Class: 09 Economics (II) ClassNo.: Xc095802 17 Name: Jin Fang.
I. Introduction
In recent years, the rapid growth of China's national economy mainly depends on investment and export, while the contribution rate of residents' consumption to China's new GDP share has decreased year by year. The increasingly serious problem of insufficient effective demand has become an obstacle to healthy economic development. China must change the situation of over-reliance on import and export to promote national economic growth, actively expand domestic demand and promote consumption. There are many factors that affect residents' consumption. At present, the imperfection of the social security system is an important reason for the continuous low consumption behavior of Chinese residents.
Under the modern social security system, the impact of social security on residents' consumption has aroused widespread concern among economists and sociologists. Only on the basis of predecessors' research, induction and summary can we get the existing theoretical achievements and shortcomings and conduct further in-depth research.
Second, the theoretical analysis of social security expenditure and residents' consumption level
(A) theoretical analysis of foreign social security expenditure and residents' consumption level
Ge Mulei, Liu and Zhou (20 10) believe that if the government does not provide a series of safety nets for ordinary residents, such as unemployment, work injury, old-age insurance and social relief, in order to ensure their future life, the most sensible thing is to reduce their current consumption as much as possible and increase their future savings. Kohilikoff (1979) used life cycle function to analyze local equilibrium and overall equilibrium, and found that retirement effect only partially offset the substitution effect of social security on capital stock, so social security would increase residents' savings and reduce consumption.
Barro (1978)' s theory of intergenerational transfer payment holds that the family club theory of life cycle tears the connection between generations, and his theory takes savings as an intermediary variable. Because the social security system may be compensated by intergenerational transfer payment, it cannot partially offset the crowding-out effect. If everyone has the same preferences, endowments and jobs and pays the same taxes and social security fees, then people's choice of retirement age will not be different because of social security. In this case, if there is an inheritance motive, then the effect of social security on residents' consumption level is zero.
(B) theoretical analysis of domestic social security expenditure and residents' consumption level
With the reform of social security system and the increase of uncertainty of residents' consumption, many scholars tend to study the influence of social security system on residents' consumption with preventive savings theory. Cang He Pei (2004)
It is believed that the amount of precautionary savings is closely related to the degree of uncertainty and the intensity of consumers' cautious motives. On the premise that consumers' cautious motives remain unchanged, the higher the uncertainty, the more precautionary savings there will be. Tao Changqi and Qi (2007) made a comparative study on the consumption behavior of urban and rural residents in China by using the hypothesis of precautionary saving and liquidity constraint and the spatial state model, and concluded that both urban and rural residents have obvious precautionary saving motives, and the precautionary saving motives of urban and rural residents are alternating. Zhang Jihai (2008) proposed that residents facing life uncertainty would be encouraged to increase precautionary savings, thus reducing current consumption. Shang Wencheng (20 1 1) believes that the main reason for the rapid increase of savings in China in recent years is that China residents have made more preventive savings.
Some scholars study the influence of social security system on residents' consumption from the perspective of sound social security system. Chen (2002) through the theoretical analysis of Gini coefficient, Engel coefficient and consumption tendency, thinks that through the perfect social security mechanism which is suitable for the market system, the certainty factors in economic life can be increased, so that residents can form more stable and rational psychological expectations, thus increasing marginal consumption tendency, releasing a large number of residents' deposits and generating huge immediate consumption demand. Under the background of the current national policy of increasing residents' income, we should improve the level of social security, improve residents' consumption expectation, increase consumption tendency and increase spot consumption by improving and promising (Chen Qi and Huang Ling (2004)). Wang Yun and (200 1) believe that the expansion of residents' consumption demand depends on residents' consumption concepts, behaviors and preferences, which is not only related to people's income level and expectations of future income and expenditure, but also closely related to the establishment and improvement of social security system.
Zhu (2006) made an analysis from the perspective of institutional transformation, and thought that the uncertainty of current residents' consumption and savings behavior in China originated from the current economic transformation in China, and the change of social security system was a major issue in the economic transformation. The social security system is inconsistent with the ownership structure in the transitional period. The imperfection of pension, medical care and unemployment insurance has enhanced residents' expenditure expectations and affected residents' consumption behavior.
(C) Theoretical analysis of social security expenditure and residents' consumption level in Zhejiang Province
Li Kai, He and (20 10) believe that the income level of urban residents in Zhejiang Province is higher than that of rural residents, and the various security subsidies that urban residents receive are also the reasons for their higher consumption. The income of rural residents is very unstable. In the past, we often said that "relying on the sky to eat" was the typical income of rural residents. In this state, rural residents are more cautious in consumption. Compared with rural residents, various welfare measures and security measures of urban residents are more perfect, such as labor insurance, medical insurance, pension, etc., while rural residents basically do not enjoy or enjoy these welfare subsidies, and face the future.
With the uncertainty of income, preventive savings become its natural choice.
