The war against sovereign Iraq, which was manipulated by the United States and bypassed the United Nations, has entered its third week. Because of the American war adventure and inadequate preparation, the tenacious resistance of Iraqi soldiers and civilians and the strong opposition of the international community, the American plan of quick victory failed. At present, both sides of the war are adjusting their deployment, accumulating strength and preparing for a new round of contest on the battlefield. At the same time, the international community has also launched a struggle and contest around Iraq's post-war reconstruction, the composition and operation mode of the transitional government. There is no doubt that what kind of government Iraq will establish after the war, whether it is arranged by the United States or elected by the United Nations under its supervision, will have an important impact not only on Iraq itself, but also on the stability of the pattern and development direction in the Middle East and even the world in the coming period. It is not only a dispute over economic interests, but also a dispute over what kind of development "model" to establish. In the final analysis, this is still a struggle between the "unipolar" and "multipolar" worlds. 1. What are the current goals and long-term strategic attempts of the United States to launch the war against Iraq? According to the American explanation, the purpose of the war against Iraq is to disarm Iraq, destroy weapons of mass destruction and overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime. However, under the superficial pretext of war, there are still hidden current and long-term strategic intentions of the United States that are difficult to declare but have been reflected in policy actions. As far as the current war goals are concerned, the main ones are: 1, overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime and establishing the transitional government of Iraq led by the United States. To this end, first, continue to implement the war plan of quick victory. Including sending more troops to Iraq on a large scale, stepping up air strikes, weakening the fighting power of the National Guard, encircling Baghdad, forcing Saddam Hussein's regime to step down and realizing regime change. The United States will try its best to avoid falling into a protracted war dilemma. The second is to establish a transitional government in Iraq as soon as possible. This will help to get rid of many difficulties in the United States at present. The emergence of such a government as soon as possible will help to form a new political center, unite a considerable number of Iraqis, and reduce the pressure of guerrilla warfare encountered by the United States on the battlefield. At the same time, it announced the completion of the first phase of the war and won international and domestic support. 2. Leading the post-war reconstruction of Iraq and grabbing huge economic benefits. Because Iraq is rich in oil resources, it is not difficult to pay huge reconstruction funds after the war. It is precisely because of this that American war policymakers took a fancy to this point and unilaterally launched this unpopular war in a few countries at a huge expense and despite the strong opposition of the international community. Therefore, like the war against Iraq, the United States will continue to unilaterally dominate the post-war reconstruction in Iraq, at least in essence. Due to the destruction of Iraq's urban infrastructure and oil exploration, processing and refining facilities, huge engineering orders will inevitably form. In particular, American companies can take advantage of the leading position of the United States in reconstruction work and obtain unfair monopoly benefits by over-reporting and under-reporting. In fact, the war is not over yet, and the United States has handed over all the funds frozen in Iraq to its own company. These incomes will eventually make up for the huge expenses of the United States in the war. 3. Revitalize the image of a big country, rebuild international and domestic confidence, safeguard the hegemony of the US dollar, and stimulate the recovery of the US economy. Due to the impact of the "9 1 1" incident, investors' confidence in the American market was hit, the American stock market was in a slump, and the economy was always hovering at the bottom. In this case, the American rulers need to fight a war too much, and show the strength of the United States by a quick victory, so as to revive investors' confidence in the sustainable development of the United States, so as to get rid of the predicament of the sustained economic downturn and reproduce the strong growth momentum since the 1990s. More importantly, through the huge expenditure of the war, the prosperity of American arms has promoted transportation and labor services, stimulated consumer spending, and made the depressed American economy get out of the trough as soon as possible. This is why American war decision makers have made a plan of quick victory, and even in the face of strong resistance on the battlefield, they are still desperate to increase the intensity of destruction and strive to end the war as soon as possible. From the long-term strategic goal, the United States hopes to support and establish a pro-American government in Iraq through the war against Iraq and become a model for exporting American "democracy" and "democratization" to other Arab countries throughout the Middle East. From controlling Iraq and building a bridgehead to controlling the whole Middle East, using oil as a weapon has influenced and driven