Short-term unemployment rate is negatively correlated with unexpected inflation rate. ?
But in the long run, the inflation rate will eventually be the same as people expected.
Phillips curve: Phillips curve represents the relationship between economic growth rate and inflation rate, which can be called "output-price" Phillips curve.
This was used by many economists later. This Phillips curve replaces the unemployment rate in the second Phillips curve with the economic growth rate. This substitution is realized by Okun's law.
In 1962, American economist Okun pointed out that there is a reverse relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth rate. In this way, there is a corresponding change relationship between economic growth rate and price increase rate in the same direction.
When studying this relationship, we often don't use economic growth rate directly, but use "deviation of actual economic growth rate from potential economic growth rate" or "deviation of actual output level from potential output level". This "deviation" is manifested in the gap between total social supply and demand and the pressure of rising prices in a certain period of time.
The actual economic growth rate indicates the output growth determined by the total social demand in a certain period, while the potential economic growth rate indicates the total supply of manpower, material resources and financial resources in a certain period and at a certain technical level.
Potential economic growth rate can have two meanings:
One refers to the normal potential economic growth rate, that is, the economic growth rate that can be achieved when all kinds of resources are fully utilized normally;
The other is the maximum potential economic growth rate, that is, the economic growth rate that can be achieved when all kinds of resources are fully utilized to the maximum extent.
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Natural unemployment rate: refers to the unemployment rate under full employment.
Add up the friction unemployment rate and the structural unemployment rate. Due to the changes in population structure, technological progress and people's consumption preferences, there will always be friction unemployment and structural unemployment in society.
In the long run, the unemployment caused by the economic cycle often disappears without a trace, leaving only natural unemployment in society. The definition of "nature" is not clear, and no one can clearly point out what the natural unemployment rate of a society is.
It will change with the changes of population structure, technological progress and industrial upgrading. In Taiwan Province Province, it is generally believed that the natural unemployment rate is between 1.5%-2.5%.
Unemployment rate Baidu encyclopedia