Development and Reform Commission: The continuation policy will work together from both supply and demand to expand effective demand.
On September 5th, the State Council held a regular briefing on the State Council policy, and relevant officials of the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission introduced policies and measures to stabilize the economy. Yang Yinkai, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that the continuation policy should work together from both supply and demand, focus on expanding effective demand, promoting investment, bringing consumption, increasing employment, strengthening energy supply security, stabilizing grain production, doing a good job in logistics, ensuring smooth traffic, and continuing to reduce the burden on market players, which is conducive to further consolidating the foundation of economic recovery and effectively enhancing the development potential.
Liu Guoqiang, Vice Governor of the Central Bank: Guarantee the reasonable financing demand of real estate.
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that it is necessary to give prominence to supporting key areas, weak links and industries affected by the epidemic. Make good use of small loans to support agriculture, and implement support tools such as clean and efficient use of coal, scientific and technological innovation, inclusive pension, special refinancing for transportation and logistics, inclusive microcredit support tools, and carbon emission reduction support tools. Continue to pay principal and interest to small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, truck driver loans and personal housing and consumer loans affected by the epidemic. Guarantee the reasonable financing demand of real estate, and reasonably support the rigid and improved housing demand. Increase financial support for key areas of the platform economy according to laws and regulations, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy.
Ministry of Finance: Actively study and expand the investment field of special bond funds and expand the scope of special bonds as project capital.
Assistant Minister of Finance Owen Han said that the Ministry of Finance intends to guide local governments to make good use of the special debt balance limit of more than 500 billion yuan according to law. By issuing new special bonds, we will focus on supporting logistics infrastructure such as transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry, water conservancy, ecological environment protection, social undertakings, urban and rural cold chains, infrastructure of government industrial parks, major national strategic projects, affordable housing projects, and new energy projects and new infrastructure projects. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance will actively study the appropriate expansion of special bond investment areas and the scope of special bonds as project capital, and give full play to the role of special bonds in stimulating effective investment.
To stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange reserve ratio for the second time this year.
The People's Bank of China announced on Monday that the foreign exchange reserve ratio of financial institutions will be lowered by 2 percentage points from September 15, that is, the foreign exchange reserve ratio will be lowered from the current 8% to 6%. This is the second time that the central bank lowered the foreign exchange reserve ratio this year. On April 25th, the People's Bank of China announced that it would reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point to 8% from May 5th. The foreign exchange reserve ratio is the ratio of the foreign exchange reserve paid by commercial banks to the central bank to the total foreign exchange absorbed. Reducing this ratio means increasing the supply of foreign currency and restraining the depreciation of RMB to some extent. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, explained that the US dollar index once broke through the 1 10 mark, which triggered the passive depreciation of RMB against the US dollar. The central bank's move will release a positive signal to the market, which will help stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate and avoid irrational overshoot.
Shanghai: Scientific planning, moderately advanced layout and construction of charging and replacing facilities.
Gong Zheng, deputy secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and mayor, presided over the executive meeting of the municipal government on the 5th, stressing the need to continuously promote the transformation of old districts, complete sets of old houses and "villages in cities" according to the deployment of the municipal party committee; Solidly promote the import and export of foreign trade, ensure stability and improve quality; Accelerate the construction of charging and replacing facilities for electric vehicles. The meeting agreed in principle to the "Support Measures of Shanghai Municipality for Encouraging the Development of Charging and Replacing Facilities for Electric Vehicles", and pointed out that it is necessary to further strengthen the policy convergence between the state and this Municipality, scientifically plan and appropriately arrange charging and replacing facilities in advance to better meet the needs of citizens. At the same time, constantly improve the formulation of standard rules and digital intelligent management. It is necessary to seize key breakthroughs, make full use of policies, solve difficult problems such as charging pile construction in residential areas and charging and replacing taxis, and further improve the enthusiasm and satisfaction of all parties. It is necessary to do a good job in demonstration and guidance, keep up with technological frontiers and industry trends, and pay close attention to the construction of demonstration projects such as "from slow to fast", intelligent vehicle networking interaction, and high-level power station replacement.
