Analysis of the Impact of Zhou Shouliang's China Real Estate Price Fluctuation on Consumption —— An empirical study based on VAR model —— Real estate price fluctuation will have a direct impact on consumption behavior, and then affect future and future consumption. Therefore, it affects consumers' purchase of real estate commodities, especially those who rent houses, and the overall macro-economy of China. Firstly, this paper analyzes the internal influence of price fluctuation on consumption in real estate industry, which affects its savings and budget decision-making, and the result is social mechanism; Secondly, under the framework of VAR model, through the impulse response function and variance decomposition method, the decision shows that the price fluctuation of real estate industry has a significant negative impact on consumption, and this impact is rapid, which directly leads to the change of residents' consumption behavior. 3. Cost effect. The rise of real estate prices will be significant and concentrated in the short term; Finally, the countermeasures to stabilize the real estate price are put forward. Cost effect, which in turn affects residents' consumption. Because, for the VAR model of renting houses, keywords: the transmission mechanism of real estate price consumption, the rise of real estate price is generally related to the rise of rent, which is one of the pillar industries of the national economy. However, in recent years, a series of problems, such as the rapid rise in housing prices, are closely related, which directly leads to the rising cost of living for renters and contributes a lot in the long run. As real estate prices rise, community property fees will reduce consumption. It hinders the healthy development of China's macro-economy. Especially in 2009, the maintenance fees and parking fees of the real estate industry rose, the consumption expenditure of residents to maintain their houses increased, and "land kings" appeared frequently, thus promoting the rapid rise of land prices and house prices of related plots. For example, the rise in real estate prices will lead to enterprises and thus increase the cost of living. In addition, how to curb the excessive rise in housing prices has become a hot issue that the government and the public are most concerned about, and the increase in industry operating costs, including one of the problems of employees' lives. The health and stability of the real estate market is not only the pressure of rising wages brought by the development of an industry, but also related to the national economy and people's livelihood and people's well-being. The use of fees, thus affecting the economic behavior of enterprises. With the development of various industries, this multiplier effect will stimulate domestic demand, thus maintaining China's liquidity constraint effect. Most residents in China have achieved sustained, rapid and stable economic development through loans. Therefore, study the fluctuation of real estate price and the way to buy commercial housing. Mortgage loan for residential commercial housing is particularly important for most commercial consumption in China. An important source of bank income. If the central government does not regulate the credit line, the behavior of lending to buy a house, which makes banks and residents win-win, will create a currency with the internal mechanism of real estate price fluctuation affecting consumption, which will have a huge impact on market liquidity. Excess liquidity and fluctuations in real estate prices will affect China's macro-economy through various channels, which will inevitably lead to inflation. When residents are sensitive to rising CPI, China consumption is one of the important channels. The internal influence of real estate price fluctuation on consumption is the same. If the house will tighten its pockets to reduce consumption, it will buy goods with value preservation. Its mechanism is mainly: the soaring real estate prices exceed people's rational expectations, and banks will strictly control risks. The fluctuation of real estate price will produce wealth management for suppliers and re-evaluate the value of real estate commodities. The tightening of financing channels should include realized wealth effect and potential wealth effect. The former refers to the constraints that will reduce the current and even future consumption expectations of enterprises and residents and increase liquidity. Some people sell their houses or take advantage of their value because of the rising real estate prices. At this time, the rise of real estate prices directly promoted the increase of real wealth and expanded the consumption level of the current period. The latter refers to the owner. Second, the empirical analysis of the impact of real estate price fluctuation on consumption has not been realized, that is, the owner of real estate goods does not have 1. Even in the case of rising real estate prices, the choice of variables and the description of data. The variable explained in this paper is whether the society sells or refinances. The change rate of total retail sales of products LSRt① (1) is caused by the rise of real estate prices, because residents' consumption is mainly affected by the increase of consumption potential value, which makes residents feel the increase of wealth, thus expanding their income and wealth level. Therefore, the explanatory variable in this paper is not only marginal propensity to consume. Moreover, due to the rise of real estate prices, residents will also choose the average sales price change rate of commercial housing FQt②, and they will also choose urban per capita to have a good expectation for the future and increase current consumption. The change rate of disposable income SRRt③ is1from the first quarter of 995 to the fourth quarter of 2008. 