Since 2008, the Vietnamese government has not allowed private coal mining, and all coal mines have agreed to be distributed by the state. At the same time, the coal trade with Guangxi is no longer a border trade, and can only be exported through international trade. As a result, the price of imported coal in Guangxi rose.
2. Guangxi coal import
Guangxi's coal imports in June 5438+ 10 reached 337,000 tons, down 74.2% year-on-year; The average import price was 6 1.9 USD/ton, up 30.7% year-on-year.
According to customs statistics, Guangxi imported 337,000 tons of coal in June 5438+ 10, down 74.2% from the same period in 2008. It hit the lowest monthly import since June 5438+ 10, 2006, and the import volume fell from the second place in 2008 to the third place, accounting for 1 1.3% of the total coal import in the same period. The import value was US$ 20.856 million, down 66.3%; The average import price was 6 1.9 USD/ton, up by 30.7%. Main features of coal import in June+10, 5438:
I. Imports continued the downward trend since June 2008. Since June 2008, Guangxi's coal imports have plummeted. From June to June, 2008 to February, 2008, the coal imports were about 300,000-500,000 tons respectively, which was far lower than the average import of 654.38 million tons in the first five months. The average import price has shown a downward trend since June. After bottoming out in June 2008, it rebounded slightly in June 2009, up 3.7% from the previous month.
Second, the import of major trade methods has fallen sharply. From June 5438- 10, Guangxi imported 249,000 tons of coal in the form of small-scale border trade, down 77.4%. General trade imports were 88,000 tons, down by 57.25%.
3. The import of coastal cities generally shows a downward trend. In June, 5438+ 10, the imported coal was mainly concentrated in Fangchenggang, Qinzhou and Liuzhou, with 234,000 tons, 63,000 tons and 33,000 tons imported respectively, down by 72.3%, 79.6% and 36.5% respectively. The total import volume of these three cities accounted for 97.9% of Guangxi's total coal import volume in June+10/October, 5438.
Four. Anthracite imports are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and Australia. In June 5438+ 10, Guangxi imported 253,000 tons of anthracite from Vietnam, down 77.7%, accounting for 75. 1% of Guangxi's total coal imports. The average price was USD 54.4/ton, up by 25.4%, and 33,000 tons were imported from Australia, down by 36.5%. The average price is 94.7 USD/ton, down 32.3%, which is 40.3 USD/ton higher than the price of anthracite imported from Vietnam.
Five, the decline in imports of enterprises is different. In June 5438+ 10, private enterprises imported 253,000 tons of coal, down 77.5%, accounting for 75.1%of the total coal imports; Foreign-invested enterprises imported 565,438+million tons, down 57%; State-owned enterprises imported 33,000 tons, down 36.5%.
Affected by the cold domestic economic environment, domestic coal supply exceeds demand, and the demand for imported coal decreases rapidly. In 2008, Guangxi's coal imports declined for the first time in the past five years. In order to gain a favorable situation in the annual contract negotiation of coal-fired power, domestic coal enterprises have taken measures to limit production and protect prices, and coal prices have rebounded month by month. As of February 23rd 10, the flat cabin price of Qinhuangdao 5800 kcal coal was 620-640 yuan/ton, which was higher by 40 yuan/ton than that of February 23rd 65438. Due to the high asking price of domestic coal enterprises, the connection between coal production, transportation and demand in 2009 will be fruitless. Although domestic coal enterprises have effectively supported the price, the domestic coal output has been greatly reduced. It is difficult to comment on this article (0) Other comments initiated topics (0) Relevant information and financial circles (0) Coal outside the region has entered Guangxi. At the same time, in response to the declining global coal demand caused by the worsening financial tsunami, China's three major coal import countries, such as Viet Nam, Indonesia and Australia, are actively taking measures to relax their coal exports and seek to expand their coal exports to China in 2009.
In the long run, Guangxi is a province with a serious shortage of coal. Most of the coal used for industrial production and residents' life depends on external adjustment, and the demand is still strong; With the accelerated development of heavy industry in Guangxi coastal areas, the demand for electric coal will continue to increase, and the coal supply is still in a tight state; Coal in Vietnam is cheap and convenient to transport. Based on the analysis of the above factors, it is predicted that Guangxi's coal imports will gradually pick up in 2009.
3. Vietnam's coal policy fluctuates, and Guangxi actively responds.
The biggest variable brought by Vietnamese economic fluctuation to the economies of neighboring China and Guangxi is coal.
"It is estimated that the coal gap in Guangxi will reach 10 million tons this year." Zhang Zhendong, deputy secretary general of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Government, told China Business News yesterday. In 2007, Guangxi imported 0/4.04 million tons of coal, including 0/3.33 million tons from Vietnam.
affect
The data shows that Vietnam has been Guangxi's largest trading partner in ASEAN for nine consecutive years. In 2007, the trade volume between the two sides reached 2.38 billion US dollars, accounting for 15.7% of the total trade volume between China and Vietnam.
Regarding the impact of Vietnamese economic turmoil on Guangxi, Zhang Zhendong said that Guangxi's foreign trade exports have been affected, but it is not big, and the most affected is coal.
Statistics from Nanning Customs show that in 2007, Guangxi imported14.04 million tons of coal, of which13.33 million tons was imported from Vietnam, an increase of 40.7%. In 2007, Guangdong imported 1, 45 1 10,000 tons of coal, of which Vietnamese coal accounted for more than one third. Guangdong and Guangxi account for as much as 90% of Vietnamese coal imports from China.
