Some people summarize the performance of "involution" as the following seven points:
202 1, "involution" has brought endless overlapping burdens, but it has not brought corresponding returns and gains, which not only makes people think deeply: why are we involved?
Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, once said: Never try to use tactical diligence to cover up strategic laziness.
In this world, the people who can really achieve great things are not those who spend the most time "participating", but those who can find the best way to solve problems.
If you are interested in game theory, you will find that all related problems actually have a mysterious commonality, which is not only the underlying logic for us to solve problems, but also the hidden obstacle for cooperation.
1. What is game theory?
Game theory refers to the theoretical basis for two or more individuals (groups) to make decisions and actions in an equal game to achieve a win-win situation.
The origin of game theory can be traced back to ancient times, but the real principle was born in 1928. This year, von Neumann proved the basic principles of game theory.
Since the 20th century, game theory has been widely used in western countries. Business, economic, military and social studies? General response? . It can help decision makers with different interests to establish. Can you afford it? I am standardized. A dynamic cooperative relationship.
From family discord and neighborhood conflicts to company cooperation and national diplomacy, most of these problems can be solved by game theory.
God may not reward those who work hard, but he will take care of the smart people who can find the optimal solution.
Therefore, in order to get rid of involution, we must first understand the underlying logic and optimal solution behind the problem. Finish this, and the next person to have a life may be you!
Second, 80% of the questions can be answered.
Searching for the optimal solution in game theory
I believe many people have had this experience:
When there is a traffic jam in the morning rush hour, every car will line up according to the rules, which will soon alleviate the traffic jam. However, if a car can't wait to illegally squeeze through the bus lane, then all the cars in this street will start fighting with each other. The final result is that the whole street will become more and more blocked, more disciplined and unruly, and everyone will be late.
This phenomenon is called "prisoner's dilemma" model in game theory.
In the early 1950s, Albert Tucker, a professor of mathematics at Princeton University, explained this model with the story of two thieves.
The police caught two thieves suspected of robbery, but only the evidence proved that they had illegal guns, which can only be sentenced to two years. So a policeman came up with a clever way to break up the thief group.
He first went to the detention room of thief A and told him that if B confessed, B would only be sentenced to 4 years, and A would be sentenced to 20 years. He added: If you plead guilty first, you can fight for acquittal because of your testimony.
After coming out of A's detention room, the police used the same words to find B. In the end, both of them pleaded guilty and got four years' imprisonment.
This story is the most classic case of "prisoner's dilemma", which has been adopted by countless police films in later generations and is almost a household name.
In fact, besides the prisoner's dilemma model, in Game Theory and Life, the author also puts forward six other dilemmas that plague our lives-tragedy of the commons, hitchhiking, coward game, volunteer dilemma, gender war and deer hunting.
Therefore, nearly 80% of the problems we encounter in our life can be analyzed and solved by game theory model.
Third, involution,
It is a typical "prisoner's dilemma"
First of all, let's take a look at this year's hot topic "involution", or should we call it the hot phenomenon of the year.
The concept of "involution" originated from the conclusive concept of rice agriculture in Germany. What we call social involution is different from Geerds' economic concept.
Regarding the hot word "involution", Oxford University professors gave a very comprehensive interpretation to the standard: the deterioration of the overall environment is accelerating and irreversible; However, individuals have no ability to compete with the environment, and finally have to adapt to environmental changes and join the ranks of involution.
Suppose that the goal of everyone in a department is to complete the work at hand and KPI, and wait for salary. One day, the department leader had a brainwave and began to formulate a system to encourage employees to work overtime for half an hour every day. New employee A is eager to prove that he can work overtime for 65,438+0 hours, so employee BCD ... is forced to start the "fishing" one-hour mode after work.
So? "involution" is actually the practice of "prisoner's dilemma"
Under the "prisoner's dilemma" model, when a system is established, most people under the system will be forced to choose the catering system, and when this system is not the optimal solution, then everyone's catering will become invalid.
So the final result is that everyone is working hard, getting up early and getting greedy, and the overall benefit will not increase significantly.
After falling into the "prisoner's dilemma", whether it is an individual or a group, the workplace or life, it is a silent waste and waste.
Professor Lan Fisher explained the "prisoner's dilemma" through a whole chapter of Game Theory and Life, namely:? Children often start from their interests. Choose to give up the best cooperation strategy from? Enter a game where interests are damaged? .
So how to solve the "prisoner's dilemma"?
The author provides three ways to solve this dilemma in the book:? Change your attitude and turn to well-meaning authority and strategies that can operate on your own.
Change attitude: If we all think that cheating in cooperation is immoral, we can avoid many social difficulties.
Appeal to well-meaning authorities: The so-called "well-meaning authorities" are mostly just a myth.
Once you have power, you will almost certainly seek personal gain. Therefore, we need external authority to promote cooperation and maintain fairness.
Self-operated strategy: Develop self-operated strategy, so as long as the cooperation starts, there is no chance of cheating.
Fourthly, the optimal solution of the problem is based on cooperation.
Professor Lan Fisher believes that people often choose to give up the best cooperation strategy from their own interests, thus falling into a situation where their long-term interests are damaged.
In the book Game Theory and Life, five methods of establishing "cooperative relationship" supported by game theory are put forward.
Communication-negotiation-alliance-commitment-reason and emotion.
1
Carnegie said that a person's success, 15% depends on knowledge and skills, and 85% depends on communication. Game theory researchers believe that. As long as both parties are willing and able to communicate, reason can usually make them reach an agreement.