other major countries in the world and realized the dream of the United States to unify the world. Second, the three endings of the Iraq war and their influence on the world prospect (1) The ending of the United States' total victory and its influence on the world prospect. According to the expectation of American war planners, the war will end in a few days or weeks, Saddam Hussein's regime will be overthrown smoothly, evidence of Iraq's production and hiding of weapons of mass destruction will be discovered or found, and a new Iraqi government led by the United States will be established. The death toll of American troops on the battlefield is controlled at a standard generally accepted by the American people. In this way, it is the victorious ending of the war against Iraq. And start the process of transforming the Middle East and the world according to the above strategic steps. However, judging from the two weeks since the start of the war, the progress of the war, the death toll of American troops, the establishment of the new Iraqi government and the leading post-war reconstruction work have all faced many difficulties, and it is impossible for the United States to completely win the war against Iraq. This has disrupted the pace of war in the United States and delayed the process in which the United States began to exert influence on the world. The United States must re-plan its strategic blueprint on the existing basis. (2) The end or "disastrous victory" of the war that the United States paid a considerable price and its influence on the world prospect. With the current military strength and national strength of the United States, it is determined to fight the Iraq war. After paying a considerable price, we can still achieve the goal of overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime and destroying the National Guard. However, such a victory is far from what the United States originally expected. Moreover, different ways and different costs will have different effects on the world's prospects. 1. With the existing combat mode and increased force scale, the purpose of the war against Iraq can be achieved at a certain cost. In the first half of April, all the additional troops arrived in the Iraqi battlefield and began to fight, effectively weakening the strength of the Iraqi army outside Baghdad, causing little damage to Baghdad's infrastructure and little collateral damage to civilians. The operation of "cutting off the snakehead" went smoothly, and Saddam Hussein and his core members were killed or lost control of the state power and army. America's image of war has not been more condemned by all countries in the world. Under this circumstance, the United States will insist on establishing a new Iraqi government under its leadership, adopt a more selfish policy on issues involving economic interests in post-war reconstruction, contract all or major projects to British and American companies, and reap considerable war dividends from them; For countries in the Middle East, it is possible to turn to new goals after completing the democratic transformation in Iraq. Comprehensive analysis, the order of these targets may be Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran and so on. Until the Middle East achieves democratic transformation or complete control. And then affect the rest of the world. 2. Use more destructive fighting methods to achieve the purpose of war. After the surge, the progress of the battlefield was still not smooth, so the air strikes were intensified, and a large number of aerial fuel bombs and cluster bombs were used, which caused great damage to Bagh City, with a sharp increase in civilian casualties and great war damage itself. At this cost, Baghdad was occupied and the new Iraqi regime was forcibly formed. However, the image of war in the United States is even worse, and the world anti-war camp is therefore strong. The main battle group was divided and gradually disintegrated. The military occupation of the United States was resisted and resisted by the entire Arab nation. Saddam Hussein's life and death are unknown, and guerrilla warfare in Iraq is in full swing. Under such circumstances, the new Iraqi regime manipulated by the United States cannot operate effectively and cannot be recognized by all countries in the world. Post-war reconstruction cannot begin. The United States will be trapped in the quagmire of guerrilla warfare in Iraq, and its energy to intervene in other parts of the world will be greatly restricted. After a long-term international struggle and the Iraqi people's own resistance, it is possible to re-elect a new Iraqi regime under the supervision of the United Nations and start post-war reconstruction. But the influence of the United States on world affairs will decline. 3. After using weapons of mass destruction, the battlefield goal is achieved. The US military suffered heavy casualties on the battlefield and used weapons of mass destruction against Iraqi troops, causing heavy casualties among Iraqi civilians and troops. The war image of the United States was completely destroyed, and the American war group stepped down under international and domestic opposition. Since then, the strategy has shrunk and the interference in world affairs has been significantly reduced. As a pole of the world, the United States participates in handling world affairs in an equal and democratic way. (3) The war dragged on for a long time, and the United States was deeply involved in the battlefield in Iraq and could not deploy itself. Neither dare to use weapons of mass destruction, nor can they do anything about guerrilla tactics