I. Impact of RMB appreciation on monetary policy and banking industry and countermeasures At present, the severe challenge facing China's central bank's monetary policy is excess liquidity. The foreign exchange settlement and sale business of commercial banks has obtained a large number of RMB positions, and with the strong growth of savings, the liquidity is obviously surplus. A large part of the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves is related to the expectation of RMB appreciation. In order to provide a relatively relaxed environment for exchange rate reform and avoid the influx of international hot money, the central bank lowered the market interest rate to increase the cost of international speculative capital. But low interest rates and excessive liquidity will lead to a series of problems. For commercial banks, due to overcapacity in some industries and strong constraints such as capital adequacy ratio, excess funds poured into the bond market and money market. The market interest rate thus formed can neither reflect the actual situation of capital supply and demand, nor play an important role in regulating economic leverage. China's commercial banks have a single asset structure, and the main source of profits is still the deposit-loan spread. In this case, the loan impulse always exists, which may lead to credit out of control and investment rebound. In order to withdraw excessive liquidity, the central bank mainly issues bills and repurchase, which makes open market operation a passive tool to hedge foreign exchange holdings, and the independence and initiative of monetary policy are greatly questioned and challenged. Of course, on the contrary, a sharp appreciation of the RMB will make China's balance of payments more serious, leading to a more passive operation of monetary policy. The expected increase of RMB appreciation will have at least two consequences on capital flow: first, attract more international arbitrage and arbitrage capital to flow into China; Second, the willingness of domestic residents to hold foreign currency has declined, and they have converted foreign currency deposits into RMB deposits. The balance of residents' foreign currency savings deposits reached the highest value of $90.8 billion in June 2003, and fell to $65.7 billion by the end of the second quarter of 2006. The impact of RMB appreciation on the banking industry is also obvious, and banks are related to financial security and economic security. Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, once published a report predicting that for every appreciation of RMB 1%, BOC's profit will decrease by 3.3% and its net profit will decrease by 0.6%. The exchange loss of CCB in the first half of 2006 alone reached 2.4 billion yuan, and that of BOC in the first half of 2006 reached 3.5 billion yuan. However, the expectation of RMB appreciation has not changed the bank's asset-liability structure, income structure and profit model. This is because the main business of Chinese banks is limited to China, so the currency structure and income structure of bank assets and liabilities are only fine-tuned. The appreciation of RMB has reduced the foreign currency deposits of domestic banks. Bank of China, which accounts for 49.8% of the domestic foreign currency deposit market, had a domestic foreign currency savings deposit of $365.438+69 billion in the first half of the year, a decrease of $820 million compared with the end of last year. It turns out that many people expect that the appreciation of RMB will bring about the continuous and substantial growth of bank settlement business. However, since 2006, the volume of foreign exchange settlement and sale has decreased compared with the same period in 2005, especially from August to early September 2006, the volume of foreign exchange settlement and sale of many banks decreased by about 65,438+00% year-on-year, on the contrary, the volume of foreign exchange settlement and sale of some banks increased by about 65,438+00% year-on-year. This is because after more than a year of RMB appreciation, many people think it will be a smooth process and gradually adapt. In addition, one of the main reasons is that due to the regulation of the property market, the transaction is sluggish, and the inflow of overseas remittances to purchase houses has decreased. Except for China Bank, the business scope of most listed banks in China is basically domestic, and the proportion of foreign currency assets and liabilities is very small. The RMB assets and liabilities are basically matched with foreign currency assets and liabilities, and the amount of international business, including international settlement, is also very small. For off-balance-sheet business, derivatives are usually used for hedging. From the operational point of view, the direct impact of appreciation is not great. In fact, the impact of RMB appreciation on the banking industry is reflected in the impact on the comprehensive economy, which in turn affects the living environment of banks. Since September last year, the appreciation of RMB has accelerated. China's trade surplus from June 5438 to 10 in 2007 was close to159 billion US dollars, which was as high as 67% compared with the surplus of 9.49 billion US dollars from June 5438 to 10 last year. Faced with the pressure from the United States and Europe, the fluctuation space of exchange rate may expand, which puts forward higher requirements for the risk management level of domestic banks. Using various financial instruments to reduce market risks should become the knowledge of banks. II. Influence of RMB appreciation on enterprises' import and export and its countermeasures There are three main types of influence of RMB appreciation on enterprises in different industries: the first type is industries that hold a large number of assets or liabilities denominated in foreign currencies, such as aviation, electric power, telecommunications and other industries. Appreciation will lead to the depreciation of assets denominated in foreign currencies. As a result, the liabilities denominated in foreign currency will be reduced, thus reducing the corporate debt. The second is the industry that sells products and has different production cost structures. The concrete manifestations are as follows: first, the product price is settled in RMB, and the raw materials are purchased from overseas, such as papermaking, automobile and machinery and equipment industries, and their production costs are reduced due to the appreciation of RMB, thus enhancing the profits of enterprises; Second, the price of products is settled in foreign currency, and the purchase of raw materials from abroad, such as petroleum, petrochemical, textile, steel and other industries, depends on whether the reduction of procurement costs can make up for the losses caused by the reduction of product prices; Third, product prices are settled in foreign currency, and raw materials are purchased from China, such as medicine, household appliances, chemical industry and non-ferrous metal industry, which has the greatest negative impact. Third, industries that benefit indirectly, such as real estate, commercial real estate, airports, ports, railways, highways, electricity, water supply, cable TV, etc. These industries, as non-trade sectors, are denominated in RMB. If the trend of RMB appreciation continues, the influx of foreign capital will push up asset prices. Import and export enterprises must start from various aspects, strengthen hedging ability and actively manage exchange rate risks. Different regions and different types of enterprises avoid exchange rate risks in different ways. Under the guidance of some new policies, measures and hedging tools issued by China's foreign exchange management departments and banks, different products are selected according to the needs of enterprises to form a suitable investment portfolio. The first is