In the past year, RMB appreciation has become the focus of international economic and social public opinion. China began to implement a floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and regulated and managed with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to the US dollar, forming a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism. The appreciation of RMB will bring challenges and a sense of crisis to China's export enterprises. China's export enterprises should take active measures to deal with the impact of RMB appreciation, so that China's export enterprises can better adapt to the changes in the global economy and develop steadily.
At the beginning of the second half of this year, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.6 yuan mark of RMB 1 US dollar. According to the calculation of RMB 8. 1 1 yuan against USD 1 on July 2, 2005 when the RMB exchange rate mechanism was reformed, the cumulative appreciation of RMB since the exchange rate reform has been close to 6.35%. The trend of RMB appreciation is predictable. In this irreversible environment, we should take appropriate measures to prevent RMB from fluctuating greatly, so as to reduce its adverse impact on China's import and export trade, and make full use of the small appreciation of RMB to promote the development of China's foreign trade. The appreciation of RMB is conducive to reducing import costs, curbing domestic price increases, stimulating consumption, accelerating structural adjustment, promoting foreign investment and reducing trade frictions, and at the same time, it will adversely affect general trade exports, attracting foreign investment and employment in the short term.
1. Impact of RMB appreciation on China's export enterprises.
1. Adverse effects of RMB appreciation on China's export enterprises.
(1) The export of manufacturing products is generally greatly affected by exchange rate changes. The appreciation of RMB will increase the exchange cost of China's export enterprises and lead to the loss of price advantage. The export exchange cost refers to the RMB cost paid by China's net export income of $65,438 +0. China's manufacturing export products are mostly concentrated in the low end, and their competitive advantage is not strong. The way of competition is mainly through price means, and the appreciation of RMB will have a certain impact on its exports.
Restrain For manufacturing employees, employees who are seriously affected may face the danger of income decline or even unemployment. The negative impact on enterprises in labor-intensive industries will be greater than that on capital-intensive industries.
(2) It will slow down the export growth of most raw materials. The export price competitiveness of most raw materials products in China is not strong, and the dependence on exchange rate is high. For example, paper, cotton yarn, ferrous metal (steel, crude steel, manganese, etc. ), aluminum, wooden decorations, etc. The appreciation of RMB will slow down the export growth of these primary products and raw materials, which will have a negative impact on economic growth in the short term. The appreciation of RMB will also reduce the export of resource-based commodities such as crude oil, refined oil, logs, copper and gold mines. The more serious consequences of the losses caused by RMB appreciation are rising unemployment rate and increasing bad debts of banks. Because China is not rich in resources, these resource products are generally in industries with high energy consumption and high pollution. Excessive export of resource products will easily increase the tension of domestic "coal, electricity and oil transportation" in the short term. In the long run, it will increase the pressure on domestic environment and resources, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of domestic economy.
(3) psychological effects that affect people in transactions. The increase of production cost in the international market will be passed on to the price, so the appreciation of exchange rate will not have much impact on the profits of such enterprises. Due to currency appreciation, China's export products have price fluctuations in other countries. The appreciation of RMB has increased the production costs of these enterprises in China, while these enterprises in China have great cost advantages in the international market.
Lately, it has little impact on the interests of traders, but those with ulterior motives take this opportunity to create a psychological effect that is unfavorable to China internationally. People will think that the price of products from China has gone up without specific analysis, and businessmen will think that the products imported from China can't make much money, which will have a real negative impact on China's exports.
2. The favorable impact of RMB appreciation on China's export enterprises.
(1) RMB appreciation is beneficial for enterprises to enhance their independent innovation ability. At present, China is in the stage of catching up with technology, and enterprises have strong ability to introduce, digest and absorb technology. The appreciation of RMB can reduce the cost of independent development of enterprises, indirectly promote the technological upgrading of enterprises, enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises, and thus accelerate the optimization of industrial structure.
The pace of upgrading will promote the structural adjustment of export commodities.