(Investment consultant: Lin, practice certificateNo.: S02606 15 100004)
Second, the focus of market hotspots
Market comment: The surge in natural gas stimulates the strength of the energy sector.
On Monday, the market showed a volatile pattern, and the three major indexes were mixed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to close at 3 199.9 1, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20% to close at1kloc-0/678.69, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose 0.20% to close at 2538.20. Russia's natural gas supply to Europe has undergone new changes, and the geopolitical pattern has continuously amplified its impact on international energy prices. The energy sector also showed short-term strength in the secondary market. At present, the rotation rhythm of each plate is fast, and the effect of making money is not obvious enough. It is suggested that investors continue to adhere to the fundamental allocation logic in the medium and long term, and at the same time, they can pay due attention to the allocation opportunities of midstream manufacturing industries and consumer sectors that benefit from economic recovery.
(Investment Consultant Wang Huaibei registered investment consultant certificate number. :S02606 15030009)
Macro-view: In August, the industry boom in the middle reaches was relatively leading.
Event: The manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in August, which confirmed the weak rebound of the emerging industry prosperity index EPMI. However, the characteristics of weak economic stabilization are still obvious, and the number of industries in the boom expansion period has not increased. Among 15 major manufacturing industries, the number of industries located in the expansion area in July and August were 1 1 and 9 respectively. Compared with July, non-metallic minerals and general equipment entered the boom expansion zone in August, while medicine, chemical industry, metal products, chemical fiber and rubber fell into the contraction zone. Judging from the absolute level and quantile value of the boom, the boom of the equipment manufacturing industry in the middle reaches is obviously ahead. Measured by the proportion of the number of industries in the expansion area, the equipment manufacturing industry (80%) >; Consumer goods (75%)& gt；; Raw materials and intermediate products (33%); Except for metal products, the prosperity of other industries in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry is in the expansion range of more than 50; And the prosperity scores of general equipment, special equipment and motor industries are all above 80%, which is in the leading position in all industries, and the prosperity of general equipment is the highest level in the past four years.
Source: GF Securities Research Report
Comments: While the price of upstream resources is restricted by many factors in the international market, repeated epidemics in some parts of China also affect the flexibility and space of terminal consumption. Therefore, at this stage, the prosperity of midstream manufacturing companies has played a positive supporting role to a certain extent, and the price of follow-up resources is still uncertain. The prosperity of the midstream industry is expected to continue to a certain extent, and the downstream consumption will gradually converge with the impact of the epidemic or will gradually release positive contributions.
(Investment Consultant Wang Huaibei registered investment consultant certificate number. :S02606 15030009)
Coal industry: the profit reached a new high in the second quarter, and the upward trend of medium-term valuation may continue.
Event: The profit of the coal industry continued to hit a new high in the first half of the year, and the overall non-net profit increased by 23% in the second quarter. Relevant data show that the total net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year and the net profit attributable to the mother after deducting non-profit were 65,438+0,409 and 65,438+0,365,438+0,654,380 billion yuan respectively, up by 65,438+0.05% and 96% respectively. After deducting Shenhua, the total amount is 99.8 billion yuan and 90.6 billion yuan, increasing by 138% and 1 13% respectively. 1 and the total net profit attributable to the company in the second quarter was 57.5 billion yuan and 83.4 billion yuan respectively, and after deducting non-profits, it was 58.9 billion yuan and 72.3 billion yuan respectively, which increased by 45% and 23% respectively in the second quarter.
Source: GF Securities Research Report
Comments: Affected by international geopolitics and other factors, coal prices will continue to be strong in 2022, and the strength will continue to be maintained, and the overall valuation of the coal sector will rise or continue. At present, the industry policy tends to be stable, the price of long-term association is stable, the medium and long-term supply and demand of coal are relatively certain, and the dynamic PE center of the industry is about 5-6 times. At this stage, there is still room for improvement. Maintaining a high profitability in the medium and long term is a high probability event, and investors can continue to pay attention to allocation opportunities.
(Investment Consultant Wang Huaibei registered investment consultant certificate number. :S02606 15030009)
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Four. Key stock recommendation
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