Editor | Shi Zhiliang
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), a star foreign company, is now at the forefront of public opinion.
In April this year, an in-car HD video shot by Tesla camera triggered a heated discussion about data protection. Xinhuanet commented that "the privacy involved in the car is not what you want to take!" In March, whether the quality problem of # Tesla should be on 3 15# attracted a lot of discussion on social media. Many netizens think that "Tesla should go to CCTV 3? 15 party "; In February, Tesla was jointly interviewed by five departments, including the General Administration of Market Supervision, due to problems such as abnormal acceleration, battery fire and OTA.
As a car, Tesla has many problems, but everyone loves Tesla. Wu Xiaoyu, a post-90 s entrepreneur in Shenzhen, told the traveler (ID:carcaijing): "Smart technology, brand premium!" As a lover of intelligent technology, his home is full of all kinds of smart homes, and he feels that Tesla's high-tech attributes are almost tailor-made for him.
Founded in 2003, this Silicon Valley company has set a number of records: the longest cruising range (20 12 reaches 480km), the strongest self-driving (still recognized as the first car company), the first to upgrade the whole vehicle OTA, the first to create a direct sales model, and CEO elon musk himself became the richest man in the world with the rapid rise of the share price of 202 1.
Many pioneering works of pioneers have been copied and studied. For example, the model of opening an experience center in shopping malls in big cities has now become the industry standard. If a car company wants to prove its strong autonomous driving ability, it must be said that the accuracy and quantity of cameras are Tesla. Several times, dozens of times.
However, Tesla's first-Mover advantage is facing challenges from competitors in various industries: the once dominant battery field has been strongly impacted by China enterprises; In the automatic driving perception solution, most car companies have stood on the opposite side of Tesla; In the field of intelligent network connection, internet technology companies personally went into battle; Although the traditional car giants are a little slow, they are also catching up.
The price reduction promotion also allowed Tesla to take the initiative to step down from the altar. Model 3 reduced its price seven times in more than a year. Consumers who think that they have been "cut with leeks" have a mentality from ecstasy before buying a car to dissatisfaction after buying a car, and the brand image of Tesla with a strong sense of science and technology has been dampened. In this way, the new forces of making cars have embarked on their own brand differentiation.
From the consumer to the official level, this star foreign company is experiencing an unprecedented word of mouth crisis. The production capacity of Shanghai Superfactory has increased from 65,438+0,000 vehicles per week at the beginning of 2020 to 5,000 vehicles by the end of the year. The production capacity has quintupled, and quality problems have also emerged. Even Musk himself admits that now is not a good time to buy a car. Tesla, who just arrived but has a fierce offensive, was denounced as "arrogant" by Xinhua News Agency. Recently, it even attracted high-standard interviews from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, and data security issues were also put on the table.
"The traditional car companies that have successfully transformed will take away the aura of Tesla, and the market's expectations for Tesla will gradually decline, and the views of the capital market will also change." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, told Traveler (ID:carcaijing) that whether Tesla can maintain sustainable scale growth has become the key to this encirclement and suppression, and a showdown is beginning.
It is undeniable that for a long time in the past, Tesla has been recognized as a template in the field of new energy vehicles, regardless of its technical direction, business model or product concept, but this situation has quietly changed, and many advantages of Tesla are gradually disappearing.
Take the power battery as an example. When Tesla Model 3 was officially delivered in 20 17, the endurance of 354 km (standard version) and 499 km (long endurance version) was the best in the world. At that time, the actual cruising range of electric vehicles of the same class in China was below 300 km.
With the groundbreaking "2 1700" battery technology, Tesla has increased the diameter of 3mm and the length of 5mm on the basis of the traditional "18650" cylindrical battery (18 stands for diameter, 65 stands for length and 0 stands for cylinder). It seems that slightly increasing the size can increase the energy density by 20% and reduce the cost 10%. Its comprehensive performance is second to none in the global battery products, attracting many domestic battery manufacturers to follow suit.
With the rapid development of domestic battery suppliers, led by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. (300750). SH), the gap between domestic and international endurance is rapidly narrowing. Throughout the mass production of pure electric vehicles in 2020, the comprehensive cruising range of more than 500km is almost standard for high-end vehicles, and many models such as Tucki P7 have already exceeded the 700km mark. 202 1 This year, Weilai and GAC took 1000km as a new milestone. This endurance is completely out of Tesla.
Gao Qing, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a power battery expert, said: "China's battery is very good, and Tesla's battery technology has no impact on China." After entering the China market, Tesla also chose Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. as one of the battery suppliers.
The same story happened in the technological evolution of autonomous driving. Tesla has always been an uncompromising visual school in autonomous driving solutions, that is, pure visual computing is mainly based on cameras. Its unique "shadow mode" can compare the driver's operation with the "shadow" perception of the environment to continuously strengthen its automatic driving system. Tesla's autonomous driving ability is generally considered to be the first in the industry.
