"Grey rhinoceros" has the same concept as the well-known "black swan". "Grey rhinoceros" is an imported product, which has been put forward and applied abroad in recent years.
20 13, 13 In June, American scholar Michelle Walker first put forward the concept of "grey rhinoceros" at the Davos Forum. This bold and novel view immediately aroused great interest in the field of social science research, especially in human decision-making and judgment. 20 15 Michael Jacoby, a well-known professor at London Business School, published a paper, which systematically expounded the trend evolution from "black swan" to "grey rhinoceros" for the first time based on Walker's formulation. After this paper was published abroad, it was translated and introduced. This is the first time that "grey rhinoceros" appeared in China.
Then in 20 16, Walker published a book that subverted people's previous cognition, Grey Rhinoceros: How to Deal with the High Probability Crisis. Walker pointed out that "grey rhinoceros" mainly refers to an obvious, high probability, repeatedly ignored event that may eventually lead to a major crisis. She hit the nail on the head and pointed out that we spend a lot of time and energy on things that will affect our psychology and emotions but have a very low probability of occurrence, thus failing to pay attention to things that have a very high probability of occurrence and should be prevented as soon as possible. If we are looking for a "black swan", then we can't see a "grey rhinoceros".
The "black swan" is terrible, and so is the "grey rhinoceros". Most people selectively ignore and miss the best opportunity, which leads to extremely serious consequences.
Perhaps many people will be curious, why did Michelle Walker choose the concept of "grey rhinoceros"?
"The grey rhinoceros is not a rigorous academic concept, but an apt metaphor for the risk with high probability and strong influence, which means that it failed to stop the disaster that it has the ability and opportunity to stop in time." Dong Ximiao, Executive Dean of hengfeng bank Research Institute, said that the gray rhinoceros is huge and can't be ignored, but it is because it looks stupid that we underestimate its risk and neglect its prevention.
The grey rhinoceros growing on the African savannah is huge, giving people the illusion of being slow and safe, which often ignores the existence of danger-when the grey rhinoceros is provoked and attacks, it will show amazing explosive power, and the probability of stopping it is close to zero, which will eventually lead to devastating disasters.
"The biggest feature of the' grey rhinoceros' incident is its high probability and strong destructive power." Ceng Gang, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the risk of the "grey rhinoceros" incident is actually easy to find, but it is selectively ignored by most people, or recognized or accepted as a normal phenomenon, so that the best opportunity to deal with or control the risk is missed, which may eventually lead to extremely serious consequences.
Ceng Gang pointed out that from foreign experience, the "grey rhinoceros" incident is often extremely destructive, and once it happens, it will have a great negative impact on the economy and society. On the one hand, this is because the risk of "grey rhinoceros" often involves a wide range. It is obviously not an easy task to effectively prevent and coordinate the promotion as a whole. On the other hand, due to the deviation of people's subjective consciousness, it is easy to underestimate the risk, turn a blind eye to the coming disaster, and delay the best time to deal with the crisis.
There are many "black swans" and many "grey rhinos". They are more like "grey rhinoceros" than "black swan".
The proposal of "grey rhinoceros" has brought a strong impact on the concept of "black swan" that people were familiar with. In Walker's view, most crises in our society are not the result of unpredictable small probability events ("black swan"), but the result of the continuous evolution of high probability and high risk events ("grey rhinoceros"). The existence of these risks has long been widely known, but due to the limitations of system or understanding, they have not been actively prevented and dealt with, and finally escalated into a comprehensive systemic crisis.
"Many crisis events are more like' grey rhinoceros' than' black swan'." Hu, a professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, believes that there are similarities and differences between the "grey rhinoceros" incident and the "black swan" incident. In fact, there is no obvious difference between the two, and they can be transformed into each other under certain conditions. "Black Swan" and "Grey Rhino" are like twins, reminding people to be alert to both high-probability risks and low-probability risks, because some unusual events may have a huge impact.
The aftermath of the international financial crisis that swept the world in 2008 is still unsettled. In the eyes of many people, this risk event marked by the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers is an unpredictable "black swan". However, a lot of existing evidence shows that the risks arising from the "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" crisis in the United States have long been frequently warned, but most people ignore these risks.
Since 2000, the real estate market in the United States has been highly prosperous, housing prices have continued to rise, and the scale of housing mortgage loans has been rising, reaching 50% of the total loans in 2007. Since 2004, the Federal Reserve has continuously raised interest rates 17 times, and the target interest rate of federal funds has risen from 1% to 5.25%. At the end of 2006, house prices finally stopped rising and falling, which punctured the housing bubble and triggered the risk of subprime mortgage default. As early as 2004, a report of the Federal Bureau of Investigation reminded people to beware of the large-scale outbreak of mortgage fraud; Since 2007, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements have continuously issued warnings; On June 5438+ 10, 2008, the risk report of Davos Forum pointed out that the expected real estate market recession, tight liquidity and high oil prices actually occurred, which pushed up the risk of economic collapse. There were many prophets in this period. William Poole, president of the Federal Bank of St. Louis, and Richard Baker, a congressman from Louisiana, predicted that there would be big problems in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but it was not until the "Lehman moment" in 2008 that people began to realize the seriousness of the problem.
Similarly, there is Hurricane Katrina. On August 25th, 2005, Hurricane Katrina first landed in Florida, and then landed off the coast of New Orleans along the Gulf Coast on the 29th, causing great damage to New Orleans, which is one of the most serious natural disasters in American history. In June+10 of that year, senior municipal officials had seen a detailed disaster prevention plan, and a seminar on hurricane preparation was held one month before the arrival of the hurricane. However, the government delayed the hurricane prevention work and refused to adopt relevant suggestions. In the end, the hurricane swept away, causing great disaster.
Walker also believes that emergencies like the crash of the American space shuttle Challenger are actually "grey rhinos". Since 1977, the space shuttle manufacturers have found that the rocket propulsion device has design defects. Getting into the water when the outside temperature is low may cause serious risks. On the morning of the launch of the space shuttle, several engineers also issued warnings. But NASA ignored these warnings, which led to tragedy. After-the-fact investigation shows that all losses can be avoided only by adjusting the launch to relatively warm weather.
"Risks are always mentioned, but they are always ignored." Dong Ximiao pointed out that judging from these "grey rhinoceros" incidents abroad, the key is that most people turn a blind eye to the foreseeable crisis and do not take timely action, which eventually leads to a major crisis.
Is there a "grey rhinoceros" around us? Of course, such as global warming. Scientists point out that it is very dangerous if the concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds 350ppm (one in a million), and 20 15 has reached 400ppm. Climate change has caused disasters again and again. Although the harm is obvious, global climate negotiations are still difficult. Recently, the United States has been bent on withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, so that the "grey rhinoceros" incident of climate change is still approaching us.
It is necessary to guard against "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros", so as to achieve early identification, early warning, early detection and early disposal, and keep the bottom line that no systemic financial risks will occur.
"The ultimate goal of studying' grey rhinoceros' is to prevent similar risks." Nonsense, the "grey rhinoceros" incident can be prevented and controlled. These risks should be identified, warned, discovered and dealt with early, so as to turn the future major earthquake into today's minor earthquake and deal with it bit by bit, so as not to cause large systemic risks in the end, otherwise it will cause more serious damage to the economy.
In fact, as different types of risk events, "grey rhinoceros" and "black swan" are different and more related. We can't completely separate these two things. We should discover and prevent the inevitable systemic risk of "grey rhinoceros" from behind the occasional small probability "black swan" incident. To guard against current financial risks, we should guard against both "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros".
"The CPC Central Committee attaches great importance to preventing and resolving financial risks and always demands to keep the bottom line, especially the bottom line where systemic financial risks do not occur." Wang Zhijun, director of the First Economic Bureau of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office, said that both "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros" may impact the bottom line of financial risks, and different ideas and methods should be adopted to deal with them.
"Black Swan" is an unexpected emergency. Wang Zhijun believes that we should keep a clear head and be highly sensitive to such incidents, especially in the current unstable economic operation, and we must enhance our sense of hardship and risk. Strengthen tracking, monitoring, analysis, early warning and prediction, find some trend and incipient problems in economic operation in time, plan ahead, make good plans, nip in the bud, and don't fight unprepared battles.
"For the' grey rhinoceros' incident, because the problem already exists and there are signs, it is necessary to enhance the sense of crisis and adhere to the problem orientation." Wang Zhijun said that the hidden risks of "grey rhinoceros", such as shadow banking, real estate bubble, high leverage of state-owned enterprises, local debts and illegal fund-raising, need to find out the situation, prioritize and influence the situation, highlight the key points and take effective measures to properly solve them.
"The' grey rhinoceros' is a high probability and perceptible risk event and should be the focus of risk prevention and resolution." Ceng Gang believes that to prevent the risk of "grey rhinoceros", we must first face up to the existence of "grey rhinoceros" and comprehensively improve the risk awareness of financial institutions, local governments and state-owned enterprises. At the same time, it is necessary to make overall planning and formulate prevention and resolution plans, especially the "grey rhinoceros" incident naturally has certain public characteristics, and the government should play a leading role in it.
Ceng Gang pointed out that the formation of the "grey rhinoceros" incident is often related to institutional defects or improper incentives and constraints. Under the existing framework, it is difficult to prevent further escalation of risks, and we must resort to system reform and improvement. "At present, continuing to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises and the financial system is the proper meaning of preventing such risks."