The first big move of moderately loose monetary policy is to cut interest rates.
At the end of 2008 10, the deposit and loan interest rate of RMB dropped by 65,438 0.08%, which was a rare and violent monetary policy action in recent ten years. The policy authorities' concerns about the future macroeconomic downturn are fully reflected, but the effect of interest rate cuts has not yet been immediate. Just as the policy of cooling needs to be accumulated, the policy of anti-cooling and anti-heating needs to ignite the emotions of enterprises and residents, and it also needs the accumulation of time and the continuous warming of policy energy. Therefore, in the process of market and policy game, interest rate cuts are expected to continue until the economic operation no longer leads to monetary credit losses caused by credit shortage. When residents and enterprises are still uncertain about their future expectations, and when everyone's demand for money stays at ensuring sufficient cash flow, the disappearance of mutual credit will be manifested as the dual function of reducing liquidity and money multiplier, and the effect of interest rate cuts will be discounted relative to the normal operation of the economy.
The first big move of the "moderately loose" monetary policy implemented in the winter of 2008 was to cut interest rates, not only to make up for the crisis of the disappearance of the role of domestic enterprises and residents, but also to make up for the reaction of the withdrawal or expected withdrawal of international capital to the shrinking market liquidity. Under the existing foreign exchange management system, if the monetary policy in the first half of 2008 is a tightening measure to deal with the inflation threat caused by the flood of dollars, then the monetary policy that started in the winter of 2008 should have the deflation threat of 6.5: 1 brought by the return of dollars, and the central bank should actively "inject" the amount of foreign capital denominated in dollars into the market. Therefore, while cutting interest rates, it is natural to loosen credit restrictions.
The second major action of "moderately loose" monetary policy is to liberalize the credit line.
The credit limit control and window guidance under the background of austerity policy led to the tight liquidity of Chinese enterprises before the fall of 2007. The liberalization of credit line under active fiscal policy is not only the need of matching funds for fixed assets investment, but also the need of injecting liquidity into enterprises, so as to prevent enterprises from "withering" due to insufficient liquidity. The sharp disappearance of export demand and household consumption cannot make up for the gap left by insufficient export demand in a short time, which will inevitably form a shrinking chain of upstream demand, leading to a sharp decline in PPI and PMI. The official PMI fell sharply at 1 1, which is the pessimistic performance of managers on future expectations after the credit of the real economy shrank. Therefore, in order to cope with the threat from the international financial crisis and offset the shrinking external demand with active fiscal policy, starting from the first type of production for production, 4 trillion fixed assets investment will form production demand in infrastructure, nonferrous metals, steel, cement, energy, transportation and other industries, and this demand must be supported by matching funds. We predict that the investment in fixed assets centered on high-speed rail since the winter of 2008 needs not only the support of financial funds, but also the support of continuous liquidity. This sustained demand for funds will inevitably expand with the positive response of local governments, thus forming an impulsive demand for monetary credit lines.
Impulsive demand is driven by the state, local governments and enterprises. In view of the threat that the economic crisis may pose to the economic downturn, the economic downturn will lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. The large-scale decline of export-oriented economy in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions forced large-scale investment in fixed assets under the condition of incomplete structural adjustment. When there is government credit as a guarantee, commercial banks will be willing to actively cooperate in lending for policy projects. The expanding credit scale will directly and continuously provide sufficient capital guarantee for upstream investment. China's economy may quickly get rid of the pressure of "crisis" under the strong impetus of fiscal and monetary policies and policy forces, but the final demand will force the economy to fall again because of the shortage of foreign trade and domestic demand, thus forming a relative surplus of production capacity and means of production. If this excess capacity is not guaranteed by benefits, it will eventually force banks to shrink credit for commercial interests. The potential pronoun of this expectation is that China's economy may come out of a W bottom in the next three years, that is, under the joint action of loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy, China's economy will come out of the crisis very quickly, but it may return to the fundamentals of economic law again under the drag of the reverse forces of shrinking domestic and foreign demand. In other words, when China's economy has entered the global economic cycle, our positive policy role will be negatively affected by international forces. Therefore, in order to offset this negative effect,
The third big move of "moderately loose" monetary policy should be the active or disguised depreciation of RMB.
