enterprise was Grade B, which met the loan conditions of "tax-easy loan". The next day, the company borrowed 6,543,800 yuan+0.6 million yuan.
In the past year, credit funds began to return to the main business, focusing on the main business. The traditional loan business has grown rapidly. According to statistics, 1 17 increased loans by 12.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the annual scale of 20 16. Banking loans increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and new loans were mainly invested in manufacturing, emerging strategic industries, weak areas and weak links. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing loans has maintained positive growth for nine consecutive months, up 2.6 percentage points over the same period last year.
However, enterprises still have more expectations. Shang Cantao said that the interaction between bank and tax has solved the problem of small and micro enterprises' lack of mortgage and loan difficulty, but the loan amount is still too small to meet the needs of enterprise development. I hope that in the future, in addition to taxes, banks can also refer to more business indicators of enterprises, such as the payment of water, electricity and social security by enterprises, as well as the capital flow and orders in hand. Banks have a more comprehensive understanding of enterprises, and our credit line can also be improved. In addition, it would be better if the financing cost could be further reduced.
What enterprises expect is the reform of financial institutions. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the main line of structural reform on the service supply side should promote the formation of a virtuous circle between finance and the real economy, finance and real estate, and within the financial system.
"The virtuous circle between finance and the real economy refers to requiring finance to return to its original source and enhancing its ability to serve the real economy. A virtuous circle with real estate should require reshaping the relationship between finance and real estate. Finance should not only cooperate with real estate regulation and control to prevent financial risks caused by real estate bubble, but also serve the establishment of long-term real estate mechanism, and support the housing system of low-rent housing construction and rent-and-purchase simultaneously with capital and service innovation. The virtuous circle in the financial system is to continue to reduce capital idling, prohibit excessive maturity mismatch, and prohibit regulatory arbitrage. , continue to thoroughly rectify market chaos, reduce the cross-market, cross-industry and cross-field financial risks, and promote the withdrawal of funds from reality. Further return to the source and invest more in the real economy. " Ceng Gang, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, said.
Reduce macro leverage ratio and guard against risks in key areas.
65438+February 65438+March, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, China Construction Bank and China Life Insurance signed the CSSC Debt-to-Equity Debt-to-Equity Investment Agreement to jointly promote the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap business. CSSC and CCB signed a debt-to-equity swap agreement with an intentional investment of 24 billion yuan. Subsequently, the three parties jointly funded the establishment of a CSSC private equity investment fund with an initial scale of 7.5 billion yuan, which was jointly managed and operated by CCB (Beijing) Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. and China Life Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. The funds obtained from the three parties' operations were mainly used to repay existing debts and reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises.
High leverage is the general source of financial fragility. Ceng Gang analyzed that high macro leverage ratio will bring potential financial risks: First, the growth of money and credit exceeds the demand of the real economy, which will easily lead to financial disengagement and asset bubbles, especially the real estate market bubble; Second, the debt burden of some economic entities is too high, such as excessive local government debt, which not only has a potential repayment crisis, but also distorts the allocation of financial resources.
20 17 through strong supervision, we try our best to make finance divorced from reality, and at the same time actively promote the corporate sector, especially state-owned enterprises, to reduce leverage. China's macro leverage ratio shows a steady but declining trend, and the debt risk tends to decline. According to the latest data from the National Finance and Development Laboratory, by the end of the third quarter of 20 17, China's overall leverage ratio was 239%, a slight increase of 1.5 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and the overall stability. However, the leverage ratio of enterprises began to decline. 20 154.8% At the end of the third quarter, the leverage ratio of China's non-financial enterprises was 154.8%, which decreased or remained flat for three consecutive quarters, with a cumulative decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared with the end of the first quarter. The downward trend of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has been further established, and macro high leverage risks are being resolved in an orderly manner.
Risk prevention and disposal in key areas and resolutely crack down on illegal financial activities. Dong Ximiao, deputy director of the Industry Development Research Committee of China Banking Association, analyzed: "The' strong supervision' of the banking, securities and insurance industries by the regulatory authorities will continue to advance. For example, the interbank business and asset management business of the banking system, rather than the illegal financial activities of licensed financial institutions, will be cleaned up. Now the risks are mainly concentrated in the fields of internet finance and private finance. In the next step, we must continue to do a good job in the special rectification activities of Internet financial risks, further make up for the shortcomings in regulatory coordination and system construction, and take more effective measures from the aspects of source control, strict process management, and post-event accountability to build a closed-loop supervision of Internet finance and private finance, effectively prevent and resolve outstanding risks, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of financial consumers, and maintain financial order and social stability. "
Establish a strong and long-term supervision mechanism
How will financial supervision go in the future? Ceng Gang said that in terms of preventing and controlling financial risks, he basically continued several directions put forward by the National Financial Work Conference held in July this year. In 20 17, the financial supervision department specially rectified the market chaos to make up for the shortcomings of the system. The next step is to strengthen the construction of weak link supervision system, establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and control risks, and consolidate the short-term effect of chaos control through more perfect system construction. Risk prevention and strong supervision are not to curb asset bubbles in the short term, but to continue the previous policy for a long time and "carry out risk prevention to the end".
"The policy has always been to find a balance between steady growth and risk prevention. In previous years, more emphasis was placed on steady growth. Putting risk prevention in a more important position now means that monetary policy and regulatory policy will remain unchanged next year, and the trend of strong financial supervision will not be relaxed because of the slowdown in economic growth. " Ceng Gang said.
"Monetary policy remains stable and neutral, which fully reflects the original intention of the central high-level officials to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for steady economic growth and cooperation with deleveraging." Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, analyzed that the Central Economic Work Conference clearly put forward "managing the general gate of money supply", which means that maintaining a reasonable and stable liquidity of monetary policy will remain the main goal next year. Emphasizing "neutrality" means that it will not be further tightened, especially considering the actual effect of tightening the financial sector under strong supervision and strict supervision. The "neutrality" policy requires more flexible use of various tools to stabilize market fluctuations and resolve potential liquidity risks in the financial system, so as to maintain macro liquidity and overall moderate interest rates.
Lian Ping said that it is expected that in the coming period, financial deleveraging will be further deepened and strong financial supervision will not be reduced. A series of new regulatory policies similar to the new regulations on asset management will be introduced one after another. From the main areas, it is expected to supervise off-balance-sheet business of banks, internet finance, disposal of "zombie enterprises" and financial holding companies.
Do every step well and the decision is correct.