However, more and more car companies question Tesla's route and turn to the laser radar route, that is, it is led by laser radar and cooperates with cameras and other components to realize the automatic driving function.
Wang Xiaobin, an automobile expert in the Human-Vehicle Relationship Laboratory of Tongji University Automobile College, told Traveler (ID:carcaijing) that if Tesla can really make the camera of the car and the algorithm is strong enough, in theory, it can be completely unmanned through the visual scheme. "The starting point is right, but can machines really observe and think like humans? The difficulty now is: if you only rely on the camera to achieve the efficiency of the human eye, is the information obtained enough to support judgment? "
Tucki and Wei Lai fired the first shot on the lidar. At the end of 2020 1 1, he Xiaopeng, CEO of xpeng motors, and musk "talked about the laser radar route", and then announced that they would cooperate with DJI to install a customized version of the automotive laser radar on the 202 1 new model. Weilai 65438+ released the first car ET7 on10.9, and lidar is also one of the highlights. Among traditional car companies, Hyundai, BMW, Ford and other brands also have product planning equipped with lidar.
Obviously, Tesla's technical vane status is no longer stable: in the field of batteries, Tesla has been imitated or will eventually be surpassed; In the automatic driving perception solution, most car companies are United and stand on the opposite side.
Cars are the crown of industrial manufacturing. Even though Tesla has many advanced technologies, it faces manufacturing difficulties. "A friend asked me when I should buy Tesla. My answer is to buy it at the beginning, or wait until production stabilizes. " Recently, Musk exposed his shortcomings. "Because in the process of accelerating production, it is really difficult to make the output soar and make all the details perfect."
The "2020 New Car Quality Research (IQS) Report" released by J.D Power, an automobile research institution, shows that Tesla's initial quality score is 250PP 100, which means that every 100 Tesla model will have 250 problems, ranking the bottom. It should be pointed out that although Tesla has many problems, it focuses on the appearance and interior, rather than the common problems or key areas of other models such as batteries, entertainment and navigation.
Since it was made in China for more than a year, with the reduction of production costs, Model 3 has experienced five price reductions, from 355,800 to 249,900 now. Although new car owners are in a constant stream, old car owners feel that their feelings have been seriously hurt. Before buying the first batch of domestic Model 3, Ms. Zhang of Beijing admitted that she was "Tesla powder, bought with friends". After the vehicle arrived, her evaluation became "Tesla really never let us down in cutting leeks." I hate this company now. "
In this regard, Tao Lin, vice president of Tesla's foreign affairs, responded many times: the price is related to the cost. We produce in China, and the cost saved is not given to consumers. It's called "cutting leeks". If the price of raw materials or parts rises in the future, Tesla may also raise the price. No matter at any time, the best price is provided to consumers.
"User experience is not the biggest concern of technology companies." Zheng Yun, senior global partner of roland berger and vice president of Greater China, told Traveler (ID:carcaijing) that automobile products need to adapt to the new normal in the process of continuous iteration. It turns out that buying a car is a dealer system, and dealers need to make money. Consumers don't know where the price difference is. Even if the car itself is not so valuable, the terminal price will not change. Tesla adopts a transparent direct sales model, so consumers don't have to run several 4S stores for comparison. This is a double-edged sword. Some people like it, others don't, see personal understanding.
The same brand ranges from 800,000 to 250,000, and only an outsider like Musk can do it, which is considered to have broken the golden rule of the automobile industry.
Among the members of the Volkswagen Passenger Car Brand Management Committee, Stephan W? Llenstein) It seems that a high-end brand like Tesla that hits the market from top to bottom must be very sensitive and cautious. "When others think you are a high-end brand, you have to spend a lot of money to get such consumer awareness. If the expansion is too fast, the brand will soon come down, loyal customers will be lost, and the established relationship between the brand and social identity will be forgotten. " Feng said in an interview with traveler (ID:carcaijing).
At the end of 1 after the localization of Tesla Model Y, BMW drastically reduced the price by about 70,000 yuan, which confronted Model Y head-on. Unlike the old car owners injured by Tesla's direct price reduction, BMW compensated the old car owners for the cash difference. BMW China replied to the traveler (ID:carcaijing) that the subsidy for old car owners is to take into account their feelings and make them realize that the BMW brand is trustworthy.
Li Hanming, the founder of data analysis company Li and Li, analyzed with Traveler (ID:carcaijing) that from the brand loyalty brought by identity, many car factory groups have a complete "consumption upgrade" curve. For example, the owner who opened the Toyota Crown in his early years often drives Lexus now; Car owners who used to drive Volkswagen Passat now often drive Audi. This "habit becomes nature" recognition of the concept of car-making in the car factory has given the car factory a stable customer base.