2. Budget constraint effect. Relatively speaking, the fluctuation of real estate price will take quarterly data as a sample to analyze the influence of real estate price fluctuation on consumption. Searchers have a budget constraint effect. In recent years, the scale of population mobility in China is huge, reaching 2. Model building. Before establishing an econometric model, it is necessary to test the data level. At the end of 2008, there were as many as 300 million people. When the population from all over the country is stable, if the data is stable, it can be estimated directly by least square method; For example, most of them have rigid demand for real estate products. For renters, if the real estate data is unstable, it is necessary to test whether there is a cointegration relationship between variables. The rapid rise of the closing price will increase the opportunity cost of the rented house, which will lead to the nonstationary variables in the rental results, and the Ping Jin will increase after the first-order difference of the series, which will further reduce the current consumption of these renters. This cointegration test is mainly used to analyze whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between variables, which should have a greater impact on residents who want to buy a house. For potential consumers of the house, it is stable. The basic idea is that if two (or more) time series are non-real estate price increases, it will increase the repayment pressure, thus reducing the number of buyers. ① It is expressed by dividing the total retail sales of social consumer goods by the value of the same period last year, subtracting 1 and multiplying by 100. ② Expressed by the sales price index of commercial housing (same period of last year = 100 minus 100). ③ Divide the urban per capita disposable income by the value of the same period of last year, subtract 1 and multiply by 100. Price: Theory and Practice. Practice is stationary, but their linear combination shows stationarity, so there is a long-term stable relationship between these variables, that is, cointegration relationship. Because the system established in this paper contains more than two time series, Johansen test method is adopted in this paper. According to the Akachi Information Criterion (AIC and Schwartz Criterion), the maximum lag period k of VAR model composed of (SC, LSRt, T, T) is 3, so the lag period of FQ-SRR cointegration selection is 3. The results of the above co-integration test show that there is a co-integration relationship of 1 between LSRt, T and FQ series, so there is a long-term balanced SRRt relationship between the series, and the following co-integration vector can be obtained: analysis and forecast 1,) In the variance decomposition of the whole period of 10, the lag effect of the change rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods is the largest, indicating that the total retail sales of social consumer goods is the largest. Among the two independent variables of income and house price fluctuation, the influence of income fluctuation on consumption increases fastest, from 0.486% in the second period to 5.26%, while the variance contribution of house price fluctuation to consumption fluctuation is relatively stable, about 2.5%. Table 1 variance decomposition table of total retail sales of social consumer goods From the co-integration relationship between variables, it can be seen that the fluctuation of urban per capita disposable income has a positive impact on the fluctuation of total retail sales of social consumer goods, while the fluctuation of real estate prices has a negative impact on the fluctuation of total retail sales of social consumer goods. When the growth rate of urban per capita disposable income increased by 1 percentage point, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.057 percentage points; When the real estate price increases by 1 percentage point, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreases by 1.2 1 1 percentage point. This shows that residents' consumption in China is mainly affected by income, and the elastic coefficient is greater than1; The fluctuation of real estate price also has a very obvious influence on consumption behavior. When house prices rise too fast, residents scrimp and save to buy houses, which reduces the current consumption expenditure. This crowding-out effect of reducing current consumption and increasing future consumption is greater than the wealth effect and cost effect brought by rising house prices. 