■ The world economy has further deepened its adjustment, and the macro policies of major economies have clearly differentiated.
(1) The pace of recovery in developed economies is different, and macroeconomic policies are divided. The economic recovery in the United States is better than expected, but industrial production has not recovered to the pre-crisis level, capacity utilization rate is still at a low level, private consumption has limited support for the economy, and the unemployment rate remains high. On 20 10 1 1 year, the Federal Reserve launched a new round of quantitative easing policy. Considering the three policy objectives of employment, inflation and economic growth, it is unlikely that the Fed will turn to monetary policy in the short term after the new round of quantitative easing of 20 1 1.
The eurozone economy was dragged down by the sovereign debt crisis, and its recovery was weaker than that of the United States and Japan. In response to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and other countries, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have successively issued conditional financial rescue plans. Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Britain and France, which have high sovereign debt risks, are forced to tighten their fiscal deficits when it is difficult for the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy.
Japan's economy has rebounded rapidly, but it continues to face deflationary pressure. Japan has been plagued by deflation for a long time, and its public debt level is very high. Domestic demand has limited support for the economy and is greatly influenced by the external market. Japan's macroeconomic policy adjustment is unlikely to be earlier than that of the United States and the euro zone.
(2) The economies of emerging market countries are slowing down, and inflationary pressures are generally high. In the first half of 20 10, emerging market countries India and Brazil maintained strong growth and increased inflationary pressure; In the second half of the year, industrial production slowed down obviously and the growth rate slowed down. India raised interest rates six times in a row at 20 10, and raised interest rates again at 1 this year. Brazil has raised interest rates three times since April 20 10, raising the policy interest rate from 8.75% to10.75%; However, inflation in Brazil hit a new high in June+February, 5438, and raised interest rates again in June, 5438+ 10 this year.
■ The flood of global liquidity has increased the uncertainty of the world economy.
The central banks of the United States and Japan continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, while the euro zone maintains a low interest rate policy, and the global money supply continues to exceed the demand of the real economy, leading to flooding of liquidity. The US dollar index hit a record low, pushing up the international commodity and asset prices, making the stock market falsely recover and fluctuate, and the risks are more transferred to emerging market countries.
The risk of market uncertainty has increased, and the global stock market has become divided. Affected by the depreciation of the US dollar, the improvement of market confidence and the introduction of a new round of economic stimulus policies, the US stock market fluctuated and rose in 20 10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq all rose more than 10%, and the European, German and British stock indexes were similar to those of the United States. However, due to the sovereign debt risk, the stock indexes of Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and other countries showed a downward trend. In the same period, the stock market indexes of Peru, Argentina, Thailand and Indonesia rose by over 40%, Russia and South Korea by over 20%, and India by over 15%. Stock indexes of other major economies, such as Japan and France, contracted slightly, while Brazil expanded slightly.
The recovery of the world economy is uneven, and the macroeconomic policy orientation of major economies is obviously divided. Major developed economies have slow growth, high unemployment rate and insufficient market confidence. In the short term, they still need the support of loose fiscal and monetary policies, while the quantitative easing monetary policy in developed economies such as the United States has limited stimulus to the domestic economy, and the new money supply mainly flows to emerging market countries. Although the growth rate of major developing economies has slowed down, due to the increasing inflationary pressure, many countries need to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, the concentration of global liquidity in fast-growing developing countries makes it more difficult for these countries to manage inflation, which not only increases the pressure of local currency appreciation, but also increases asset bubbles.
■ It is more difficult to rebalance the world economy, and the change of global governance model is a long-term process.
To alleviate the imbalance of the world economy, it is necessary to substantially adjust the consumption, savings and investment structures of major economies, the core of which is to adjust the behavior of leading consumption and overdraft consumption in developed countries such as the United States and Europe. The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 can be regarded as a compulsory adjustment to the imbalance of the world economy. However, with the economic recovery, it is more difficult to rebalance the world economy.