Li Xinyi (2009) believes that the relationship between consumption and savings of residents in Zhejiang Province is not as described in traditional economic theory, but is the same rise and fall: residents can not only ensure that part of their income is deposited in the bank, but also ensure that consumption is not reduced. In recent years, the income of residents in this province has increased rapidly, thus ensuring the real occurrence of the above situation. But the tradition of Zhejiang residents' consumption still exists. Although their income has increased rapidly, the part used for saving is still much higher than that used for consumption, which is in line with the tradition of China people who are used to saving first and then spending.
To sum up, consumers' attitude, perceived value and perceived risk are all related to their purchase intention, and these three factors are also related to brand image, so we can guess that brand image is also related to consumers' previous purchase intention. There should be a paragraph after this chapter to comment on the shortcomings of this chapter.
Third, the empirical analysis of social security expenditure and residents' consumption level.
(A) empirical analysis of foreign social security expenditure and residents' consumption level
Feldstein (1974) chose the time series of the United States1929-1year (excluding 194 1- 1946) to predict the total social security.
H.Yigit Aydede(2007) takes Turkey as an example to analyze the influence of social security on the total consumption of developing countries through time series. In order to quantify social security variables, he conducted an independent study using Turkey's social security wealth. The study points out that social security wealth is the largest part of Turkish families. Based on the sensitivity test of social security wealth to consumption, it is found that social security wealth has a significant impact on total consumption.
Cagan Phillip( 1965) analyzed the savings behavior of the members of Consumer Union 15000 during 1958- 1959. Contrary to the forecast, those who participated in the pension plan reduced their consumption expenditure. The study found that the main reason is that participating in this plan may make people expect to retire early, make residents more uncertain about the future, make them save more and reduce their current consumption.
(B) Empirical analysis of domestic social security expenditure and residents' consumption level
Some scholars directly draw a conclusion from empirical analysis that the impact of social security on residents' consumption is positive. Liu Hui (2009) used the relative income hypothesis model and the panel data of 1997-2007 to find that social security has a significant positive impact on Chinese residents' consumption. Liu Chang (2008) used 1989-
Based on the data of social security expenditure and residents' consumption in 2005, the conclusion is drawn by using the least square method: the increase of social security expenditure and residents' consumption are generally complementary, and this effect is significant at the significant level of 0.05, that is, the increase of social security expenditure can stimulate residents' consumption demand. Jin Shubin (2009) compares the data of1981-2006, and draws the conclusion that there is a mutual promotion relationship between social security and residents' consumption. When domestic consumption is insufficient, we should stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand and promote economic growth by developing social security. Yu Yong (2009) used the data of 1980-2005, calculated by the least square method and spss software, and concluded that the level of social security expenditure in China has a significant impact on the consumption level of residents, and there is a strong positive correlation between them. The data analysis during the period of 1980-2005 shows that every increase in China's social security expenditure level is 1%, per capita.
Duan Jinghui and Huang (20 1 1) used the provincial panel data of 1987 ~ 2009 to establish a fixed effect variable intercept model. The results show that the perfection of social security system in various provinces and cities in China indirectly leads to great differences in the consumption level of residents in various provinces and cities; The increase of social security expenditure has a significant crowding-in effect on residents' consumption demand, which is conducive to expanding residents' consumption demand.
Yang Zhiming (20 1 1) takes the national time series of 1986-2008 and 28 provincial panel data of 1995-2008 as the research object. The analysis shows that rural social security has crowding-out effect on residents' consumption in a short time, and there are differences in some areas. In the long run, rural social security consumes residents in general and in part.
Jia Xiaomei and Ran (2004) made use of the cross-sectional data of the national farmer survey in 2000 and 20001year, and adopted the least square method to draw the conclusion that there is a significant relationship between the rural social security system and the growth of consumer demand. However, some scholars believe that the impact of social security on residents' consumption is negative. Zhang Yajun (2008) used Eviews software to analyze the time series data from 199 1 to 200 1, and concluded that the total level of social security was negatively correlated with the consumption tendency of urban and rural residents at this stage, and the level of social security was low. Wang Xiaoxia and Sun Huachen (2008) selected the data from 1993 to 2005. Through Granger causality test and multiple regression analysis, they came to the conclusion that social security expenditure is the Granger cause of residents' consumption demand, and social security in China hinders consumption. Yang Tianyu and Wang Xiaoting (2007) used the extended life cycle model based on the data of 1980-2004, and finally came to the conclusion that the social security system in China failed to eliminate consumers' "worries" and played a role in stimulating consumption.
(20 10), Wu Qingtian, Chen (2009), Wu Qingtian (2009) and many other scholars have used cointegration analysis and error vector correction model to analyze the impact of rural social security on rural residents' consumption.
The ring. The results show that the social security expenditure in China has not promoted the consumption of rural residents.
(C) Empirical analysis of social security expenditure and residents' consumption level in Zhejiang Province
Yang, Mi Hong (2008) Based on the data of 1980-2005, the average level of social security in Zhejiang Province has been lower than the national average in the past 24 years, and has shown signs of retrogression since 2000. Among them, in 13, the level of social security in Zhejiang province was negatively correlated with GDP, and the growth of social security level was slower than economic growth.
