(A) the characteristics of China's economic operation under the new normal
1. The economic growth rate turned to medium-high speed growth, and the dynamic structure of economic growth changed.
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has shown a high-speed growth trend. During the 35 years from 1979 to 20 13, the economic growth rate in 16 exceeded 10% (inclusive), with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%. Since 20 10, China's economic growth has entered a new downward range, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% in the first three quarters of 20 15. Under the "new normal", China's economy will shift from a high-speed growth zone to a medium-high-speed growth zone. At the same time, in the "Troika" that drives economic growth, the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth has steadily increased, the consumption structure has generally become reasonable, and the consumption structure of urban residents is gradually changing to rationalization; The contribution rate of investment has obviously decreased, but the investment structure has changed positively and the quality is improving. Trade in services is growing faster than trade in goods, and its quality is also improving.
2. The industrial structure has been continuously upgraded and the income distribution structure has been improved.
In recent years, the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in China's GDP is on the rise. In the first three quarters of 20 14, the added value of China's tertiary industry was 196 125 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period. From the internal structure of three industries, the internal structure of agriculture has been continuously optimized, high-tech industries and emerging industries have played a leading role in industrial growth, and the internal structure of the tertiary industry has been gradually optimized. From the perspective of income and distribution, the nominal growth rate of residents' income in the first three quarters was higher than that of fiscal revenue and corporate profits, indicating that the proportion of residents' income in the initial distribution of national income has increased. According to the income ratio index to measure the income gap between urban and rural residents, the urban-rural income ratio of Chinese residents in the first three quarters of 20 14 years was 2.59, which was 0.05 percentage point lower than the same period of last year and 0. 1 1 percentage point lower than the end of 2010. This shows that the income ratio between urban and rural areas is declining, and the gap between urban and rural areas is gradually narrowing.
3. Coordinated development of regional economy, enhancing the driving force of innovation.
At present, the central and western regions are full of stamina. In terms of industrial and investment growth, total import and export volume, general budget revenue of local finance, and residents' income, the western region was higher than the national average in the first three quarters, and the growth rate of major economic indicators was close to or faster than that of the eastern region, achieving coordinated development of regional economy. At the same time, China has made remarkable achievements in accelerating the reform and development of science and technology and building an innovative country. At present, the national capital investment in the venture capital plan for emerging industries has reached 7.05 billion yuan, driving local capital and social capital to 63.85 billion yuan, realizing the leverage amplification effect of 1: 9. 1; Strategic emerging industries have a good development trend. In the first quarter, the growth rate of operating income of listed companies in strategic emerging industries reached 10.9%, which was higher than the average growth rate of listed companies of 6.4%, and their profits increased by 15.4% year-on-year, making them the most brilliant sector in the stock market. As the main body of technological innovation, by the end of 20 14 and 10, enterprises had obtained 888752 effective invention patents at home and abroad, accounting for 76. 1% of the national effective invention patents. Generally speaking, the total amount of scientific and technological human resources in China ranks first in the world, the number of international scientific and technological papers ranks second, the number of invention patents ranks third, and the number of international scientific and technological papers cited ranks seventh. Become a powerful scientific and technological country with world influence.
4. Accumulated staged risks began to appear.
At present, the cumulative and staged risks of China's economic operation are increasingly prominent, which are mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, the risk of overcapacity. According to statistics, in the third quarter of 20 14, China's capacity utilization rate was 78.7%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, which was at a low level in the past four years. The second is the local government debt risk. According to the announcement of the national government debt audit results released by the National Audit Office at the end of 20 13, by the end of 20 13, the balance of local government debt was 10.58 trillion yuan, up by 19.97% year-on-year. The third is the risk in the real estate sector. From June of 20 14 to June of 10, the national investment in real estate development was 687,565,438+200 million yuan, up by 12.5% year-on-year, down by 6.7 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The sales of commercial housing was 49,227.01billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year, up 32.3% year-on-year and up 26.3% year-on-year.