and urban street fighting in Iraq. The main force of the American army was dragged down in Iraq and shouldered heavy war debts. The domestic economy has completely entered recession, the anti-war forces are unprecedentedly high, and the main battle group has stepped down. In order to get away from Iraq, the new American leader had to decide all the issues of post-war Iraq from regime formation to post-war reconstruction under the leadership of the United Nations. The national strength of the United States has been weakened, problems and weaknesses have been fully exposed, and the world has entered a multipolar era. As can be seen from the above, the first ending is impossible for a beautiful woman. The United States will strive for the first case of the second result, while trying to avoid all other situations and situations. For the people of other countries in the world, we will strive for the third ending. Only such an outcome is the gospel of the people of the world, and we can create a beautiful world that restricts and promotes each other. "One polarization" is only beneficial to the United States and a few developed countries that follow closely. Most people in the world will suffer from it and be enslaved and driven away by the United States. Resources are occupied and owned by the United States, and wealth is wasted and squandered by the United States. This is a very unequal world, so it has been resisted and opposed by more and more countries and people in the world. Third, what did the United States expose in the Iraq war? After two weeks of fighting between the United States and Iraq on the battlefield, no matter how the war ended, the Iraq war still exposed something that we could not easily see before or in a non-war state. (A) exposed the limitations of the high-tech war in the United States. Since the last Gulf War, the United States ended the Kosovo war with zero casualties, won almost complete victory in the Afghan war, successfully settled the backyard of Europe and extended its influence to Central Asia, realizing what it wanted to do but failed to do during the Cold War. Since the 1990s, the economy has been growing strongly for more than ten years, and the technology is far ahead of all competitors, and the comprehensive national strength has been improved unprecedentedly. In addition, the exaggeration and exaggeration of American public opinion tools have made the myth that the American army is powerful and invincible. In this Iraq war, American war policymakers originally hoped to rely on this myth to achieve the goal of a quick victory by actively creating momentum, and thus began to implement the American strategic concept. However, the practice of the two-week Iraq war proves that the American high-tech war model is effective for small countries with weak will and limited for countries with strong will above the medium level. It is effective for countries with prominent domestic ethnic contradictions and unstable political power itself, and has limited deterrent effect on countries and people who swear to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity; It is effective for war objectives and small-scale war forms, and the excessive war role that arouses national resistance will be greatly limited. The current development of the Iraq war will make the American ruling group fully aware of the limitations of its war mode, thus restraining its impulsiveness and adventure; It will also let the people of other countries see the essence of war, see the sympathy of the people, see the role played by the spirit of people's unity and resistance to the death in the war, enhance their confidence in defeating powerful enemies, and restrict the war adventures of "hegemonic" countries to some extent. (2) Revealed the deception and cruelty of the American war. In recent years, there is a theory circulating in the western military circles that due to the progress of technology and the improvement of strike accuracy, modern warfare can cause minimal harm to civilians, with low war damage and little impact on the environment, that is, the so-called high-tech warfare is civilized and clean. This theory is also enjoyed by some military workers in our country. High-tech war is truly civilized and clean. What is the real intention of western military circles? Both the Kosovo war in the last century and the ongoing Iraq war have brought great damage to a country's infrastructure, survival and ecological environment, and banning the use of cluster bombs and oil and gas bombs is an unprecedented massacre on the battlefield. How can we be "civilized" and "clean"? The so-called clean and civilized high-tech war can only encourage hegemonic countries to use force more unrestricted and frequently, thus deceiving their own country and the people of the world. The so-called "civilization" and "cleanliness" can only be achieved in one situation, that is, in the face of hegemonic war threats, giving up resistance, surrendering without a fight and accepting slavery. Its essence is to provide theoretical basis for the so-called "rational" surrender. War is destruction. From the Kosovo war to the present Iraq war, there is no exception. It's just that sometimes it's dark, and it takes a long time to show it. For example, more than 50,000 American soldiers were deeply affected by the Gulf War Syndrome. Not to mention the harm caused by the use of chemical and biological weapons and battlefield nuclear weapons to the earth's environment and human mind. We must not issue more "passports" to hegemonic countries' war behavior on the grounds of "civilization" and "cleanliness" of