The differentiation of automobile brands is extremely important. Tesla focuses on the sense of technology. At present, it is recognized that Weilai Automobile is the top brand of the new domestic car-making force, and its "user" label has become more and more popular.
A traveler (ID:carcaijing) observed at the 20021Nioday conference that, unlike ordinary car enterprise leaders who first introduced leaders from all walks of life at the conference, Li Bin, the founder and CEO, spent a lot of time thanking users, sharing stories of car owners participating in public welfare and outdoor activities, and then preaching corporate information-the CEO of a car enterprise can remember the names of car owners and establish direct contact.
Mr. Miao, the owner of Weilai in Chengdu, has a unique theory: people who spend 400,000 yuan on a domestic new energy car (the average price of Weilai cars exceeds 400,000 yuan) have higher income levels and classes than those who buy entry-level groups at the same price, because they "can spend 400,000 yuan on a toy" instead of using the car as an important family asset or means of transportation.
Li Bin also revealed to the traveler (ID:carcaijing) that Weilai brand will not enter the parity market, and if the product wants to enter the low-price range, it will consider setting up a new brand.
"A well-done brand has a clear differentiated label." Zheng Yun believes that there are too many existing automobile products. If consumers can't tell the difference between products and services, it will be difficult for them to switch to new brands. Because changing brands requires not only money, but also time and energy costs.
Musk is Tesla's natural billboard. A few words of this world-class online celebrity on Twitter can promote the fire of audio software clubhouse, and the value of virtual currency dogecoin and Bitcoin soared. No CEO of a car brand can replicate such celebrity effect.
"Charming leaders with personality, strong business sensitivity, high technical requirements and unique insights into intergenerational products are Tesla's greatest wealth." Zheng Yun told a traveler (ID:carcaijing) that Musk is also an excellent product manager and can push things to the ground.
As the new richest man in the world, Musk owns a number of technology startups, including space exploration technology company in the field of rail transit, solar city, Boring, and neuroscience and brain-computer interface company Neuralink, all of which have made achievements on their respective tracks, which has helped Tesla strengthen the technology label. Zheng Yun believes that Tesla's marketing model can be analyzed and discussed, but it is difficult to be copied.
If Tesla is irreplaceable in the automotive industry, then as technology companies have entered the electric vehicle industry, the challenges facing Tesla have suddenly increased.
Since 2020, technology companies have made a big attack: Huawei released the smart car solution brand Hi; Changan Automobile teamed up with Huawei and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to create a brand-new high-end smart car brand; Alibaba, SAIC and Pudong New Area jointly build Zhiji Automobile. In 202 1 year, technology companies made cars directly. With their own traffic and funds, Baidu and Xiaomi officially announced that they would build cars. Didi has also been reported to build cars recently, and technology companies have gradually moved from behind the scenes to the stage.
As Chen Qingtai, chairman of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, told Auto Finance, the first half of the automobile revolution was electrified, and the second half was intelligent. Intelligent and networked automobiles are the development direction, and Internet technology companies are bound to have more and more voice.
At present, several competitive forces have been formed in the field of new energy vehicles: first, foreign capital and joint ventures represented by Tesla, Daimler and Toyota; Second, independent car companies represented by SAIC, BAIC and BYD; Third, the new car-making forces represented by Wei Lai and Tucki. Since the second half of 2020, technology companies represented by Apple, Baidu, Xiaomi and Didi have sprung up everywhere, forming the fourth force.
Traditional OEM is also a force to be reckoned with. Analysts generally expect that the total car sales of Audi AG will catch up with Tesla as soon as next year, when the two companies can deliver about 6.5438+0.2 million cars respectively.
"If Tesla is the apple of the electric vehicle industry, Volkswagen is the next Samsung". Patrick hummel, an analyst at UBS Securities, dismantled a Volkswagen ID.3 and found that its platform was cost competitive compared with Tesla, with the best battery energy density and efficiency among similar products. Volkswagen's advantage lies in its scale, its value orientation similar to Samsung's-a trustworthy global brand, high-quality hardware and mass production.
Tesla's attraction is not absolute, but can be replaced by more valuable options. Stewart Strop, senior director of automobile retail at J.D.Power, believes that the remaining problem for electric vehicle manufacturers other than Tesla is how to educate and explain that their products can provide higher value than Tesla.
Who is another more valuable choice in this magnificent automobile leather hit? It has not been highlighted. But it is certain that Tesla's unique era is about to become a thing of the past.
Guo Yu, an intern of this journal, also contributed to this article.
This article was originally published in the column "Cars and Travel" in April 20021and 12 of Caijing magazine.