From the beginning of 2023 to February 2, the share price of Zhonggong Education rose to a high point of 43 yuan/share, but then fell. As of February 12, the closing price of Zhonggong Education was only 7.86 yuan, a decrease of 8 1.72%, and its market value exceeded 2 10 billion US dollars.
While the stock market fluctuated, the performance of Chinese public education also suffered a large loss, which attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities. In 2023, it was paid attention to by Shenzhen Stock Exchange on June 5438+00 and June 5438+02 respectively.
Subsequently, due to the alleged disclosure of illegal activities and the failure to disclose related party transaction information as required, the CSRC filed an investigation, and the CSRC formally punished Zhonggong Education, and the injured investors had the opportunity to formally file a lawsuit for compensation.
As a former educational version of White Horse Stock, it is doubtful that China Public Education is so troublesome when the public official examination continues to be hot.
Is the stock price plummeting and ready to go? At least before the press release in 2023, there was no bad news in the stock market of Zhonggong Education, especially in the first quarter.
The financial report shows that the revenue of Zhonggong Education in the first quarter increased by 66.79% year-on-year to 2.052 billion yuan, and the net profit increased by 265,438+0% year-on-year to 65,438+0.465,438+0 billion yuan.
However, the rising performance did not stop the decline of Zhonggong Education's share price, but it intensified.
It is doubtful why China's public education, which once existed like a white horse stock, did not continue to win the trust of the capital market.
Judging from the delay, the biggest shock in the stock market of Zhonggong Education may be the shareholder's reduction.
Looking closely at the trend of Guanggong Education's share price, it actually began to fall after hitting a new high on February 2, 2023.
Three months ago, the share price of Chinese public education also reached a high point, which is also the highest point of Chinese public education.
It can be seen that the stock price trend of Zhonggong Education at that time formed a typical "M" double top, which usually means selling stocks.
According to the financial report, the cumulative number of shares held by the top ten shareholders of Zhonggong Education in the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 93,965,438+06,400 shares compared with the end of last year, by 87,327,654,380 shares in the second quarter and by 40,654,380 shares in the latest third quarter.
The shareholding ratio of Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited, the top ten tradable shareholder of Zhonggong Education, dropped to 3.90% in the second quarter. As of June 30, the share price of Zhonggong Education has fallen by more than half from its February high.
After the institutional reduction, Wang Zhendong, the third largest shareholder of Zhonggong Education, also reduced its holdings several times. From June 15 to the end of 2023, he reduced his holdings five times, and the accumulated cash income exceeded 1 1 100 million yuan.
In addition, the shareholders of Zhonggong Education also pledged many shares. According to the financial report, the top three shareholders and the seventh and eighth shareholders of Zhonggong Education all pledged their shares, and the pledge ratio was about 24.3%, 34.22%, 42.39%, 73.42% and 23.6 1% respectively.
However, to the surprise of retail investors, Zhonggong Education was investigated by the Securities and Futures Commission on February 5, 2008 for allegedly disclosing illegal activities and failing to disclose relevant transaction information as required, and was kicked out by Zhonggong Education for failing to complete the copying.
Shareholders and institutions have reduced their income. On the one hand, retail investors want to snap up, but they are caught in a situation of making up losses. What happened to public education in China? Why do shareholders reduce their holdings and pledge? We need to know whether by 2023, the performance of Chinese public education in the capital market is a suitable white horse stock, or whether it foresees a large loss in the third quarter.
The wallet and paper are thundering. Do you already have a plan? Sure enough, when the third quarterly report of Zhonggong Education came out, the market was in an uproar.
The financial report shows that in the first three quarters, the income of Chinese public education was 654.38+0.45 billion yuan, down 68.8% year-on-year. At the same time, it turned from profit to loss, and the loss amounted to 794 million yuan, with a cliff-like decline of 167.45%. In the first three quarters of 2023, the cumulative loss of public education in China reached 890 million yuan.
As the core income source of public education in China, the income of civil servants in the first three quarters decreased by 7.0 18% year-on-year to 827 million yuan.
We must know that in the same period of 2020, Zhonggong Education achieved a revenue increase of 83.65% and a net profit increase of 233.58%.
One year later, great changes have taken place in the performance of public education in China, which is really doubtful.
However, Zhonggong Education signed a gambling agreement on the backdoor listing of 20 18, promising to realize the goals of deducting non-net profit of 930 million yuan,1300 million yuan and1650 million yuan in 2020.
In fact, the proportion of public education in China is 122%, 13 1% and 132% respectively.
On the contrary, the moisture in the report of Zhonggong Education in the third quarter of 2023 can be said to be beyond words. No wonder Shenzhen Stock Exchange has two letters of concern.
However, after winning the bounce ticket twice in a row, Zhonggong Education sent a second reply to Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The time lag has deepened the market's doubts, and the new explanation is still worth pondering.