(2) The future trend of China's economic development under the new normal.
1. The development pattern of stable economic growth in the future will not change.
Although China's growth rate has declined since 20 10, and there are still some uncertainties in future economic growth, on the whole, the development pattern of stable economic growth will not change significantly. First, the pulling effect of domestic demand is enhanced, the pulling effect of the three major demands on economic growth is gradually coordinated, and the endogenous and stable economic operation is enhanced. Second, the tone of national macro-control has been adjusted. Since 20 13, the state has begun to adjust the direction of macro-control. In the face of economic downturn, the central government has made it clear that it will not adopt large-scale policies to stimulate the economy, insist on not expanding the fiscal deficit, and neither relax nor tighten monetary policy. 20 14 The biggest highlight of macro-control is "precise directional control". By expanding investment, stabilizing foreign trade, directionally lowering the deposit reserve ratio, reducing taxes and other measures, the weak links of the economy are precisely controlled, while taking into account the purpose of structural adjustment. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to "continue to implement directional control and structural control". Therefore, directional regulation will become the main macro-control mode and policy tone in the coming period, which will help to promote China's economy to effectively guard against risks and keep the economy running in a reasonable range through the combination of far and near regulation.
2. The external environment has more influence on opportunities than challenges.
In recent years, China's open economy is actually facing extremely severe external challenges. Affected by the escalating European debt crisis, the slow pace of economic recovery in the United States, the impact on emerging economies, fluctuations in international commodity prices, and the sluggish world trade situation, China's foreign trade exports have grown slowly. In contrast, in the next few years, the macroeconomic policies of major countries are expected to stabilize, the economies of developed economies are expected to further improve, the world economy as a whole is in a stable state, and the international market demand will pick up. The latest World Economic Outlook Report released by the World Bank predicts that the global economic growth rate will rebound to 3.8% in 20 15. Although there are still many uncertainties in the international economic environment, the overall external development trend is beneficial to us.
3. Reform in key areas will stimulate endogenous growth momentum.
With the establishment of the central reform decision, releasing the reform dividend and promoting economic transformation and upgrading have become the focus of economic development under the "new normal". Multi-field system construction will stimulate the power of economic growth: first, promote land and household registration reform, accelerate the pace of new urbanization, and provide a foundation for expanding domestic demand; The second is to promote administrative and financial reforms and stimulate the vitality of market players through decentralization, adjustment of financial relations at all levels, and structural tax cuts; Third, promote financial reform, improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation, develop private banks, promote fair competition in financial markets, and provide a convenient platform for corporate financing; Fourth, the central government is promoting the construction of major economic roads (belts) such as the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. These national strategies will surely bring sustained impetus to China's economic growth.
People's livelihood economy will be the basic direction of economic development.
At the closing meeting with reporters, he said: "Our people love life and expect better education, more stable jobs, more satisfactory income, more reliable social security, higher-level medical and health services, more comfortable living conditions and a more beautiful environment, and expect children to grow up, work and live better. The people's yearning for a better life is our goal. " Safeguarding and improving the conditions for the survival and development of social members runs through the whole process of economic operation such as production, distribution, exchange and consumption, focusing on improving the income and welfare level of workers and increasing the proportion of workers' income in national income distribution. This means ensuring and improving people's livelihood throughout the whole process of economic development, thus forming a necessary condition and inexhaustible motive force for sustained, rapid, coordinated and healthy economic development.
20 17 is a crucial year for comprehensively deepening reform, the first year for comprehensively promoting the rule of law, and the last year for comprehensively completing the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, which is of great significance for doing a good job in economic work. 20 17 the downward pressure on China's economy is still relatively large. In the future, we should fully grasp the new changes in the total supply and demand relationship, actively adapt to the new normal of economic development, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, keep the economic operation in a reasonable range, put the mode of transformation and structural adjustment in a more important position, and strive to improve the quality of economic operation. At the same time, actively promote reform and opening up, speed up economic system reform, and create a better institutional environment for improving the quality of economic growth.
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