If 1998 China did not hesitate to sacrifice its own interests to prevent the RMB from depreciating for the sake of Asian economic stability, then now, when China's foreign exchange reserves have bought a large number of US Treasury bonds and become the first creditor of the United States, the most direct and effective way to prevent the depreciation of the US dollar and defend the national interests is to let the people depreciate against the US dollar. At present, the main measure of national policy to devalue RMB is to increase the export tax rebate rate, thus providing policy protection for related enterprises' exports. This kind of policy protection measures realized the devaluation of fiscal currency to a certain extent, but the more export subsidies, the more subsidies the China government actually gave to the residents of other countries in the world. This subsidy policy does not encourage enterprises to use technology to improve the competitiveness of products. If depreciation measures are taken directly, that is, injecting a large amount of money into the market, expanding the settlement scope of RMB in international trade, and actively depreciating, China can not only offset the corrosive effect of the strategic depreciation of the US dollar on foreign exchange, but also transfer the domestic inflationary pressure outward. In view of the enormous pressure of social security and medical security in China, as well as the huge capital investment needed by agriculture, rural areas and farmers, the pressure of depreciation abroad is realistic. Once this pressure is combined with the large-scale infrastructure construction of the country, the active depreciation of the inflation surplus will be beneficial to the reform of the national monetary policy: that is, the RMB will gradually become fully convertible. At the same time, it is the upgrading stage of financial innovation in China real estate industry. Therefore, moderately loose monetary policy is naturally linked to real estate.
The fourth big move of "moderately loose" monetary policy is industrial monetary policy.
This is because the rise and fall of the upstream series of real estate intermodal transport, on the one hand, is related to residents' consumption demand and wealth effect, and China is involved in the financial industry. The real estate revolution in China, which started from 1998, was realized under the dual forces of financial innovation represented by mortgage and housing commercialization promoted by group consumption. After 2002, with the dumping of US dollars and China's entry into WTO, the real estate price has been prosperous for five years, which is dominated by the market. Under the joint action of tight monetary policy, economic recession, declining income expectation and falling prices, the real estate industry in China has entered a new round of adjustment cycle. At present, the market is wary, fearing that if "affordable housing" which enjoys both "socialist" preferential policies and convenient market transactions flood into the market, it will form the "scale" of the real estate industry, that is, the market mechanism of price formation will be completely broken, thus forming a huge blow to the existing homeowners. If the wealth of the middle class is impacted by the "economic applicability" of the real estate industry, it may directly lead to the crisis of the banking industry. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is an excessive financial innovation in the real estate industry, and the real estate crisis in China may have a negative effect on the growth of domestic consumer demand because of excessive policy innovation.
On the contrary, if we combine the "socialist" welfare housing distribution plan with the "market economy" commodity housing supply and demand through policy guidance. The "socialist" welfare low-rent housing plan with per capita 15 square meters is aimed at urban low-income people, diverting demand and gradually cooling down the fiery demand. For the commodity housing supply under the "market economy", the city should have a land supply plan to let the people have a basic understanding of the future supply and demand, and prevent the irrational rise and fall of housing prices caused by blind pursuit of prices. Therefore, the credit support of monetary policy for low-rent housing should be positive.
If China wants to improve its international status in the international financial crisis and gain more voice in the international financial system, it must first stabilize itself in the production field, and then stabilize residents' confidence in wealth in the consumption field. At the same time, we must unite with other international currency areas such as the euro to limit the hegemony of the dollar. Therefore, to establish a new international financial order, the first step is to form an Asian currency settlement unit together with Japan, South Korea and other major Asian countries, the second step is to form an Asian dollar zone on the basis of the Asian currency settlement unit, and the third step is to form a new special drawing right with the euro and the US dollar. Through the above process, the RMB will gradually become convertible under the capital account, but it will form an alliance with other currencies and will not directly conflict with the US dollar.