First, the domestic internal combustion engine industry development prospect analysis
The compound annual growth rate of gas turbine industry in recent 10 years is 13.5%, which is higher than GDP growth rate in the same period. The sales volume of automobile internal combustion engine accounts for 15.2% of the internal combustion engine industry, but it accounts for 75% in terms of power, which is the most important sub-industry of the internal combustion engine industry. At present, automobile internal combustion engines are mainly sold in China. According to the data in 2008, the export volume was 430,000 units, accounting for only 5% of the total. From the past 10 years, with the improvement of domestic automobile engine technology, domestic automobile production has maintained a high engine self-sufficiency rate, which has remained above 90%. Only some high-end engines are imported to support the high-end models of the joint venture. After several years of rapid development, China's automobile industry has leapt to the second place in the world, second only to the United States. China's automobile industry is still in the primary stage, and domestic demand will grow rapidly for a long time. Considering the pull of export market, the total domestic and export automobile sales should maintain a compound annual growth rate of 15-20% in the next 10 year. In the future 10, the compound annual growth rate of automobile internal combustion engines should be basically the same as the sales growth rate of automobile industry, and should be kept at around 15-20%.
From the industrial chain structure of domestic automobile internal combustion engines, the market share of independent engine companies in the diesel engine field is relatively high, reaching 57.4%, of which Yuchai Power's market share is as high as 23.0%. The market share of independent engine companies in the field of gasoline engines is relatively low, only 13.8%, of which dongan power and its affiliated companies account for 8.7%. Domestic independent engine companies in gasoline engine field and diesel engine field all present a certain monopoly competition pattern in the industry. Compared with the competition pattern of international independent engine companies, it is not difficult to find that domestic independent engine companies have relatively high market share in the field of diesel engines and gasoline engines, especially gasoline engines.
There are few independent gasoline engine companies in the world, and large passenger car groups are all affiliated to gasoline engine companies. We judge that the main reason is that the international passenger car company has a large production scale and the engine business is self-operated. On the one hand, it is conducive to improving the speed of integrated development of new cars and bringing them to the market faster, on the other hand, it is conducive to improving the operating profit margin. However, domestic passenger cars are still in the early stage of development, and some smaller vehicle companies generally adopt outsourcing management mode for engine R&D and production, with large investment, so independent gasoline engine companies have certain living space. We expect that this trend will continue in the future, and the market share of independent engine companies in the field of gasoline engines will continue to decrease.
Second, the market prospect of diesel engines is infinitely bright.
It has long been recognized by the industry that diesel engines save 30% energy than gasoline engines. In the current situation of fuel shortage and stricter emission restrictions, this advantage of diesel engine is highlighted. On August 8, 2007, robert bosch Co., Ltd., the second largest auto parts manufacturer in the world, announced in Wuxi that Bosch Automotive Diesel Engine System Co., Ltd., a joint venture between Bosch Group and Wuxi Fu Wei Group, was formally established. The registered capital of the joint venture company is US$ 200 million, with Bosch and Fu Wei holding 67% and 33% shares respectively. This is the largest investment project of Bosch diesel system outside Germany. Strengthening and expanding Bosch's ability to produce and develop modern diesel systems in China is an important part of Bosch Group's global strategy. Bosch is very optimistic about the future market of diesel vehicles in China. It is estimated that by 20 13, the number of diesel vehicles in China will reach 3 million, mainly in the field of commercial vehicles.
Prior to this, Delphi, the world's largest component supplier, introduced diesel engines in Shanghai, and announced that it would sign new diesel rail system supply contracts with three China engine manufacturers in the near future and establish a new production base in China. At present, Delphi will first use its existing facilities in India and South Korea for production, and at the same time establish a new base in China. After the implementation of the plan, the annual production capacity of 6.5438+0 million sets of track systems in Asia will be formed. So far, in 2004, the world's two major auto parts manufacturers announced their involvement in the domestic diesel engine market, which is undoubtedly optimistic about the huge development space and prospects of diesel engines in the China market. At present, Europe and America 100% heavy-duty vehicles and 90% commercial vehicles use diesel engines, and European and American diesel vehicles have also accounted for 32% of car production, and France, Spain and other countries have reached more than 50%.
With the increasingly prominent economic and environmental performance of diesel engines, the gradual expansion of diesel vehicle sales is an inevitable trend. If half of passenger cars in China use diesel like French and Italian cars, then China will become the largest diesel market in the world. The bright future market prospect of diesel engine has become a suspense without suspense. At the same time, with the international diesel engine parts factories sweeping in, domestic joint venture automobile manufacturers have also attacked in order to seize the opportunity. In 2006, FAW-Volkswagen launched Audi A62.5TDI, the first high-end diesel vehicle in China. Ruifeng diesel commercial vehicle will surpass gasoline vehicle and occupy half of Ruifeng commercial vehicle.
Although diesel engines have made great progress abroad, the domestic pace is still far behind foreign countries, and there are still several obstacles in the use of diesel vehicles in China. First of all, the relevant departments have restrictions on the driving of diesel vehicles. This is mainly due to the smoke phenomenon of diesel engines, but with the advantages of diesel vehicles gradually emerging, the government should encourage the use of diesel passenger cars. Secondly, consumers don't know that diesel vehicles are more environmentally friendly and energy-saving. In fact, diesel engines not only save fuel by 30% compared with gasoline engines of the same grade, but also reduce the greenhouse effect by 45%. Although diesel vehicles are more expensive than the same gasoline vehicles 1 10,000 yuan, the cost can be recovered within two years by saving fuel money. Thirdly, domestic diesel products are not good. At present, the sulfur content and moisture content of domestic diesel really need to be improved. Finally, there are too few passenger cars with diesel engines. Although domestic FAW-Volkswagen has introduced diesel Jetta, Bora and Audi cars, as well as JAC's diesel Ruifeng, there are still too few diesel vehicles to choose from.
Three, the forecast and analysis of diesel engine market competition pattern
At present, the influence of "increasing charging mileage by weight" on the consumption of heavy trucks and semi-trailer tractors is gradually weakening; Before the official implementation of national III standard, the centralized consumption of national II heavy-duty vehicles formed an "overdraft" for future demand; High cardinal utility; The sudden support of natural disasters for heavy trucks is difficult to sustain; The negative effects of macro-control will gradually emerge. By the first half of 2009, the sales growth rate of heavy vehicles was close to 50%, and the production and sales cycle of heavy vehicles reached its peak in June. In 2008, the sales growth rate dropped to 65,438+00%, and in 2009, the sales growth rate was around -20%. This round of adjustment is expected to last for one year, and heavy vehicles will gradually recover at 20 10. The production and sales of medium-sized cars will fluctuate like heavy vehicles, but the fluctuation range will not be so great. The policy sensitivity of light commercial vehicles is low, and the fluctuation of market demand will not be like that of medium and heavy vehicles. However, in the medium and long term, under the macro environment of emission regulations and high oil prices, and under the strong competition of advanced technology and abundant funds of multinational enterprises, the light diesel engine market will undergo tremendous changes.