(2) RMB appreciation is conducive to optimizing the structure of attracting foreign investment. The appreciation of RMB will improve the treatment of workers and attract high-tech talents. On the premise of China's independent innovation and technological progress, foreign capital will choose high-tech industries to invest, thus promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure and optimizing the export commodity structure.
(3) RMB appreciation is conducive to promoting overseas investment of China enterprises. Foreign direct investment by enterprises shall use the currency of the country where the investment destination is located. The appreciation of RMB significantly reduces the cost of overseas investment of Chinese enterprises, enhances their international purchasing power and foreign investment ability, and creates conditions for some powerful enterprises to implement the "going out" strategy.
(4) RMB appreciation is beneficial to the development of service industry and service trade. It can effectively squeeze out those inefficient enterprises with low technical content and added value and poor management in manufacturing industry, which is conducive to changing the situation of excessive concentration of resources in export industries (mainly the secondary industry), thus promoting the transformation of China's industrial structure to service industry, promoting the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure, promoting the rapid development of service industry, accelerating the development of service trade, and finally realizing the coordinated development of service trade and commodity trade and improving the comprehensive competitiveness of the whole country.
Second, the countermeasures of China's export enterprises after RMB appreciation. Theoretically speaking, the rise of RMB exchange rate will inevitably cause disadvantages to China's export enterprises, but from the actual trade volume, it is still uncertain whether the rise of RMB exchange rate will inevitably lead to this result, which is manifested in the continuous surplus of China's foreign trade volume. However, export enterprises should also actively respond to the continuous appreciation of RMB.
1. Avoiding exchange rate risk is an expedient measure for export enterprises to appreciate RMB in the short term. Faced with the rising RMB exchange rate, export enterprises must plan ahead. In addition to increasing their ability to resist risks, they should also rely on financial instruments developed by banks and other financial institutions to avoid risks and obtain and prepare more "lifebuoys" for themselves, so as to achieve the purpose of hedging or avoiding risks and improving operational efficiency.
(1) Pay attention to the change of RMB exchange rate and enhance the awareness of exchange rate risk. Paying attention to the change of RMB exchange rate is a long-term task for export enterprises. Enterprises should attach great importance to it, organize special forces, learn exchange rate management knowledge, closely follow the trend and changes of RMB exchange rate, especially pay attention to the recent changes of RMB exchange rate against major currencies such as the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen, thoroughly study the impact of RMB appreciation on their export products, and strive to improve the pertinence and effectiveness of the response. Export enterprises should strengthen the risk awareness of exchange rate changes, master effective means to control exchange rate risks, and constantly improve their ability and level to deal with exchange rate risks. For example, when signing an export contract, you can formulate relevant provisions on exchange rate risk to prevent unexpected situations.
(2) Flexible use of various financial instruments to lock and avoid exchange rate risks. Adopt flexible settlement methods and effective financial instruments, such as multi-currency settlement to transfer exchange rate risks, appropriately lock in exchange rate risks by means of foreign exchange forward trading and hedging, and reduce interest expenses and exchange difference losses through appropriate US dollar loans. In addition, if conditions permit, we should actively engage in forward foreign exchange trading, option trading and forex futures trading, and we can use this method to control exchange rate risk at the source of business.
(3) Accelerate export and reduce foreign exchange receivable. After the end of export transactions, enterprises should speed up the circulation of documents, strive to collect all relevant export documents in the first time, actively adopt bills of lading, factoring, etc., so that the bills in their hands can be settled and realized in time, and strive to use more than half of the export value to realize the withdrawal of payment. Enterprises should carry out more rapid export recovery business, appropriately control the business with long export recovery period, at the same time increase the collection of foreign exchange accounts receivable, shorten the settlement cycle, withdraw the payment as soon as possible, and reduce the occupation of funds in transit.