Smooth communication will reduce the time cost by at least half.
I often see some gossip news: couples who have no feelings for a long time are unwilling to compromise because of some small interests. Year after year, divorce lawsuits have been searched repeatedly, but they have not been properly resolved for a long time.
What hinders their divorce speed is not the cooling-off period of divorce, but the avoidance of communication between the two sides. This kind of evasion leads to both sides not only paying a large sum of money to lawyers, but also suffering from emotional pressure for many years.
Consultation
The two sharp weapons of negotiation are threat and commitment. The choice between the two depends on the situation at that time, and the other party must believe it to be effective.
Professor Lan Fisher gives such a small example in his book. When children start to be naughty, if parents just shout "If you don't stop, I will kill you!" " "
The child may not be threatened because he knows that his parents will spank him, but they will not really kill him. This is a threat that won't come true, so most children ignore it.
If parents change their words to "no more ice cream" or "listen, I'll buy you ice cream", it may have a very obvious effect.
3. Alliance
From the perspective of game theory, couples, colleagues, or merchants and consumers are all alliances as long as it is convenient to coordinate strategies.
Professor Lan Fisher believes that people often choose to give up the best cooperation strategy from their own interests, thus falling into a situation where their long-term interests are damaged.
Therefore, in order to win-win, we must regard both sides as an alliance that must be trusted.
On this basis, all parties can negotiate strategies, trust each other and keep their promises. These actions can make everyone jump out of the social dilemma and finally achieve a win-win situation.
promise
Is there any way to keep people loyal to the organization without trust? There is only one answer-commitment.
Professor Lan Fisher put forward the view that the most reliable way is to establish a self-operating agreement when all parties are unable or unwilling to communicate.
This agreement must be a Nash equilibrium, and all parties will lose as long as they escape alone, so they have to cooperate.
In 2003, Huawei faced an unprecedented downturn. Ren Zheng Fei even planned to sell Huawei to Motorola for $7.5 billion, but due to various difficulties, it didn't come true.
However, it was in this worst downturn that Ren explored a set of "ways to get financing without listing" and began to take Huawei's own "wild way".
Among them, the most important way is to stimulate the creative vitality of the team through commitment. Ren changed the management mode from "command-obedience" to "full participation". The adjustment of this policy has brought great collective energy to Huawei.
5. Reason and emotion
In an ideal state, as long as all parties can pursue their own interests through consultation with a truly rational attitude, they can find a unique plan that is best for all.
But people are independent and complex individuals, and no one can be completely rational. Therefore, in cooperation, emotions must be included in our daily plans and actions.
Considering happiness and other emotional rewards or punishments, it seems that in some cases, Nash equilibrium can really lock us in some solutions and reach cooperation.
Five, ten key points to maximize the efficiency of game theory
Professor Lan Fisher summed up the strategy of 10 to solve the problem in years of game theory research.
These strategies are designed to adjust the delicate balance between cooperation and conflict, and it is worth everyone's efforts to understand their principles and how to apply them.
1. Hold on if you win, and change if you lose.
Whether you choose cooperative strategy or selfish uncooperative strategy, as long as you are the winner when the result comes out, don't change your strategy.
But if you lose (often because others choose not to cooperate with you at the same time), take another strategy immediately.
2. Introduce new participants
If it is a confrontation between the two sides, let it become a situation of checks and balances among the three parties. This is very effective in promoting the balance effect in the process of cooperation.
Even if you know that the newcomer will be a loner, it is still possible to improve the overall situation.
In addition, new participants can also refer to "trusted third parties", which are responsible for managing collateral or enforcing default clauses.
3. Establish a form of reciprocity
A very important motivation for cooperation is to know that we may meet again in the future, so try to establish such a situation through direct, indirect or social networks.
Limit your future choices, so that once you betray cooperation, you will suffer.
This is one of the most effective ways to let others know that they are willing to cooperate.
For example, if you set special conditions, as long as you (or others) violate the cooperation promise, your reputation will be greatly damaged; Or burn one's bridges and stipulate that there is no turning back after cooperation.
5. Trust given to you
This is another way to make others feel that your promise is credible.
As long as you truly trust, you will get a reward, and cooperation will be much easier.
6. Set special conditions. If both sides want to betray unilaterally, they will suffer.
Of course, this is a Nash equilibrium. If the cooperative solution of the problem happens to be Nash equilibrium, then the problem is solved.
7. Use compensation to establish and maintain cooperative alliances.
Compensation can be money, social or emotional rewards, or just bribes. No matter what kind of compensation, the key point is that if the members of the alliance defect or join other alliances, they will suffer losses.
8. Pay attention to the seven dilemmas, consider the interests and costs of all participants, and let the dilemmas cease to exist.
Of course, this is easier said than done, otherwise the world would have been one. But in any case, this is the right direction and worth a try.
9. Share all kinds of goods, responsibilities, work, punishment, etc. Let everyone feel that the result is fair.
"Feeling fair" is a powerful motivation, so we must ensure that the process is transparent, the result looks fair and everyone is satisfied.
10. Divide the group into several parts
All the evidence shows that members of small groups are more likely to cooperate, but this is not the case among small groups. If the leaders of small groups can make good use of the above nine tips, it will help the cooperation between groups.
All human efforts on labor and relations are for happiness. And happiness comes from the real solution of the problem.
Therefore, whether you are a decision-maker or an executor, you can really have a better future if you get out of involution.
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