In this regard, Li, vice president of the Middle East Society of China and president of the China Arab Institute of Ningxia University, analyzed that, first of all, military coup is a tradition in Turkey. Turkish soldiers are a very important force in Turkish politics. For a long time, soldiers were widely regarded as staunch defenders of Kemalism, and this role won the hearts of the people. Therefore, the position of the Turkish army in the country is very lofty.
In history, Turkish soldiers seized power in two successful coups, 1960 and 1980, and the military took power. 197 1 and 1997 twice forced the then prime minister to step down in the form of ultimatums. Although it did not go to the front desk, it led to the collapse of the government through intervention. Since the beginning of this century, there have been two obvious interventions by military personnel, one in 2003 and the other in 2007. In 2007, the military tried to interfere in the presidential election of then Prime Minister Gul.
Secondly, when the military is in power, it is often when there are problems in Turkey's internal affairs and diplomacy. Now, Turkey is at home and abroad. At home, terrorist attacks continue to occur, more than 3 million Syrian refugees have overwhelmed the government, the Kurdish problem has become more and more serious, and the entire Turkish society has become increasingly divided; In recent years, Erdogan, as president, has been plotting to change the parliamentary system into the presidential system. Therefore, the voice of attacking Erdogan's dictatorship at home and abroad is getting higher and higher, which also gives the forces in the army the opportunity to launch a coup.
Why did the coup fail?
Why did the coup fail? Li said that judging from the current situation in Turkey, the conditions for the army to successfully launch a coup as in the past are increasingly lacking. There are three main reasons.
First, the political situation in Turkey has undergone tremendous changes. Erdogan's Justice and Development Party has been the ruling party since 2002, and its position has been continuously strengthened. In the long-term ruling process, Erdogan constantly competed with military power and gradually took the initiative. Especially after 2007, Erdogan has been cleaning up officers with coup plots. It can be said that his strategy against the army is becoming more and more skillful and more dominant.
Second, Turkish society is increasingly not accepting military intervention. Since the Orthodox Party came to power, Turkey's economic development has obviously accelerated, and the people have gradually become accustomed to leaving politics to politicians, and less and less accept the model that the military plays a role as a political force. A very important condition for a successful coup is to win the support of the people. However, judging from this coup, after the army launched a coup, the people did not buy it, but took to the streets to stop the army; The opposition did not welcome the coup, and they condemned it with one voice. It can be seen that literati politics has been deeply rooted in Turkey.
Third, within the military, the coup was not supported. This time, only a few officers staged a coup, none of them was the mainstream force of the army, and none of the commanders of the armed forces supported the coup. There is no joint force within the army, nor is it a unified action. Of course, a coup is hard to succeed.
Fourth, in addition to Turkey's domestic conditions, the international environment Turkey faces today is not conducive to a coup. After the coup began, the international community expressed its support for the democratically elected government and condemned the coup. In this international environment, it is impossible for a single soldier to launch a successful coup.
How did the coup affect the situation in Turkey?
It is said that this coup is a bitter plan planned and directed by Erdogan, and its purpose is to help Erdogan achieve his political goals.
So, what impact will this failed coup have on Erdogan's government? In this regard, Li said that the atmosphere of the coup is conducive to Erdogan's promotion of his own political process. Erdogan has been trying to change Turkey's political system and turn the cabinet system into a presidential system. After the attempted coup, he will make full use of and exaggerate the situation to form an atmosphere conducive to his political process. In addition, Erdogan will clean up the army next, which will enable him to effectively crack down on alien forces and help strengthen his control over the army.