high-tech wars. (3) Exposed the hypocrisy of American democracy. The United States is proud of being a "democratic" country, and even more proud of exporting American-style "democracy". Because of this, it does not hesitate to use aircraft missiles to bring "democracy" to all parts of the world. The Iraq war was launched in the name of establishing a "democratic model" in the Middle East and "liberating the Iraqi people". Democracy needs to be exported and imposed on others by force. What a lie this "democracy" is. The United States, the largest democratic country and the most "democratic" country, ignored the opposition of most countries and people in the world and bypassed the United Nations to wage war against a sovereign country. This shows that when did the United States talk about democracy to countries such as weak countries and small countries? In the final analysis, the "democracy" of the United States is self-interested, powerful and domestic, and the "democracy" exported by the war must be hypocritical and cruel. (4) Exposed the greed of the American and British war groups. No matter how many beautiful labels and flowers the American and British groups put on the Iraq war, the selfish nature of its war nature was exposed in the course of the war. The war continues. In order to gain more domestic support for the war, British war decision makers "unintentionally" revealed through the news media that Britain would gain the management and control of oil fields in southern Iraq after the war. The United States handed over all the $6,543.804 billion frozen before the war to American companies as the cost of post-war reconstruction, which aroused the dissatisfaction of Australia, one of the participating countries, and Australian Prime Minister Howard refused the invitation of the President of the United States to hold a summit meeting of the United States, Britain and Canada in Washington. The dispute over the dominance of post-war reconstruction in Iraq has become the second battlefield outside the Iraq war. Because Iraq's post-war reconstruction means huge engineering orders. Whoever leads the post-war reconstruction will have the project contracting right, which will also enable domestic companies to obtain huge "international corruption" dollars on the basis of low input and high output. Because Iraq is rich in oil resources, there is no problem of paying reconstruction funds. Judging from the positions expressed by various countries at present, Iraq's post-war reconstruction will become the second thorny issue no less than the victory or defeat of the battlefield. (5) Exposed the long-term and expansionary nature of American strategic attempts. Through various speeches of American leaders before the war, we can realize the long-term and expansionary nature of American strategy. In September last year, at the same time that the United States carried out the second-stage attack on Iraq, the Bush administration put forward the report "National Security Strategy of the United States". There are two major innovations in the report: first, the strategic principle of "preemptive strike" is formally established; The second is to establish the ultimate goal of promoting western democratic values around the world. However, the numerous comments of world public opinion on the former conceal the due attention to the latter. However, the former is only a means, and the latter is an end. Andrew Chervich, a professor at the School of International Relations at Boston University, wrote in an article entitled "Bush's Grand Strategy": "In this report, the US government not only shows the intention of the United States to maintain US military hegemony forever, but also shows the desire to reshape the international order by force (this desire is almost eager). This new strategy puts the upcoming decisive battle with Saddam Hussein in a larger context. It shows that under the guise of the war on terrorism, seeking to overthrow the dictator is only one step under this grand plan, and its ultimate goal is to rebuild the world according to our model. " In June 5438+February last year, Richard haas, Director of the State Council Policy Planning Office, delivered a long speech entitled "Democratizing the Muslim World" at the Washington Council on Foreign Relations. He said, "We know that the United States can and should do more; Promoting democracy, including democracy in the Muslim world, is the primary goal of President Bush and Secretary Powell. " Just before the war, Bush himself publicly stated that the US military would liberate the Iraqi people and set a democratic example for the whole Middle East there. He said: "A liberated Iraq will become a force for freedom ... and push this important region to change the world." Enlightenment from the Iraq War (1) Maintaining good international political relations, especially benign interaction with neighboring countries and regions, is an important condition for preventing and containing the war. The Iraq war has given us beneficial enlightenment from both positive and negative aspects. Turkey refused to open its territory to the US military, which led to the abortion of the US military's plan to open up the northern battlefield; Kuwait provided a series of support for the United States, such as offensive base and war material support, which enabled the United States to successfully launch the war against Iraq. This enlightens us to properly handle relations with neighboring countries and regions, solve territorial disputes and problems left over from history, seek common ground while reserving differences, make mutual understanding and accommodation, seek