To sum up, consumers' attitude, perceived value and perceived risk are all related to their purchase intention, and these three factors are also related to brand image, so we can guess that brand image is also related to consumers' previous purchase intention. There should be a paragraph after this chapter to comment on the shortcomings of this chapter.
Fourth, summary.
By reading the above literature, we can see that: in theoretical research, domestic and foreign scholars use different theories to analyze the impact of social security system on household consumption, and fully realize the impact of social security on household consumption. Social security plays a certain role in reducing the future uncertainty faced by consumers, and may also have a negative effect on increasing consumption, so that consumers can know how to guard against future risks and thus increase their savings. In the empirical study, domestic and foreign scholars use different models, different software and a large number of data to explain the impact of social security on household consumption.
Nevertheless, we can see that there are still some problems in the existing research, mainly in the following aspects:
First, in terms of analysis methods, most empirical analysis does not add control variables to its model, and the analysis methods still need to be improved. However, studying predecessors' achievements can help us better understand their relationship. The study of the relationship between the two is helpful to find out the places that need to be improved in the social security system, so as to improve the social security system, stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand.
Secondly, in the choice of analysis angle, domestic scholars' research on social security and residents' consumption is mostly from the national point of view, and there is little research on various regions. There are obvious regional differences in social security in China. The research on social security expenditure and residents' consumption level in Zhejiang Province is a detailed empirical analysis of individual regions, which has certain theoretical and practical significance.
On the basis of summarizing previous studies, this paper focuses on social security issues in view of the consumption trend of residents in Zhejiang Province.
In this paper, the consumption tendency of residents in Zhejiang Province is deeply studied by combining normative analysis with empirical analysis. In addition, this paper collected the relevant data of1985-201year to study the influence of social security expenditure on residents' consumption level. Finally, starting from the problems existing in the social security system in Zhejiang Province, this paper puts forward some countermeasures to enhance the consumption tendency of residents, expand domestic demand and promote the economic growth of Zhejiang Province.
References:
[1] Chen Fei, the impact of income gap on the consumption structure of urban residents in Henan Province [J]. Economic Jingwei, 2005 (6): 33-35
[2] Feng. On the income gap and consumption structure difference between urban and rural residents [J]. Investigation, 2012:158-160
[3] Gao Hongye: Western economics. Fourth Edition [M], Renmin University of China Press, 2008:56.
[4] Huang, a comparative analysis of the income and consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China at this stage [J] Science and technology economic market .2007, (06)
[5] Keynes: General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Beijing: Commercial Press, 1999 Edition: 57.
[6] Li Wei. An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urban Residents' Income Gap on Consumption Structure in Zhejiang Province [J]. Statistical Education, 2008(9)
[7] Luo Xiaohan. The restrictive effect of income distribution gap on consumer demand and economic growth [J] Modern Finance and Economics-Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
Newspaper, 2004 (1 1)
[8] Liu. An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urban-Rural Income Gap on Residents' Consumption in China [J]. Qiu, 2008( 1):55-58.
[9] Mother Danny. The Impact of Urban-Rural Income Gap on Consumption in Guizhou [J]. Knowledge Economy, 20 10-23
[10] Qin Chuanxi, Yan Wang, Rowling. A Comparative Study on the Consumption Relationship between Urban and Rural Residents in China Based on the Hypothesis of Sustained Income [J]. The British Times (1785)
Trade, 2008( 12):55-59
Ren Guoqiang, Xia Liming. Research on the Influence of Income Distribution on Consumer Demand [J]. Business Research, 2005(5) :l2- 14.
[12] Sun Wenhai, Ding Hongfu. Study on the Relationship between Consumption and Income of Urban Residents in Zhejiang Province [J]. Zhejiang Finance, 20 10(04):l2- 14
[13] william petty: On Taxation, For the Wise, On Money, The Commercial Press, 1963 Edition.
[14] Wang Shi, the restriction of urban-rural income gap on consumer demand [J]. Research on financial problems, 2002( 12):l2- 14
Yang Tianyu. Income gap between urban and rural areas and effective demand: a Marxist model [J]. Economics
Jia 200 1(03): 14
Yang Tianyu, Liu Xiaoxia. Research on the Optimal Income Gap for Maximizing Residents' Consumption [J]. Economist, 2008.
( 1):l2- 14
[17] Zou Hong, Yu Kaizhi. Labor Income Share, Urban-Rural Income Gap and China Residents' Consumption [J]. Economic Theory and Management
Li, 20 1 1(3):45-55
[18] Jason, Mengquan. Analysis of urban-rural income gap based on consumption [J]. Reform and Strategy, 2009(2):3 1-33
[19] Zhu, Comparative Analysis of Consumption between Rural Residents and Urban Residents in China [J]. Consumer Economy, 2007(8):46-49.
[20] Zhao Youbao, Zhang, income analysis of insufficient consumer demand [J]. Financial Science, 2000 (4): 22-24
Zhu Zheng, Wang Zhengbing. Study on the Relationship between Urban and Rural Income Gap and Urban and Rural Residents' Consumption [J]. Guangdong Agriculture
Industry, 2011(5): 201-204