to use financial instruments to hedge. At present, exchange rate hedging products mainly include forward foreign exchange settlement and sale business, structured foreign exchange settlement and sale business, selective trading, currency swap and so on. Forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange is the main way to avoid risks in China's financial market at present, but it requires high accuracy in judging the exchange rate trend of enterprises. Using financial market tools to avoid exchange rate risk is a common method to fix foreign exchange costs for enterprises with currency exposure risk in the international market. However, at present, there is a gap between the hedging tools provided by financial institutions in China and the needs of enterprises in terms of product structure, design and charging standards. Financial institutions in China should also adapt to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and introduce more suitable hedging products to corporate customers as soon as possible. Second, avoid exchange rate risk through the choice of contract terms, including signing short-term contracts, signing multi-currency contracts or directly using RMB, locking costs through fixed exchange rate negotiation, and settling accounts in advance or later. When signing a foreign trade contract, enterprises should try to add exchange rate risk clauses to the contract. When exchange rate changes cause losses to the interests of enterprises, new terms will be implemented to ensure the profit space of enterprises. For example, when signing a contract, add a clause about RMB appreciation. If the RMB appreciates to a certain extent during the supply period, the price will be readjusted. The third is to avoid exchange rate risk in the form of trade financing. At present, the main financing methods in China are letter of credit, export draft, packaged loan, foreign exchange bill discount, import draft and international factoring financing. Trade financing can easily solve the problem of enterprise capital turnover. Foreign currency loans can be obtained through trade financing methods such as export bills of exchange and settlement of foreign exchange in real time, which not only meets the cash flow demand of export shipment and foreign exchange collection, but also avoids exchange rate risks. The fourth is to use export credit insurance to avoid risks. Since the establishment of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, thousands of enterprises have enjoyed the convenience of financing under export credit insurance, which directly avoided the loss of exchange rate fluctuation. Banks can sell bank bills in time through the "bill insurance" products of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, and settle foreign exchange in advance to avoid risks. Other tools to avoid exchange rate risks include: adjusting the proportion of imports and exports and increasing the proportion of domestic sales; Adjust import and export countries and regions to expand from a single market to a diversified market; Matching the maturity and currency structure of assets and liabilities; Correct selection of currency, collection and payment of foreign exchange and settlement methods; Raise the price of export products; Switch to non-US dollar currency settlement, etc. Iii. The impact of RMB appreciation on the real estate industry and its countermeasures The reason why the real estate industry and the banking industry are analyzed separately is because the real estate industry is an important industry supporting people's livelihood, and real estate security is directly related to financial security and macroeconomic security. Finance with banking as the main body is the core of modern economy. Due to the instability of world economy and finance and the fragility of China's financial system, it is not excessive to raise China's financial security to the level of national security. In 2006, the national investment in real estate development was 1.9382 billion yuan, up by 2 1.8% year-on-year. The price of commercial housing rose 1 1.04% year-on-year, among which high-grade commercial housing rose 13.36% year-on-year. In the same period, the per capita income of urban residents nationwide was 1 1759 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12. 1%. Since 1998, the average annual sales price of commercial housing in China has increased by 6.5%, which is 5.9 percentage points higher than the average annual increase of consumer price of 0.6%. The above figures clearly show that the current housing prices are still running at a high level, indicating that the previous real estate regulation and control did not achieve the expected results. Since 2004, the government has issued many policies to macro-control the real estate market, whether it is the land and credit control in 2004, or the "National Eight Articles" in 2005 and the 13 real estate control policy jointly issued by nine central ministries and commissions in 2006, including interest rate increase, "National Six Articles" and "restriction of foreign investment", involving housing structure, land management, taxation and so on. The macro-control policies of the real estate market are unprecedented in number, detail and comprehensiveness. But why is the regulation effect not ideal? The author believes that the accelerated appreciation of RMB has had a considerable impact on the regulation of the real estate market. Because RMB is not freely convertible under capital account, a lot of hot money comes in to buy real estate through various channels and means, especially in Beijing and key cities in the southeast coast with unlimited prospects. In this way, the rise in housing prices and the appreciation of the renminbi coexist, and foreign capital benefits. Since last year, foreign capital has acquired a large number of projects and enterprises with real estate background in Shanghai, and some foreigners and overseas Chinese have also purchased a large number of real estate. Judging from the domestic situation, with the increase of the regulation of the real estate market, real estate stocks have soared, which cannot be said to have nothing to do with the appreciation of the RMB. Now, the appreciation of RMB is accelerating, and this behavior is likely to intensify. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the management of foreign capital entering the real estate market in China and make necessary restrictions to prevent some overseas hot money from entering the real estate market in China. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the Ministry of Construction issued regulations in the second half of last year to strengthen foreign exchange management in the real estate market and regulate the purchase of domestic commercial housing by overseas institutions and individuals. The purchase of domestic commercial housing by overseas institutions and individuals is a capital account transaction, but the development of China real estate market is less than ten years. No matter from which angle, China's real estate market should be a consumer goods market, and it is also an international practice to manage it according to the principle of self-use and real need. China's capital account has not been fully opened, so it is reasonable for the government to monitor and restrict the speculation of hot money in the real estate market. We must strictly stop any speculation and profiteering in the real estate market through various policies. However, regulating the real estate market is not blindly suppressing prices. Due to the strong domestic housing demand and the relative shortage of housing supply, the price increase is certain, and the key is the rationality of the increase. In other words, relative to the increase in the income of low-and middle-income residents, the rise in housing prices should make their housing consumption capacity continuously improve.