(4) Increase foreign exchange liabilities and balance foreign exchange receipts and payments. Enterprises can appropriately increase their foreign exchange liabilities by applying for foreign exchange payment, replacing RMB loans with foreign exchange loans, and delaying import payment. After the appreciation of the RMB, they can offset the depreciation risk of foreign exchange assets or make direct profits by repaying loans or purchasing foreign exchange for collection and payment.
2. The main strategies for export enterprises to cope with the long-term appreciation of RMB. While avoiding exchange rate risks, we should speed up the pace of structural adjustment, enhance the ability of independent innovation, improve competitiveness, tap the potential through strengthening internal management and technological transformation, and take the road of brand development. This is the long-term plan and fundamental strategy for enterprise development.
(1) Enterprises implement the "going out" strategy. It is necessary to solve ideological problems, speed up the pace of opening up to the outside world, encourage powerful and qualified large enterprises to invest abroad and acquire important overseas resources such as ores and nonferrous metals. In particular, electrolytic aluminum enterprises should give full play to their import and export rights, invest abroad, and establish a stable supply base for alumina, bauxite and other resources. Once the RMB appreciates, the production cost can be further reduced by increasing the import of raw materials. We should seriously study the feasibility of investing and setting up factories in developing countries and regions, develop new products, improve the scientific and technological content of products, increase the added value of products and strengthen the cost management of enterprises, reduce the production and operation costs, select some low-value-added processing enterprises with large product sales and sales networks, support these enterprises to set up factories in countries with low labor costs in policy, and put design departments and sales services at home. This can not only make use of the goodwill and marketing network established by the enterprise for many years, but also retain some jobs, realize curve export and reduce the trade surplus with major trading countries, and reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation.
(2) Optimize the structure of export commodities and vigorously explore the international market. Export enterprises, especially production-oriented export enterprises, should actively use new technologies, develop new products, continuously increase the added value of products, reduce the export of low-grade products with low prices and low profits, expand the export of high-quality and efficient products with their own brands, and improve the comprehensive competitiveness of export products. In addition, export enterprises should effectively strengthen the cost management of procurement, production, sales, capital operation and other links, fully tap their internal potential, reduce costs, expand product profit margins, and enhance the price competitiveness of export products. Only in this way can we avoid the risks brought by exchange rate fluctuations. During the period of RMB appreciation, the structural adjustment of the export industry is also a top priority. The international market is not infinite, and the traditional theory of comparative advantage in international trade has been greatly challenged. In some countries, industries with great comparative advantages are facing the problem of unsynchronized growth in international market demand, and there may also be oversupply in international trade. The most important means to solve overproduction is industrial adjustment or industrial transfer. Low-cost competition in China's export industry is one of the main reasons for overcapacity in many industries. This means that the protection of these industries may be detrimental to the long-term development of enterprises.
(3) Accelerate product upgrading and improve the grade of export products. China is a big manufacturing country. If a product sells well, there will be many homogeneous products with various names overnight, especially export enterprises. Many domestic enterprises are in the survival stage, lacking long-term brand planning, and most of their export products win at low prices. Production-oriented export enterprises should increase investment in technological transformation, speed up product upgrading and strive to improve.
Improve product quality and added value, reduce the export of low-grade products with low prices and low profits, expand the export of quality and efficiency and self-owned brand products, improve the comprehensive competitiveness of export products, and take the road of differentiation and branding. The appreciation of RMB may force some enterprises to upgrade their products and enhance their export competitiveness in terms of quality and brand. At present, among many products, especially those exported from light industry, there are still few products with high added value and high technology content. Enterprises should gradually adjust product structure and integrate resources, vigorously explore the international market, implement export diversification strategy, realize product export to capital and brand export, adjust product structure, and improve product quality and grade. Intensify the structural adjustment of export commodities. Seize the favorable opportunity of RMB appreciation and import cost reduction, actively import advanced equipment technology and key parts, promote the structural transformation and technological upgrading of export industries, and change the growth mode of foreign trade.