business opportunities from cooperation, seek development from interaction, seek win-win and win-win through bilateral and multilateral friendly cooperation, promote the prosperity and development of the region, and thus curb and prevent wars that may be brought about by hegemonism. (2) National unity and indomitable spirit of struggle are powerful guarantees to deter aggression. The participation of the Northern Alliance of Afghanistan in the war is an important reason for the rapid collapse of the Taliban. Shiites in Iraq overcame their differences and fought against the enemy when their country was invaded, which was the key for the United States to encounter major obstacles on the battlefield. For a multi-ethnic country with a population of 654.38+0.3 billion, nothing can stop the pace of our national rejuvenation as long as the nationalities are United and the people are full of indomitable spirit. This is a major issue that we must pay attention to while developing the economy. (3) It is an effective way to prevent the war from causing great damage to our construction achievements by establishing the idea of offensive defense and actively attacking the enemies around us who are gathering for war. After more than 20 years of reform and opening up, seven coastal provinces and cities in China have accumulated huge production capacity and development foundation. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, its gross national product and production capacity account for more than 50% of the country. If the enemy is allowed to prepare for war calmly and bombard indiscriminately step by step, our economic foundation will be greatly damaged. We have the right and responsibility to actively attack the threats that have been formed and the assembled war forces to ensure the achievements of reform and construction. (4) Flexible battlefield strategy is a reliable means to control the enemy and achieve the war goal smoothly. Drawing lessons from the Gulf War, Iraq adopted the struggle strategy of sticking to its position, decentralizing its command, taking the initiative to attack and delaying changes, withstood the first attack of the US military and began to introduce the war into urban street fighting, which the US military was not good at. It is refreshing for the US military not to stick to its past success and actively innovate its tactics and tactics. For example, the initial "decapitation" action, the rapid advancement of air-ground integration, and the combination of active battlefield momentum and strong and uninterrupted psychological attacks are all aimed at implementing the pre-war strategy of "attacking the head, shaking the morale of the army and winning quickly". The determination. Although this new method of warfare has become an unsuccessful attempt because of its adventure and insufficient preparation, it is worth learning and using for reference in studying operational theory and guiding operational practice. It also warns us that there cannot be two identical wars in the world. It is necessary to study the past war cases and operational theories, but it is also very important to pay attention to and track the theoretical design and operational experiments being formed in "big country" countries, and analyze and predict their operational effects under various battlefield conditions. Only in this way can we win the theoretical contest first, and always maintain the correct traction and guiding role of theory in army building and equipment development, so as to maintain the initiative and win the intervention war launched by power politics. (5) Building a strong national defense force is an important task to safeguard national security. Our defensive national defense policy determines that China can only maintain a limited combat force, but this does not exclude us from building a lean, efficient and counterattack-capable military force, mainly naval and air forces and strategic missile units. The Iraq war has taught us a profound lesson. Contemporary hegemonism can find any excuse to wage war. "No evidence is evidence." If you don't meet all the demands of the invaders, war will be inevitable for you. This is the emerging "jungle principle" of "the law of the jungle". In addition, we have no room for compromise on issues of principle involving national sovereignty, territorial integrity and the reunification of the motherland. Only by developing the economy and maintaining an appropriate national defense force can we create a good environment for construction and development. (VI) Paying attention to the construction of a comprehensive national security environment is an inevitable requirement for ensuring long-term stability. Contemporary national security is security in a comprehensive sense, including not only traditional territorial integrity and inviolability of sovereignty, but also economic security, environmental security, political security and many other fields. Especially for an emerging power like ours, we should pay more attention to the construction of a comprehensive security environment. For example, the Iraq war, which the United States couldn't wait to launch, implicitly controlled the oil and gas resources in the Middle East and restricted and influenced the strategic goals of other big countries. Only by making early plans in a series of fields, such as food security, energy security, strategic resource security and strategic passage security, and making good reserves and preparations in advance, can we remain active and invincible in the complex international competitive environment and better safeguard and develop national interests.