Tsinghua University released the 20 1 1 annual Social Progress Research Report-

Beware that "the stone is addicted to it and doesn't even want to cross the river."

"Today, the system reform has been in trouble, which can be said to be an indisputable fact. In recent years, some important reform measures have been shelved and the political system reform has not been further promoted. "

The Social Progress Research Institute of Tsinghua University Kaifeng Development Research Institute and the Social Development Research Group of Tsinghua University Sociology Department released the 20 1 1 Annual Series Research Report today, pointing out that the "transition trap" is what China needs to be most vigilant at present.

Transformation trap: halfway through the reform, "I don't want to cross the river"

After the new century 10 years, domestic observers said that "the temperament of China society is changing"; Others think that the reform is over and dead. "If the 1980s was characterized by reform, the 1990s was characterized by opening-up in the later period of reform, and in the recent 10 year, stability became the most basic tone."

What the hell is going on here? There are two popular explanations at present. First, there is a "middle income trap" experienced by developing countries, and second, the reform is in a state of stagnation or even retrogression.

This report, written by Professor Kumar from the Department of Sociology of Tsinghua University, points out that what China needs to watch out for most now is not the above two things, but the "transition trap".

The "transformation trap" means that the process of reform and transformation will produce a vested interest group, which will prevent further changes and demand that the transitional system be stereotyped to form a "mixed system" that maximizes interests, thus leading to the deformity of economic and social development and the continuous accumulation of economic and social problems.

"It's like being in an unfinished building. When people simply decorate it, they will cook, get married and have children, and it will become a world. "

The report believes: "In the past, we overemphasized the advantages of gradual reform, but now, the danger of a country with gradual reform falling into the transition trap will greatly increase. Because in the gradual process, there are too many opportunities to stagnate and finalize the transformation process, and the conditions for forming vested interest groups are more favorable. "

"In fact, the dilemma of China's reform is not what some people say:' The reform has begun to enter the deep water area and cannot be changed'. At the beginning of the reform, it was a realistic choice to put forward' crossing the river by feeling the stones', but the problem now is that you may be addicted to crossing the river by feeling the stones, or even don't want to cross the river. "

Take stock of five symptoms: refusing reform on the grounds of "maintaining stability"

The report analyzes the "five symptoms" of the transition trap. The first symptom is that the economic development is heavy and increasingly deformed.

The report points out that the most realistic economic problem in China is "not stagnation, but hyperactivity and abnormal development". On the one hand, the potential of development, industrialization and urbanization in backward areas still exists. On the other hand, the system determines the government's ability to "slow down" and "stop a lag". "In the pattern of transformation trap, private enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises, are in a difficult situation, and the private power of economic activities has declined. Therefore, they can only rely more and more on the government to promote large-scale demolition and construction, big projects, big events, big buildings, big squares and even big statues. "

The report calls it "incremental dependence". "In the transition trap, people have not solved the problem through important institutional changes, so they can only hope to make a big cake and use the incremental development to alleviate the problem without touching the vested interests."

In this incremental dependence, the economy has grown and the people may not benefit; But if it does not grow, people will suffer.

The second symptom is that the institutional factors of transformation have been finalized.

Surprisingly, the report pointed out that "the loss of reform motivation is not only a question of the leadership's willingness to reform, but also a question of reform among the people."

"If the people now demand to continue reform, and vested interests are there to obstruct and oppose reform, things may be relatively simple." According to the analysis of the report, "the problem is that vested interest groups distort the reform and gain benefits in the name of reform, which has caused the general public to resist the reform. As we have seen in real life, ordinary people get jumpy when they talk about reform. As a result, not only has substantive reform been blocked, but the word is also losing popularity. "

For example, in the medical reform in some areas, it is necessary to reduce unreasonably high drug prices, correspondingly increase medical prices, and change the phenomenon of "taking medicine to support medicine". However, after a while, the price of medicine was high again. As a result, the price of drugs and medical care has changed from high in the past to high in both, and the burden on patients has further increased.

The third symptom is that the social structure tends to be stereotyped and solidified into a fractured society of "polarization between the rich and the poor".

The report reminds us that the current social atmosphere or social mentality is noteworthy: First, due to the high social threshold, social vitality has greatly declined. Second, the class opposition is prominent, and the collective consciousness of "hating the rich" and "being too poor" is spreading. Third, the general sense of imbalance has been replaced by the sense of despair of some people. "For example, among the peasants, migrant workers, urban bottom and other groups, there is a sense of hopelessness. The intensification of some social contradictions is often related to this factor. "

The fourth symptom is the cautious psychology of misjudging the formation of social contradictions and the policy orientation of "maintaining stability"

"In recent years, social contradictions have increased significantly. It should be said that most of the contradictions that were normal in the market economy will not pose a serious threat to the political power and the basic institutional framework. However, in recent years, serious misjudgments have occurred in relevant parties, forming the illusion of instability. "

On the basis of this judgment, a "large-scale stability" model is formed. It links all social events with stability, "mobilizing social resources in an all-round way to maintain stability, regularizing and institutionalizing some special practices in special periods, and putting China's political, economic and social life in a very abnormal state."