(1) The economic structure of the United States has not been effectively adjusted, and there is little room for further increase in the private savings rate. As the core of the world economic imbalance, American economy, on the one hand, from the perspective of the proportion of consumption expenditure in the economy, the implementation of economic stimulus plan and tax reduction policy has made the private consumption in the United States shrink less than GDP, while the policy to deal with the crisis has further increased the proportion of private consumption expenditure in GDP in a short period of time, rising to 70.8% in 2009, and this proportion is still as high as 70.6% in the first three quarters of 20 10. On the other hand, from the perspective of the personal savings rate in the United States, since the late 1990s, due to excessive consumption, the personal savings rate under the capital account (the ratio of savings to disposable income) is close to zero, and personal consumption under the national account is at a historical low. Since 2007, with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, family wealth has shrunk dramatically and personal savings rate has rebounded significantly. However, with the economic recovery in the second half of 2009, the personal savings rate under the national economic accounting account has been maintained at around 6%, and there is little room for further increase.
(b) The adjustment of world economic imbalance is greatly influenced by the globalization strategy of multinational corporations. In the past, the world economy was unbalanced, mainly among developed countries. Before the financial crisis broke out, there were world economic imbalances among developed countries and between developing countries and developed countries. In the final analysis, this new phenomenon is the result of multinational companies' continuous expansion and profit-seeking in the world under the background of economic globalization, and it is the combination of international capital and cheap factors in developing countries in global industrial transfer and redistribution. Under the condition that the trend of globalization will not be reversed, it is difficult to change the investment behavior of multinational companies because of the asymmetric distribution of capital, factors and markets. At the same time, developed countries require developing countries to further open their markets, and the rapid economic growth and obvious cost advantages of major developing countries further strengthen the investment behavior of multinational companies. UNCTAD's Global Investment Trend Monitoring Report of 20 11June estimated that after the financial crisis, 50% of global transnational direct investment went to developing economies and transition economies, and the proportion rose to 53% in 201year.
(3) The rebalancing of the world economy requires countries to effectively adjust their development modes and governance structures. Consumption-driven is the basic mode of economic development in developed countries such as the United States, and generally speaking, it is also the most efficient under the conditions of market economy. The economic and financial crisis triggered by subprime mortgage is essentially a credit and debt crisis. Excessive consumption in the United States is largely due to the excessive expansion of credit, which will inevitably lead to consumption overdraft and credit crisis. Therefore, as far as developed countries are concerned, the consumption-driven development model is unlikely to be fundamentally adjusted, but the governance and supervision of credit consumption need to be strengthened, and the expansion of credit must be based on disposable income. For some developing countries, it is a long-term process to start consumption and gradually get rid of the mode of relying too much on investment and export through the reform of income distribution system and the construction of social security system, which involves major adjustment of economic interests and requires a lot of investment.
(d) The adjustment of exchange rate policy is not the core of world economic rebalancing. The imbalance of the world economy is manifested in the imbalance of trade and investment between developed countries and between developing countries and developed countries. As far as the development and evolution of imbalances among developed countries are concerned, Japan and Germany are both surplus parties in previous imbalances. The appreciation of the yen and the euro has not fundamentally improved the balance of payments between the United States and Japan and Germany, but may bring long-term risks of economic stagnation. As far as the imbalance between China and the United States is concerned, foreign capital and foreign-funded enterprises, mainly multinational companies, are the main reasons for the large surplus and rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves. Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the RMB has continuously appreciated against the US dollar, but it has not significantly improved the balance of payments of various countries. However, the sharp adjustment of exchange rate may affect the adjustment of other domestic policies and increase the long-term uncertain risk of the economy.
