Keywords Shanghai; Urbanization; Regression analysis
First, the research theme
In the 1920s, the word "urbanization" first appeared in research works. Different disciplines have different understandings and definitions of urbanization. Economists pay attention to urbanization from the perspective of urban population concentration caused by industrial revolution. The degree of urbanization is an important symbol of a country's economic development, especially the development of industrial production. By the end of 2003, the urbanization rate of China was 10% lower than the world average and 30% lower than that of developed countries. China is the most populous developing country in the world. In order to make a smooth transition to a well-off society in an all-round way, we must speed up the pace of urbanization and give play to the central radiation role of the city. Urbanization will undoubtedly become an important driving force and growth point of China's economy. By establishing a regression model, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the urbanization rate and tries to find out the factors that have a greater impact on urbanization.
Second, literature review
Wang Changxiong (2004) pointed out that per capita GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry, real estate investment and foreign direct investment are highly correlated with the level of urbanization after analyzing the data of 22 cities in China in 200 1 year. The GDP growth rate, the proportion of the secondary industry, the investment in fixed assets and the rate of receiving higher education are all relatively low, so it is concluded that the effect of relying on the development of the secondary industry to promote urbanization is not obvious, and the level of urban education has nothing to do with the level of urbanization. It is also unreasonable to try to improve the level of urbanization by increasing the economic aggregate without changing the industrial structure and institutional innovation. Developing the tertiary industry and opening up the economy have played a positive role in the process of urbanization in China. Zou (2006) compared the urbanization development and industrial structure adjustment of Japan, the United States, Mexico, Hong Kong and Shanghai in "Analysis of the Interactive Relationship between Urbanization Development and Industrial Structure Adjustment in Shanghai", and pointed out that the government should support the development of the secondary industry in the accelerated stage of urbanization, and the government policy should be inclined to the tertiary industry after urbanization entered the later stage. It is suggested that Shanghai should focus on developing non-traditional industries in the tertiary industry. Jiang Wei and Cao (20 10) analyzed the correlation between foreign direct investment and urban development in Jiangsu province 13, and concluded that foreign direct investment has a strong role in promoting urbanization. From the above literature, it can be concluded that the contribution of economic development level, tertiary industry and investment to urbanization has been widely concerned by academic circles, but the role of these factors in urbanization development needs further study.
Thirdly, model setting and analysis.
Analysis method: Based on the data of Shanghai's FDI stock, FDI increment, fixed assets investment and per capita GDP from 1999 to 20 10, this paper assumes that other factors have little influence on urbanization rate, and then uses correlation analysis and linear regression analysis to explain the influence degree of these four factors on urbanization rate respectively. The specific indicators are set and explained as follows: (1) Urbanization rate (y, unit:%) is the proportion of urban population and is an explanatory variable. The data of urbanization rate is expressed by the proportion of non-agricultural population to the total population in Shanghai, ranging from 1999 to 20 10. The data comes from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 20 1 1. The higher the urbanization rate, the higher the degree of social progress. (2) Incremental FDI(X 1, unit: USD 100 million) is the actual amount of foreign capital utilized in Shanghai in each year. The inflow of foreign direct investment constitutes a part of the city's total investment, and the incremental foreign direct investment can reflect the short-term effect of foreign investment in Shanghai. Incremental data are taken from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 1999-20 10 Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Table. (3) The stock of foreign direct investment (X2, unit: billion US dollars) is the accumulated amount of foreign investment in Shanghai by the end of that year. Foreign direct investment is one of the important carriers of economic globalization. With the improvement of China's openness, the global economy will play a more and more important role in promoting China's development. The data of stock FDI is also taken from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 20 1 1. (4) Investment in fixed assets (X3, unit: 100 million yuan): Investment in fixed assets can reflect urban infrastructure construction and real estate development, and it is the embodiment of industrialization. Data of fixed assets investment are also taken from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 20 1 1. (5) Per capita GDP(X4, unit: yuan/person): It is generally believed that in the process of urbanization, economic growth has a greater impact on urbanization, and the higher the degree of economic development, the higher the level of urbanization. Therefore, with the increase of income level, the urbanization rate will gradually increase. Therefore, we can improve the level of urbanization by promoting economic development. Per capita GDP data can also be obtained from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook.
EVIEWS linear regression analysis;
From the results of linear regression model, we can see that the goodness of fit between incremental FDI and urbanization rate is 0.89. It can be explained that there is a certain linear relationship. But the linear relationship is not very strong. The goodness of fit between stock FDI and urbanization rate is close to 0.9 1. There is a certain linear relationship. Compared with incremental FDI, stock FDI has a stronger correlation with urbanization rate. This also shows that the contribution of stock FDI to urbanization development is greater than incremental FDI.
The goodness of fit between fixed assets investment and urbanization rate is close to 0.96. This shows a strong linear correlation. Urban construction relies heavily on investment in fixed assets. The goodness of fit between per capita GDP and urbanization rate is 0.95, which has a strong linear correlation. It can be said that the improvement of urbanization level is closely related to the growth of per capita GDP.
Four. conclusion and suggestion
From the above analysis, it can be seen that foreign direct investment, investment in fixed assets and per capita GDP have a strong correlation with urbanization rate. Based on the above analysis, the specific suggestions are as follows: (1) Increase economic openness. The urbanization process needs a lot of funds, and foreign direct investment can bring the needed funds, which is an important force to promote the urbanization process. In addition, industrial selection and development based on international and regional division of labor will greatly promote urbanization. Opening to the outside world has promoted the marketization of cities and reduced the degree of market distortion. With the deepening of economic globalization, the role of foreign capital in promoting urbanization will continue to increase. Therefore, every city should take the opportunity of opening to the outside world to promote the development of the city and improve the level of urbanization. (2) Increase investment in urban infrastructure construction. Infrastructure includes public utilities and public works, covering transportation, electricity, telecommunications, water supply, culture, education, medical care and other aspects, and it is often the areas with higher urbanization that do better in these aspects. To develop a city, it is necessary to do a better job in the supporting facilities of the city, so that more residents can enjoy the convenience and efficiency brought by urbanization. However, special attention should be paid to expanding investment in fixed assets without causing environmental pollution and maintaining sustainable development. (3) Actively develop the tertiary industry and promote urbanization. Compared with the secondary industry, the development of the tertiary industry can promote the development of urbanization. Compared with the urbanization in developed countries, the structure of the tertiary industry in China is still unbalanced, which is highlighted by the fact that the proportion of the secondary industry is too large and the proportion of the tertiary industry is still too small. The tertiary industry has a large employment space, which is also very helpful to improve the overall employment rate in China. Vigorously developing the tertiary industry is enough to enhance the industrial layout and structure of China. Therefore, we should actively develop the tertiary industry and promote the sustainable development of our country.
Take the exam and contribute.
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