The report pointed out that refusing substantive reform on the grounds of "maintaining stability" is a typical "transformation trap" logic. "Rigid stability thinking and high-profile stability model often lead to the intensification of social contradictions, and even turn some contradictions in daily life into doubts and antipathy to the system."

The fifth symptom is that social collapse is becoming more and more obvious. "First of all, some local governments are out of control, violently intercepted and bloody demolished; The direct result of power out of control is that the ability of society to maintain fairness and justice is declining. As a result, the bottom line of society has fallen, morality has fallen, and the loss of professional ethics and professional ethics has become a quite common phenomenon. "

How is the "transition trap" formed?

How did the system under the "transformation trap" gradually take shape?

The report points out that it is characterized by a strange alliance between power and market. "It is often a combination of power and market means. Power means is convenient, and market means is convenient. "

According to the analysis of the report, in the process of the rise of vested interest groups, the following processes have played an important role: "official defection", state-owned enterprise restructuring, mineral resources development, land development, real estate fever, and enterprise listing financing ... vested interests have rapidly dominated land, minerals and financial resources, involving infrastructure, urban development, public works, rural water conservancy construction and energy, electricity, communications, finance and other fields.

"The so-called China model is the development model derived from this system. On the premise of continuing to strengthen administrative capacity, we will decompose the market system into market elements and reorganize market elements through power to achieve a high degree of monopoly on resources. "

Therefore, the report also analyzes the current chaotic situation of the debate between "Left" and "Right" in China's ideological circles. "Because in the past many years, people have always regarded power and market as two diametrically opposite things, and the relationship between them has changed."

In this case, "Left" can be understood as vigilance against "market" or "capital" factors in this mixed system, and "Right" can be understood as vigilance against "power" factors. Conversely, "Left" is calling for "power" and "Right" is calling for "market or capital".

"Before breaking the transition trap, no matter what kind of call, it may be borrowed by vested interest groups and become a means of maximizing interests."

When people are still debating whether the market-oriented reform in China is incomplete or excessive, the connection between the non-marketization of some powers and the marketization of commodities has become the most favorable way to make profits. "For example, obtaining cheap land and resources from the administration and then selling them to the market at a high price is more conducive to the accumulation of wealth by vested interests than this way?"

What broke the "transformation trap"?

The report acknowledges that the real driving force for changing society is getting weaker and weaker. "The reason why the transition trap can become a trap is because the system at this time has made careful arrangements to curb change, resource monopoly is becoming more and more serious, interest groups are sitting on the big side, and social control is becoming more and more strict. But this does not mean that society has no motivation for change at all. "

"At present, the dissatisfaction with the stagnation of reform is increasing, and the call for change is also condensing. In addition, because the circle of vested interest groups is shrinking, many groups are thrown out of the circle. These are the real drivers of change. The question is how to turn this potential driving force into a real driving force. "

According to the report, there are only three ways to get out of the "transformation trap": first, the government implements the reform of top-level design and has corresponding forces to promote it; The second is to use the existing possible factors to promote the development of social forces and make social forces become the driving force to break the status quo; The third is the passive change driven by contradictions and crises, "but it depends on the introspection and consciousness of vested interest groups."

In either case, the report calls for four "inevitable" major measures:

The first is "the direction of integration into the mainstream civilization of the world". According to the report, the core values of this "world mainstream civilization" include "freedom, rationality, individual rights, market economy, democratic politics and a society ruled by law".

Second, "rebuild social vitality through political system reform."

"Political system reform and social construction are the most realistic driving forces to get out of the transition trap." The report believes that solving the black-box operation, promoting the open operation of power and forming a mechanism to restrict power can be regarded as a breakthrough in political system reform. In recent years, the central government has been promoting the disclosure of government information.

Third, carry out the top-level design of reform on the basis of public participation.

"In fact, in recent years, an important reason for the reform is the lack of public participation in the reform. In the 1980s, the reform was carried out with the passionate support of idealism, and the disadvantages of insufficient public participation have not been fully revealed. However, after idealism faded, interests became an important factor leading the reform, and the reform lacking public participation could easily turn into a large-scale "stolen goods sharing". "There are many obvious examples of state-owned enterprise reform in the 1990s."

Fourth, the report finally calls for "fairness and justice" to condense the knowledge of reform.

"In the transition trap, people feel the deepest and most dissatisfied that fairness and justice have been destroyed. Therefore, what can unify the understanding of reform is to promote fairness and justice as the basic value and goal of reform. In this sense, democracy and the rule of law should be the core content of China's future reform. "

"In today's era, what China needs most is a kind of courage, a kind of courage to face up to the pattern of vested interests, break through the pattern of vested interests, break the logic of' transformation trap' and get out of the current deadlock and predicament." The report concluded.