For example, the problem of high deposit and loan in public education in China requires a certain amount of funds to refund students' tuition fees under the mode of agreement classes. On the one hand, it ensures stable operation, on the other hand, exams and other exams have certain periodicity, and the lack of income in the third and fourth quarters will lead to cash flow problems in business activities.
According to the announcement, the fees refunded by Zhonggong Education in the first nine months of 20 19, 2020 and 2023 are 44. 14%, 46.54% and 65.8 1% respectively.
In other words, the decline in the performance of Chinese public education is indeed due to the high amount of refund, but why is the performance still rising in 20 19 and 2020? Because the refund rate during this period is not low.
In addition, the time for Chinese public education to refund some tuition fees to students is not short. Generally speaking, the time from payment to examination is more than 6 months, and the time for grading and refunding the examination may be as long as one year. These advances are also used for investment income.
The financial report shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, the cash used for investment payment reached 7.00/kloc-0.50 billion yuan, which was higher than the operating income, and reached 28.265 billion yuan in the same period of 2020.
This is also an important reason why it is difficult to refund public education in China. Even if the refund time stipulated in the contract is within 30-45 working days, due to various reasons, Chinese public education still lags behind.
Obviously, these explanations cannot fully explain the rationality of public education savings loans. Zhonggong Education announced the annual dividend plan in the annual report of 20 19, which shows that the cash dividend is14.8 billion yuan. In other words, public education in China is not short of money.
During the three-month period from the introduction of the library card to the dividend in 20 19, Chinese public education paid dividends twice, totaling about 2.9 billion yuan, and the short-term deposit in that year was 2.867 billion yuan. Is this an accident? In addition, in 20 19, the dividend amount of Chinese public education accounted for 82% of the net profit of that year, and in 20 18, the proportion was as high as 123%. According to the shareholding ratio of that year, the top three shareholders of Zhonggong Education received a total of 210.83 billion yuan.
No wonder such dividends are regarded as clearance dividends by the market.
In contrast, for the double decline of performance and stock market, as well as regulatory issues, the vice letter of Zhonggong Education is also of great significance in explaining these two high-tech deposits.
In short, the new reply of Chinese public education is an interpretation of specific issues such as performance, that is, the change of examination cycle leads to the decline of performance in the third quarter.
The dilemma of Chinese public education can also be understood as the double decline of performance and stock market due to the expansion of market scale and the influence of experimental cycle factors.
While the market is expanding, has the anti-risk ability of China Catholic Church weakened? Or is there something wrong with the business model of public education in China?
"Improper" Chinese public education has led to an increase in the refund rate of Chinese public education, and the important reason is that there are problems in the practice of agreement classes.
The agreed class leader mainly means that Chinese public education does not provide reservation service for students. In other words, if a student fails the exam after applying for the service of Chinese public education, a certain percentage of tuition fees will be refunded. This is obviously no loss for students, but after all, the exam is just a refund.
In this way, Chinese public education will surpass graffiti education on 20 15 and become a pilot public head college. In 20 19, the market share will reach 33%, and more than 80% of the income will come from the agreement class.
In order to attract more students, Chinese public education began to use loan products such as student loans to match its own students.
Taking Idealism as an example, students plan to enroll in 0 yuan after the quota is fixed, sign a loan agreement with the platform, and pay back the money themselves after passing the exam, but not after failing the exam.
However, the loan amount often starts at 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, and more people get higher loans. Many failed students found that the loan had not been repaid, and many newly graduated students took out loans before making money.
For public education in China, the amount of deposits under the loan model has increased substantially, reaching 5.975 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for 24.94% of the total. This means that one in five students will choose student loans.
As a vocational education and training institution, Chinese public education is closely related to loan platforms such as Idealism. What's more, Zhonggong Education disclosed violations of laws and regulations without disclosing related party transaction information as required, which was clearly investigated by the CSRC.
Some experts believe that the early follow-up behavior of obtaining student loans but not paying them back is likely to use the time difference to whitewash the statements.
However, with the stock market plummeting in 2023 and the financial performance plummeting in the first three quarters, the "but guaranteed return" public examination agreement class, which Chinese public education attaches great importance to, also announced the trade-in of the old and gradually reduced the proportion of student loan products.
The strategy of public education in China is not only due to performance and market pressure, but also mainly due to regulatory pressure.
On June 5438+00 and 13, 2023, the Ministry of Education and the General Administration of Market Supervision jointly issued the "Off-campus Training Service Contract for Primary and Secondary School Students (Model Text)" (revised in 2023), clearly prohibiting the charging method of "training loans".
It is obviously uncertain that the performance of Chinese public education will get better if the inherent negotiation class continues to play indefinitely.
In addition, according to statistics, in 2022, the number of applicants for the national civil service examination exceeded 18 1000, an increase of more than 3 1000, and the number of applicants for the national examination exceeded one million 13.
In such a hot situation, China Catholic Church suffered many setbacks in its share price and performance, and the market even asked a question mark about how China Catholic Church stumbled. Shouldn't the "indecent" China Catholic Church produce more reasonable evidence?
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