(5) It is a long process to change the international monetary system with the US dollar as the main body. The dollar-based international monetary system determines that the United States will always be the deficit side of the international current account balance, and it is the dominant deficit side, and its competitive advantage makes the deficit mainly come from the trade deficit of goods. The rapid growth of international trade and transnational investment brought by economic globalization, as well as the internationalization of financial markets, need to continuously increase a large number of international monetary support. As the core reserve and settlement currency in the international monetary system, the US dollar objectively needs to maintain the corresponding balance of payments deficit while financing globalization, which also makes the United States a net importer of global real wealth. In the past decade, with the overall rise of developing countries and emerging market countries, the proportion of the United States in the world economy has declined. In this way, while the United States is financing the expanding globalization, its balance of payments will inevitably deteriorate. Therefore, it is difficult to fundamentally change the imbalance of the world economy without changing the existing national monetary system with the US dollar as the main body. However, the existence of the international monetary system with the US dollar as the main body is reasonable, and it is difficult to make a big breakthrough in the reform of global governance mode in the short term.
■ The external environment of China's economic development is more severe, and macro-policy adjustment faces a dilemma.
20 1 1 The endogenous driving force of world economic growth is still insufficient, private demand in developed economies is weak, the United States continues to be unemployed, the euro zone continues to face the pressure of fiscal austerity, and Japan continues to face the pressure of deflation. The inflationary pressure in developing economies may further increase, and the external environment facing China's economic development will be even more severe.
The adjustment of the world economy is slow and tortuous, and the contribution of net foreign trade exports to economic growth is difficult to make a big difference. In 2009, the trade surplus of goods in China contracted by 34.2%, and the contribution of net foreign trade exports to economic growth was negative by 3.9 percentage points. 20 10 China's trade surplus of goods further declined, the contribution of net foreign trade exports to economic growth was limited, and the price terms of trade index further deteriorated. In recent years, China has become the main target of WTO member countries' trade remedy measures, and the United States, the European Union and other economies frequently use trade issues to interfere with China's exchange rate policy. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China's foreign trade environment will continue to face challenges.
China continues to face the impact and interference of international short-term capital. Under normal circumstances, the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves mainly comes from three aspects: trade surplus, net inflow of foreign direct investment and appreciation of foreign exchange reserve assets. In the third quarter of 20 10, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by19.4 billion US dollars, the highest since 1997. Among them, the trade surplus was $65.3 billion, the actually utilized foreign capital was $22.9 billion, and the foreign investment of non-financial enterprises was $654.38+08.5 billion. Changes in exchange rates and asset prices have led to an increase of about $86.7 billion in foreign exchange reserve assets. Based on the above aspects, there is still an unexplained inflow of $37.6 billion in China's new foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter, which may be mainly hot money inflows. In the fourth quarter, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 654.38+099 billion, hitting a new quarterly high.
The rise of international commodity prices, especially food prices, has made it more difficult to control inflation. The continued depreciation of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy will continue to push up international commodity prices, push up domestic prices of related resources and raw materials, and make it more difficult for China to manage inflation. From the perspective of price transmission mechanism, energy and resource products, as intermediate inputs, are consumed in other industries, which has a limited role in promoting inflation; Agricultural products are not only the intermediate inputs of other industries, but also the main direct consumer goods, so the price of agricultural products is more closely related to the overall price level. The sharp rise in the prices of international agricultural products will drive up the prices of domestic related products, and the inflationary pressure will increase significantly. In fact, most of the previous inflation in China came from rising food prices directly related to agricultural products.
Macroeconomic policy, especially the adjustment of monetary policy, is facing a dilemma. The depreciation of the US dollar has led to the devaluation of many countries' currencies, and major economies have issued more currencies. It is difficult for global liquidity to effectively enter the real economy, which has increased the uncertainty of the external environment. While China's economic growth slows down, the economic stimulus plan basically ends, and inflationary pressure continues to increase, macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policies, are facing a dilemma. On the one hand, policymakers are worried that the continuous interest rate hike may further aggravate the inflow of hot money, increase domestic inflationary pressure, and have an impact on the domestic economy, making it difficult to achieve the expected results. On the other hand, the current bank deposit reserve ratio is constantly setting a new record. Although there is still room for the central bank to further raise the reserve ratio, the effect of relying too much on the policy of raising the deposit reserve ratio is not only limited, but also the negative impact is increasing.
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