First, the current basic situation of the world economy
20 10 is a turning point for countries to recharge their batteries and adjust their strength after the international financial crisis. Under the action of large-scale economic stimulus measures and loose monetary policy, the world economic recovery momentum is relatively strong, developed countries have bottomed out and stabilized, while developing countries and emerging countries have steadily rebounded. The deepening of economic globalization and scientific and technological progress has promoted world economic growth, and green industries such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection have become new economic growth points. At the same time, the fiscal deficits of developed economies are rising, and the inflation in emerging economies such as India and Vietnam is serious. The debt crisis in Dubai and Greece has repeatedly shown that the unstable factors of the world economy still exist.
20 1 1, although the international economic environment is improving in the short term, the economic stimulus plans of various countries have basically ended, and it is difficult for the world economy, trade and industrial production to maintain a rebound growth of 20 10, and the growth rate may obviously slow down; Uncertain risks caused by employment, debt and inflation may continue to be released, and macroeconomic policies of major economies may be further divided. The endogenous driving force of world economic growth is still insufficient, the private demand in developed economies is weak, the United States continues to be troubled by unemployment, the euro zone is facing the pressure of fiscal austerity, Japan continues to face the pressure of deflation, and the inflationary pressure in developing economies is further increasing ... For China, these new changes and new patterns mean new challenges and contain unprecedented major opportunities.
Second, the challenges facing China's economic development
First of all, trade protectionism threatens the recovery of China and even the global economy. With the easing of the financial crisis and the recovery of the world economy, the spirit of cooperation shown by the international community at the beginning of the crisis has been shaken, and some views and practices that run counter to globalization have become increasingly prominent. Some countries verbally oppose trade protectionism, but take anti-dumping and countervailing measures in action, and trade protectionism has risen. In fact, in the process of economic globalization, economies are interdependent, and no country can completely break away from the global economy and rely on its own strength to achieve development. Especially in such a special period as the post-financial crisis, the world economy is still fragile, with few employment opportunities and high unemployment rate. If countries adopt trade protectionism, the international trade pattern will undergo major changes, the world economic recovery will face a crisis, and China's foreign trade will be greatly challenged.
Second, China's industrial structure has been squeezed by the high-end from the United States and Europe and the low-end from emerging developing countries. Before the financial crisis, the United States, Europe and other countries relied on financial expansion to support deficit consumption. They export high-tech products, and then import a large number of labor-intensive products, and the people rely on credit for consumption. In developing countries represented by China, domestic production exceeds domestic demand, and a large number of labor-intensive products can only be exported. However, after the financial crisis, deleveraging led developed countries such as the United States to reduce consumption and increase savings, thus reducing the demand for labor-intensive products and increasing China's export pressure. On the other hand, after the financial crisis, products from Honduras, Vietnam, India and other developing countries have also entered the European and American markets. They used lower resources and labor costs than China to produce labor-intensive products with lower costs than China, replacing the export momentum of labor-intensive products in China, just as China replaced the "Four Little Dragons of Asia" after the Asian financial crisis.
Third, China is facing a situation where economic downturn and rising inflationary pressure coexist. This year, China's macroeconomic operation is relatively stable, and investment is still the main force of economic growth. However, under the comprehensive effect of economic restructuring, tight monetary policy and declining export growth rate, compared with last year, the economic growth rate showed a slight downward trend, and the GDP growth rate was "low before and then high". Moreover, since the end of last year, food prices in China have been rising one after another. Up to now, many factors that promote the price increase still exist: the currency continues to be oversold; Labor costs continue to rise; The pressure of imported inflation and the inflow of "hot money" continue unabated. This will make inflation show a long-term trend. According to Li Daokui, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank, after the adjustment of the financial crisis, China's monetary stock has exceeded 10 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world, and the ratio of monetary stock to GDP has reached 200%. He also said that an oversupply of money would lead to a rapid rise in asset prices and a bubble. Once the bubble bursts suddenly, it will bring a series of negative effects.
Fourthly, under the impact of the financial crisis, the total and structural contradictions of employment in China suddenly broke out, which was extremely acute. As a big country with a population of 654.38+0.3 billion, it is in a critical period of economic system reform and profound changes in social structure, with various contradictions and problems converging, and the employment situation is very grim. Coupled with the financial turmoil, a large number of enterprises lost their jobs, a large number of migrant workers lost their original jobs, and the employment channels for new labor were blocked, which aggravated the employment difficulties of college students and other groups. Moreover, in response to such a complicated situation, the measures to solve employment under normal conditions are obviously insufficient, and must be solved through a variety of combined policy measures and channels, such as macro and micro, emergency and long-term, direct and indirect.
Three. Opportunities for China's Economic Development
First of all, the further development of economic globalization is still a great opportunity for China to accelerate its development. With the improvement of the degree of opening to the outside world, the scale of China's foreign trade and investment is constantly expanding, and its connection with the international market is increasingly close. We can optimize the allocation of resources in a wider scope, further give play to the advantages of labor resources, and make up for the shortage of resources through international exchanges. Moreover, if a country wants to develop its economy, it should not only pay attention to the growth of its economic aggregate, but also pursue the continuous optimization and transformation of its economic structure. Participating in globalization will enable China to directly use advanced scientific and technological achievements to develop high-tech industries and transform traditional industries, develop its economy at a higher starting point, bypass the detours that traditional industrialized countries have gone through, give full play to its "advantage of being a latecomer", and get twice the result with half the effort in establishing a modern economic structure.
Secondly, the global rise of green industry provides new opportunities for China's industrial transformation and upgrading. Developing emerging green industries is not only conducive to protecting the environment, improving the efficiency of energy and resource utilization and promoting China's industrial upgrading, but also provides a good opportunity for China to catch up with the new round of global industrial adjustment and development and narrow the gap with developed countries, because China is still in the initial stage of development. In addition, green industries such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection have great development potential, creating opportunities for China to cultivate new economic growth points and market demand.
Finally, the changes in the world economic structure will further enhance China's international influence. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing rapidly, the scale of foreign investment has been expanding rapidly, and its contribution to world economic growth has been increasing. However, China's voice in international economic and financial affairs is still not high, and it has been in a passive position in the formulation of international economic and trade rules and the coordination of macroeconomic policies for a long time. The international financial crisis has brought about new changes in the world economic structure. The strength of developed and developing countries is changing, and the status of major emerging economies in the world economy will further rise. Moreover, changes in the world economic structure will also push the international economic order towards a more just and rational direction, which will help China and other developing countries to better safeguard their own interests and achieve long-term development goals.
Four. conclusion
Under the current situation of world economic development, China still faces opportunities and challenges. We should have a correct understanding of the current economic situation, accurately judge the future trend, enhance our sense of hardship, seize and grasp the rare development opportunity from the changeable situation, discover and cultivate positive factors in adversity, take Scientific Outlook on Development as the guide, turn the crisis into vitality, turn the period of economic fluctuation into the period of development opportunity, and take practical and effective measures to maintain steady and rapid economic growth.