3. Using VAR model to dynamically analyze the impact of real estate prices. Impulse response function can measure the influence of standard shock from random disturbance term on the current and future values of endogenous variables. By decomposing the variance of explanatory variables, we can provide the proportion of other explanatory variables in the variance of each explanatory variable, so as to understand the relative importance of random information in the model to endogenous variables. The result of the impulse response function depends on the order in which the variables enter the VAR. The fluctuation of income is the dominant factor of consumption change, and the influence of house price fluctuation on consumption has experienced a complex transmission mechanism. Therefore, the order of setting VARiables as var is: LSRt, t, t give LSRt, t, t a big standard deviation and a small influence on SRRFQ respectively, and get a pulse of the change rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods (Figure 1). From the impulse response diagram, we can see the dynamic process of LSRt real estate price fluctuation. The fluctuation of total retail sales has a negative reaction to the fluctuation of real estate prices, and the reaction speed is relatively fast, reaching the maximum almost in the second quarter, and the decline speed is relatively slow, and it continues until after the seventh period. The fluctuation of real estate prices will not have a long-term impact on consumption, mainly because residents have digested the fluctuation of real estate prices and rationally expected the future fluctuation of real estate prices. In order to deeply understand the relative importance of each variable information to consumption fluctuation, this paper decomposes the house price index into variance. According to the results of variance decomposition (Table 3, conclusions and countermeasures), according to the results of empirical research, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate price fluctuation and consumption, and the rise of real estate price will quickly reduce residents' consumption. Expenditure, which is contrary to China's current basic policy of expanding domestic demand and maintaining stable economic growth. Therefore, controlling the excessive rise in housing prices is also a way to expand domestic demand, which will stimulate and drive the development of other industries. Because of the way. In addition, the stability of real estate prices plays a great role in stimulating domestic demand. At present, the countermeasures and suggestions for stabilizing real estate prices are as follows: 1. Increase the supply of affordable housing. On the one hand, the increase of affordable housing will promote the competition in the commercial housing market and reduce the equilibrium price; On the other hand, it will quickly release the potential demand of residents for housing. The realization of housing demand can stimulate other expenditures, thus expanding domestic demand and driving the sustained and stable development of China's national economy. 2. Affect investment expectations. Real estate products have the dual characteristics of ordinary commodities and investment products. Investors choose real estate investment because of their expectations of rising real estate prices and future inflation. Therefore, the government and the central bank should adopt prudent monetary and fiscal policies, affect the expectations of exchange rate, interest rate and inflation, and then change the allocation of resources and reduce investors' enthusiasm for real estate investment. 3. Restrain speculative consumption. With the full cooperation of the central ministries and commissions and the active cooperation of local governments, owner-occupied consumption and speculative consumption can be distinguished through changes in loan interest rates and tax rates. Improve the pre-sale system of commercial housing. Standardize the development of the second-hand housing market, advocate housing rental consumption and revitalize the housing rental market. 4. Rectify and standardize the order of the real estate market, and strictly enforce the market access and exit conditions of real estate enterprises. Improve China's land auction and income management methods to curb the excessive rise of land prices. Investigate and deal with illegal acts such as idle, hoarding land and houses, covering up sales, and driving up housing prices according to law. Reference: [1] Zhang Hong. Real estate economics [M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2005 [2] Liang, Gao Tiemei, Shirley He. An empirical analysis of the coordinated development of real estate market and national economy [J].[3] Yang Chaojun, Liao, 2006 (3).[4] Wang, 2006 (6). An empirical test of the relationship between real estate industry and economic growth under the framework. VAR Model [J]. Economic Issues, 2007 (7) [5], Han Helin, Zhao. The Impact of China Real Estate Price Fluctuation on the Economy-Also on the Macro-control of China Real Estate [J]. Analysis of the impact of price theory and practice, 2009 (August) (author: Dongbei University of Finance and Economics) Figure 1 Impulse response of consumption to house prices 58 ④ In the figure, the horizontal axis indicates the number of lag periods of the impact (unit: quarter), the vertical axis indicates the change rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the solid line indicates the response degree of LSRt to the impact of FQt.