However, Vietnam's coal export policy has changed recently.
According to relevant reports, on May 28th, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam issued Document No.4437, stipulating that Vietnam would unilaterally stop the Sino-Vietnamese coal border trade activities from June 1 day; On June 18, Vietnam further raised its coal export tariff to 20%.
"The price per ton of coal from Vietnam has recently increased by $25 at one time." Zhang Wenjun, director of Beihai Land and Resources Bureau, told this reporter that compared with domestic coal, its price has no advantage.
According to Zhang Zhendong, in 2007, the demand for coal in Guangxi was 50 million tons, of which 6 million tons were self-produced. Affected by Vietnam, from this year to now, Guangxi's coal imports have dropped by 20% year-on-year.
A concrete example is that dongxing city, a subsidiary of Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, imported about 60% of Vietnamese coal in the whole autonomous region. However, according to the data provided by dongxing city Customs, the city only imported 365,438,070 tons of Vietnamese coal from June to May this year, a year-on-year decrease of 65,438,007%.
Countermeasures
Although the data shows that the amount of coal from Vietnam is declining. However, the impact on Guangxi may not be as great as expected.
In addition to buying coal through overseas channels such as Vietnam, Guangxi also bought coal from Guizhou before. Zhang Zhendong revealed that the snowstorm at the beginning of this year affected Guizhou's coal production capacity, and it has not yet recovered to the pre-disaster level.
In this regard, Guangxi urgently expanded coal sources through multiple channels. "We are strengthening procurement with Yunnan; It is also necessary to increase negotiations with Indonesia and Australia. " Zhang Zhendong said.
In China, Fangchenggang is the only place connected with Vietnamese land and sea. Zheng Dong, deputy secretary-general of Fangchenggang Municipal Government of Guangxi, told this reporter that most of the bulk coal needed by Fangchenggang City is not from Vietnam, but mostly from small coal.
Small-scale trade involving coal has not been greatly affected by the policy changes in Vietnam. Reflected in the data, Fangchenggang imported 6 million tons of coal from Vietnam last year and has reached more than 3 million tons this year.
"In addition, the coal source of Fangchenggang Thermal Power Plant comes from Indonesia, so the changes in Vietnam have little impact on Fangchenggang." Zheng Dong said.
In addition, a bureau-level official in Yulin revealed to this newspaper that many individuals and small enterprises in Yulin went to Vietnam to dig coal and sell it to Guangxi. Even though Vietnam has issued a ban, they have never heard of it.
Vietnam will supply 6.5438 million tons of coal to Guangxi Chongzuo Power Plant every year.
At the unveiling ceremony of "Guodian Chongzuo Power Generation Co., Ltd." held in Nanning, the reporter learned that Chongzuo Power Plant, a Sino-Vietnamese coal-electricity cooperation project planned for more than two years, has completed the establishment of legal person and started to enter the implementation stage. From 2007, Vietnam Coal Mining Group will supply 1 10,000 tons of coal to Chongzuo Power Plant every year in the form of trade.
The congratulatory letter from Vietnam's Ministry of Industry said: "Chongzuo's power plant project is a huge energy project, and Vietnam Coal Mining Group will participate in the supply of coal raw materials." "This is one of the major projects in the cooperation plan of" two corridors and one circle "that senior leaders of China and Vietnam attach importance to. The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry welcomes this win-win and mutually beneficial cooperation project."
According to Luo Dianlong, secretary of Guangxi Chongzuo Municipal Party Committee, the first batch of 6,543,800 tons of coal specially designed by Vietnam Coal and Mineral Group for various tests of Chongzuo Power Plant has arrived at Deng Tong Railway Freight Yard in Vietnam and will arrive in Chongzuo around the 20th of this month.
Luo Dianlong said: "There are high-grade highways and railways connecting the provinces and regions in northern Vietnam, where there are abundant coal resources, and Chongzuo, which is located in the southwest border of China. In 2005, negotiations between Chongzuo City and Vietnam Coal and Mineral Group with rapid economic development and tight energy supply have quietly started. "
At the 3rd China-ASEAN Expo held on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2006, China Guodian Corporation and Vietnam Coal Mining Group signed the Agreement on Cooperative Construction of Chongzuo Power Plant in Chongzuo City, which included: Vietnam Coal Mining Group provided coal for the first phase of the power plant project, invested in the second phase of the power plant project, and jointly developed the coal fields in the Red River Plain of Vietnam.
Chen Fei, deputy general manager of China Guodian Corporation, said that the cooperation project of Chongzuo Power Plant has deepened the relationship from simple coal trade to power plant construction, and the joint development of coal construction and coalfields, which indicates that the Sino-Vietnamese coal-fired power project has gradually entered a higher level.
According to Guodian Chongzuo Power Generation Co., Ltd., the first phase of the project is Chongzuo Power Plant with two 600,000-watt units, with a total investment of 4.8 billion yuan, which is jointly invested and constructed by China Guodian Corporation, Tangshan Huawei Investment Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Dameng Company. At present, 26 special research reports, such as project feasibility study, land pre-examination, planning and site selection, and environmental impact assessment, have passed the review and are waiting for the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission.