The sustainable development of Guangdong's export trade faces energy dilemma.

Source: Xinhuanet Guangdong Channel

Xinhuanet Guangzhou April 10. In 2007, Guangdong's total export volume was 369.246 billion US dollars, and its dependence on foreign trade was 92.2%. Foreign trade is an important driving force for Guangdong's rapid economic growth. However, at present, Guangdong's export trade model, especially the trade structure of energy-intensive products, is highly dependent on energy input, which intensifies the contradiction between Guangdong's economic development and the pressure of resources and environment. According to the analysis of Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the sustainable development of Guangdong's export trade is facing an energy dilemma.

(a) There is a big gap between energy production and consumption, and the risk of importing and importing energy from other provinces is high.

Due to the overall withdrawal of coal production industry and the decline of crude oil output, the total energy production in Guangdong has been decreasing in recent years, which has aggravated the original energy shortage. In 2006, the total output of primary energy in Guangdong was 465,438+603,700 tons of standard coal, down by 8. 1% compared with the previous year, and the total energy consumption was 65,438+976,520 tons of standard coal, with an increase of 1.2%, and the energy gap was as high as 1.56 million. In order to alleviate Guangdong's energy shortage, we imported129.048 million tons of standard coal from other provinces and 5,038,438+0.7 million tons of standard coal from abroad, up by 27.3% and 9.8% respectively over the previous year. Although the energy shortage in Guangdong province can be made up by importing or importing from outside the province, due to the problems of market, price risk and transportation constraints, especially the recent record high energy prices at home and abroad, the external dependence and risks of Guangdong's economic development are gradually increasing, and the cost of export enterprises is obviously increasing, so the energy shortage will become a long-term constraint factor that puzzles Guangdong's foreign economic development.

(2) The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is high, and the development of export trade is highly dependent on energy.

Guangdong's economy is generally in the middle and late stage of industrialization, and industry occupies the main position of economic growth. However, when industrialization has not yet reached a fairly developed level, the rapid development of industrial economy will inevitably be at the expense of consuming a lot of resources, and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption will also increase accordingly. Since 1990s, the elastic coefficient of energy consumption in Guangdong Province has risen rapidly, from 0.35 in 1.990 to 0.7 1 in 2000, reaching 1.22 in 2005, and dropping to 0.77 in 2006 with the effect of energy-saving measures. During the Ninth Five-Year Plan to the Tenth Five-Year Plan, the elasticity coefficient of Guangdong's energy consumption generally showed a rapid upward trend, indicating that Guangdong's economic development has an increasing demand for energy. Foreign trade occupies an important share in Guangdong's total economic output, and the export products are mainly industrial products. In all industries, industrial energy consumption far exceeds other industries. Therefore, the development of Guangdong's export trade is increasingly dependent on energy.

(c) The export products are mainly mechanical and electrical products, which increases the pressure of energy conservation.

The rapid development of Guangdong's industrial economy has promoted the sharp increase of energy consumption. In 2006, Guangdong's industrial energy consumption was131955,600 tons of standard coal, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, which was 3.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the total energy consumption in the whole province. Industrial manufactured goods account for the vast majority of Guangdong's export trade, mainly mechanical and electrical products. In 2007, the export of mechanical and electrical products was $253.252 billion, accounting for 68.6% of the total export. High-tech products with low energy consumption, such as biotechnology, life science and technology, materials technology and photoelectric technology, account for a small share, and the export value is US$ 65.438+028.348 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total export value. The export structure of electromechanical products such as communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, instrumentation and culture, office machinery manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and special equipment manufacturing is highly dependent on energy input, which further increases the pressure on energy conservation.

The ranking of comparative export energy consumption of 10 industries with the highest unit consumption of output value in Guangdong is basically consistent with the unit consumption of output value. In 2005, the sum of the 10 industries with the highest output value and unit consumption only accounted for 8.5% of the total in export delivery value, but it fell to 7.7% in 2006, but the energy consumption accounted for more than 40%, belonging to high energy consumption industries. Except for a few industries, the unit consumption of output value of most industries is above 0.40, which is higher than the level of 0.27 of total industrial output value in 2006. In 10 high energy consumption industries, the total export volume of nonmetallic mineral products, paper and paper products, and textile industries ranks in the top 16, among which the textile industry with large export volume has higher output value unit consumption, and its comparative export energy consumption has rebounded slightly.

(D) Low technical level of export enterprises.

In 2007, foreign-invested enterprises exported US$ 232.222 billion, while private enterprises exported US$ 656.5438+64 billion, accounting for 80.5% of the total exports. Foreign-invested enterprises are mainly Hong Kong-funded enterprises, but Hong Kong-funded enterprises generally have the characteristics of small scale, lack of long-term planning, serious pollution, low technology content and high consumption of energy resources. In addition, many private enterprises need to improve management technology, technological innovation, energy-saving technologies and concepts.

Guangdong's Economic Outlook in 2008

Source: China Net Author: Meng Weihua Release time: March 2008.12.

I. Guangdong's Economic Operation in 2007

Since 2007, Guangdong's national economy has maintained a steady and rapid growth trend. Consumption and investment have become the main forces driving economic growth. The contribution of industry, finance and real estate to economic growth has increased, and the growth rate of import and export has slowed down. Overall, Guangdong's economic operation has the following characteristics.

(A) the process of heavy chemical industry in the industrial structure has been strengthened, and the upgrading of pillar industries has been accelerated.

In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Guangdong was 92,965,438+84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Among them, the added value of heavy industry was 56.51.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points faster than that of light industry. The proportion of light and heavy industries has increased from 43.9∶56. 1 in 2004 to 39.2∶60.8, and the process of heavy industry structure has been further strengthened.

Among the nine pillar industries, the proportion of electronic information, electrical machinery, special equipment and petrochemical industry increased from 67.43% in 2004 to 74.36% in 20071-August, which contributed nearly 40% to the added value of the province's industry. In the same period, the proportion of textile and clothing, food and beverage and building materials decreased from 22.25% to 2/kloc-0. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of added value of automobile and motorcycle, electronic information, electrical machinery and special equipment industries was significantly higher than that of other industries. The structural evolution of the nine pillar industries reflects the acceleration of Guangdong's transformation from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries.

(2) Investment growth picked up, and investment in real estate development was active.

In 2007, new changes took place in the investment structure of fixed assets in Guangdong. First, the growth rate of real estate development investment and manufacturing investment has obviously accelerated, which directly drives the investment in fixed assets of the whole society to rebound. In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 61435.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the same period in 2006. Among them, real estate development investment16164.2 billion yuan, up 37.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate almost doubled compared with the same period in 2006. Second, investment in transportation, warehousing and postal services, as well as information transmission, computers and software industries has fallen sharply.

There are two main reasons for the rapid growth of real estate development investment in Guangdong: First, the tight supply and demand of commercial housing has stimulated the investment impulse of developers. In the first three quarters, the completed area of commercial housing in Guangdong was 22010.3 million square meters, only increasing by10.52% year-on-year, of which residential housing increased by 0. 1. 1%. In the same period, the sales area of commercial housing was 39.9 million square meters, up by 25. 10% year-on-year, of which residential housing increased by 25.5 1%. The sales area far exceeds the completed area, and the tight supply and demand directly led to the year-on-year increase of the sales price of commercial housing and commercial housing 19.84% and 24.32%, which further stimulated the investment impulse of developers. Second, the influx of foreign capital has intensified investment activities. In the first eight months, the real estate development and management industry actually utilized foreign direct investment of US$ 654.38 billion+US$ 763 million, a year-on-year increase of 205.6%. In the same period, the foreign capital in place was 63150,000 yuan, an increase of 98.4%, far higher than other sources of funds.

(3) Social consumption maintained rapid growth and the scope of structural inflation expanded.

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Guangdong was 777.702 billion yuan, up 16 1% year-on-year, running at the highest level in recent years. The consumption at and below the county level increased by 17.4% and 16.4% respectively, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the municipal level and became a new consumption highlight. The growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in the eastern and western wings and mountainous areas is also faster than that in the Pearl River Delta region.

From the perspective of consumption structure, Guangdong's consumption expenditure has changed from basic consumption such as food, clothing, housing and transportation to enjoyment consumption such as entertainment, service, transportation and communication. In the past three years, the structure of urban consumption expenditure has remained basically stable, and the structure of rural consumption expenditure has undergone gratifying changes: the proportion of food expenditure has dropped from 48.26% in 2005 to 46. 19% in the first eight months of 2007, and the proportion of housing expenditure has dropped from 14.3% in 2005 to 5.4/kloc in the first eight months of 2007. The proportion of transportation and communication expenditure increased from11%in 2005 to1%in the first eight months of 2007, and the consumption expenditure of cultural, educational and entertainment supplies, services and clothing also increased to varying degrees. The improvement of rural consumption demand level and the upgrading of consumption structure further narrowed the gap between urban and rural areas.

In the first three quarters, the consumer price in Guangdong increased by 3%, the purchase price of raw materials, fuel and power increased by 2.8%, and the ex-factory price of industrial products increased by 1.24%. From the price of consumer goods to the price of industrial products, from the price of raw materials to the ex-factory price, the price increase trend is gradually emerging. In terms of rising consumer prices, food, meat, poultry eggs and their products are still the main factors that push CPI index to keep rising, but the prices of non-food and services have all increased significantly, and the price comparison effect brought by rising food prices has begun to appear. However, the increase in consumer prices in Guangdong is significantly lower than the national average and only higher than that in Beijing and Shanghai.

(D) The external environment tends to be severe, and the growth rate of foreign trade slows down.

Since 2007, Guangdong's foreign trade has maintained rapid growth, but the growth rate of import and export in a single month has shown a high downward trend. In the first three quarters, the province's total export volume was US$ 264.87 billion, up 24.2% year-on-year, down 4.6 percentage points from the same period in 2006 and 2.9 percentage points behind the national average. The total import volume was 1, 91.45 billion USD, up by 17.7% year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points lower than the same period in 2006, and 0.4 percentage points behind the national level. The trade surplus was 73.42 billion yuan, up 45.0% year-on-year, down 22.2 percentage points from the same period in 2006, and its contribution to the national trade surplus fell to 39.5%.

The characteristics of Guangdong's export-oriented economy determine that its economic development is not only affected by the national foreign trade policy, but also more vulnerable to the impact of external economic entities. Since 2007, the United States and the European Union, as the main export markets of Guangdong, have experienced different degrees of economic growth pullback, especially the recession of the US real estate market and the subprime mortgage crisis have had a great impact on the economy, with the largest pullback. The slowdown of economic growth in major export markets directly led to the slowdown of Guangdong's export growth. In the first eight months of 2007, the growth rate of Guangdong's exports to the United States and the European Union decreased from 18.72% and 42.50% in 2006 to1.93% and 28.76% respectively.

(5) Residents' savings deposits continued to be diverted, and credit supply increased rapidly.

At the end of September, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of Chinese and foreign financial institutions in Guangdong was 4,774.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.62%. In the first three quarters, new deposits were 45 13 billion yuan, an increase of 57 10 billion yuan year-on-year. In the third quarter, it increased by 654.38+028.2 billion yuan, only increasing by 654.38+008 billion yuan year-on-year. There was a year-on-year decrease in September. At the end of September, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of enterprises and institutions was159.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%, and new deposits were 252.8 billion yuan, an increase of158.3 billion yuan. The balance of residents' savings deposits was 2,252.4 billion yuan, up by 1.3% year-on-year, down by 211400 million yuan year-on-year, down by1/600 million yuan compared with the beginning of the year, showing a pattern of "corporate deposits increased substantially and savings deposits continued to be diverted". In the same period, the bank deposits of securities companies and fund companies in the province increased substantially. In the first three quarters, bank deposits of securities companies increased by 2,654.38+0.72 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+0.7/kloc-0.80 billion yuan year-on-year, of which customer transaction settlement fund accounts increased by 654.38+0.95 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+0.53 billion yuan year-on-year. The above phenomenon shows that although the central bank has raised interest rates many times, residents are still optimistic about the expected rate of return in the future capital market. Driven by the wealth effect, residents' willingness to deposit continues to decline.

Since 2007, Guangdong's credit supply has maintained a substantial growth trend, even in the off-season. At the end of September, the balance of local and foreign currency loans of financial institutions in Guangdong was 30.4/kloc-0.50 billion yuan, up 2 1.0%% year-on-year, and new loans were 450.9 billion yuan, up 229.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the province's medium-and long-term RMB loans increased by 2.91300 million yuan, an increase of1200 million yuan year-on-year, and personal housing loans increased by1334 million yuan, an increase of1330 million yuan year-on-year. New loans related to real estate account for 68.76% of all RMB medium and long-term loans, which has become the most important factor driving the growth of medium and long-term loans in Guangdong.

Second, the world economic environment faced by Guangdong's economic operation

Since 2007, the world economic growth has exceeded expectations, but the uncertainty of future development has increased. All kinds of risks contained in the American economy are constantly being stimulated, and the economic trend is obviously weakening. Guangdong is the most prominent province in China's export-oriented economy, and it is most directly and prominently influenced by the American economy. The future changes of the world economy, especially the risk outbreak of the American economy, will have an impact on the future development of Guangdong economy.

(A) the uncertainty of the world economy has increased, and the external risks of Guangdong's economy have increased.

Guangdong's foreign trade accounts for about 30% of the national foreign trade, and external demand has become a very important driving force for Guangdong's rapid economic growth. In the first half of 2007, the contribution of net exports to GDP in the same period was 26%, and the incremental contribution of net export growth to GDP growth in the same period even exceeded 60%. Guangdong's foreign trade is mainly processing trade, and its export plays an important role in Guangdong's foreign trade.

Guangdong's export markets mainly include China, Hongkong, the United States, the European Union and other East Asian countries and regions, and the exports of the top three export markets account for more than 70% of the total exports. Most of Guangdong's exports to China and Hongkong are for re-export to the United States and Europe, so the economic prospects of the United States and Europe have the greatest impact on Guangdong. The rapid economic growth of major export markets in 2006 created a good external environment for Guangdong. The slowdown of economic growth in the United States, the European Union and Japan in 2007 will have a negative impact on Guangdong's economy. However, the acceleration of economic growth in emerging market countries and developing countries has a hedging effect, which can alleviate the impact of economic slowdown in the United States, Europe and Japan to some extent.

(B) The US economy is facing the risk of recession, and Guangdong's export environment tends to be severe.

The United States is the most important export market in Guangdong. Considering entrepot trade, about 40% of Guangdong's export products are exported to the United States. Guangdong's exports are highly dependent on the American market, and American economic fluctuations directly affect Guangdong's macroeconomic trends. Since the second quarter of 2006, the downward trend of American economy is very obvious. Although it rebounded obviously in the second quarter of 2007, the downward adjustment trend in 2007 and 2008 is certain.

There are three main risks in the recession of the American economy: first, the recession trend of the real estate market continues; Second, although the financial market turmoil caused by the subprime mortgage crisis has temporarily subsided, it is still impossible to determine the real impact on the macro economy and judge whether the crisis will come again; Third, it is not clear to what extent the sharp decline in labor productivity is structural and cyclical.

(3) The prices of oil and other raw materials are high, and Guangdong is facing imported inflationary pressure.

Since 2007, international oil prices have shown a trend of continuous fluctuation and upward. Except for the obvious correction of165438+ in early October, March and August, the international oil price continued to rise in fluctuations, and the crude oil price has risen from more than 50 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the year to more than 80 dollars per barrel at present. In particular, every price adjustment is accompanied by a faster and greater rise. According to us energy information administration's forecast, the annual average price of WTI crude oil will reach 68.84 USD/barrel in 2007, and will further rise to 73.50 USD/barrel in 2008. According to their forecast, the oil futures price will decline month by month from September 2007, but it will still run at a high level. In fact, oil futures prices reached new highs of $79.93 and $80.74 per barrel in September and 10 respectively. In fact, as long as the world economy maintains stability and high growth, especially the economic prospects of emerging market countries and developing countries such as China, India and Brazil are promising, the world oil demand, especially the incremental demand, will continue to grow. At least in the short and medium term, oil prices, which are mainly driven by demand, will rise, or the situation of high operation will not change.

According to the International Monetary Fund's commodity price index database, from June to September 2007, international non-fuel commodity prices also rose by 7.4%. Among them, the price of grain increased by 18.2%, the price of beverage increased by 5.7%, the price of agricultural raw materials (including wood, cotton, wool, rubber and leather) decreased by 6.4%, and the price of metals (including copper, aluminum, iron, tin, nickel, zinc, lead and uranium) increased by 4.8%.

Although the price increase of non-fuel primary commodities is not as rapid as in previous years, the price increase in 2007 is a historical high in previous years, which has a great impact on the economies of commodity importing countries, especially some Asian emerging market economies and developing countries. For example, the consumer price index in China rose to 6.5% in August, the highest level in a decade, far higher than the target of 3% set by the central bank. According to the research results of the World Bank, the increase of consumer price index in China is mainly due to the increase of food prices, and to a great extent, it is due to the increase of international food prices. Excluding food prices, the inflation rate in July was only 0.9%. Of course, this is related to the administrative control of some prices by the China government, especially the price control of fuel and some public products. In July 2007, the wholesale price in India increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the consumer price of industrial workers increased by 5.6% year-on-year.

Guangdong is a province that relies heavily on the import of primary products. Imports of important primary products such as grain, edible vegetable oil, refined oil and steel account for 20%~50% of the country, and the prices of these important primary products continued to rise rapidly in 2007. The rising prices of primary products, especially food, have brought imported inflationary pressure to Guangdong. In the first three quarters of 2007, consumer prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year, and by 5.4% year-on-year in September. Although inflation in Guangdong is still at a low level compared with the whole country, the realistic pressure of high international primary products makes us not optimistic about the future price trend.

Third, the overall economic trend of Guangdong in 2008.

In the first three quarters, Guangdong's economy maintained healthy, rapid and stable growth, and its endogenous power was significantly enhanced, which is expected to maintain a high growth level in a long period of time. It is estimated that the annual GDP will exceed 3 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.2%. Combined with the "Guangdong Macroeconomic Monitoring and Forecasting Information System", the overall economic trend in 2008 is calculated as follows.

(A) the analysis and judgment of economic prosperity

According to the analysis of "Guangdong Comprehensive Economic Prosperity Index", in 2007, the overall economic prosperity of Guangdong showed a gradual upward trend, and the prosperity remained in the green light range. From the trend of main monitoring indicators, the import and export operation has slowed down and the economy has turned from hot to normal. The operation of industrial and port cargo throughput accelerated. Investment growth turned from low to normal, prices maintained a moderate rise, electricity consumption and consumption increased steadily, and the economy remained in the green light zone.

At present, Guangdong's overall economic operation is in the middle of the cycle, and the leading indicator electricity consumption operation remains stable. According to the law of economic fluctuation cycle, if there is no big change in the external environment, it is more likely that the economic operation will remain stable and upward in 2008.

(2) Comprehensive forecast in 2008

Although the American economy has slowed down, the overall world economic outlook is still good, and the domestic macroeconomic outlook is still good. Guangdong's consumption, investment and exports are expected to maintain steady growth. Due to the adjustment of financial and real estate policies, the growth rate of the tertiary industry in Guangdong may slow down, but the industry is less dependent on the financial and real estate industries, and the secondary industry will maintain a steady and rapid growth momentum. Therefore, Guangdong's economy is expected to continue to develop along the inherent inertia and maintain a relatively fast growth rate. Combined with the time series forecasting model and related calculations and adjustments, Guangdong's GDP will exceed 3.7 trillion yuan in 2008, an increase of about 14.0%.

In terms of consumption, the stable macroeconomic environment, the increasing income of urban and rural residents and the improvement of urbanization level have provided a solid foundation for the sustained and rapid growth of consumer demand. It is predicted that in 2008, Guangdong's consumption will maintain a steady development momentum, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of about 16.8%. Prices kept rising moderately, with an increase of around 4%.

In terms of investment, a series of macro-control measures will have a certain inhibitory effect on real estate investment, and other investment demand will remain relatively strong. It is estimated that the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society will slow down in 2008, with an increase rate of about 16.0%.

On the export side, the adjustment effect of RMB appreciation and export tax rebate policy will gradually show its influence on Guangdong's exports in 2008. It is estimated that in 2008, Guangdong's export will exceed US$ 420 billion, and the growth rate will drop to about 18%. Guangdong is dominated by processing trade, which determines that imports are largely affected by exports. It is predicted that the growth rate of Guangdong's imports will also slow down in 2008, with the total import volume approaching 3 1000 billion yuan, an increase of about 16%.

refer to

IMF, World Economic Outlook: Globalization and Inequality, 2007 10.

Oxford Economic Research Institute, World Economic Outlook, 2007 10.

Fall 2006, Oxford Economic Research Institute: Will the collapse of American housing prices derail the global economy?

World Bank, China Economic Quarterly, September 2007.

(Author: Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission Information Center Senior Economist. Main research fields: macroeconomics and quantitative economy; Qin Donghai, Information Center of Guangdong Development and Reform Commission, Doctor of Economics. Main research areas: international finance and macroeconomics; Wei Yali, Information Center of Guangdong Development and Reform Commission, Master of Finance. )

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