Model essay on technical economics 1: Technical and economic analysis of photovoltaic power generation Abstract: The sun is a very important renewable energy source. In the context of the current world energy and environmental crisis, the application value of solar energy is increasingly prominent. As an important technology of solar energy application, the development prospect of photovoltaic power generation is very considerable, and the photovoltaic industry in China is facing unprecedented opportunities and choices. This paper will combine the theory and method of technical economics to discuss the photovoltaic industry in China from four different angles: technology, enterprise, industry and country, so as to promote the photovoltaic industry in China to advance steadily in a good and fast direction.
Keywords: photovoltaic power generation; Economic analysis; Development forecast
Solar energy is the basic source of energy for the earth. Therefore, how to make better use of sunlight to generate electricity is a thorny problem that human beings have been facing. Solar energy is a clean and safe energy source, with abundant resources and long service life, which does not require frequent maintenance like other energy sources. Based on these characteristics that other energy sources do not have, photovoltaic energy is considered to be the most valuable energy source in 2 1 century. Since 1950s, the application of solar energy has developed from solar cells to many different fields, such as solar photovoltaic integrated buildings. Throughout the world photovoltaic industry, it has also experienced half a century of development. After entering 2 1 century, the photovoltaic industry in China has gradually entered a period of rapid development. Therefore, on the basis of market analysis, this paper will discuss technical economy from four aspects: technology, enterprise industry and country.
First, the advantages of photovoltaic industry
Photovoltaic industry is a green energy, so it is regarded as a strategic sunrise industry. Countries attach great importance to photovoltaic power generation and give strong support for the following reasons:
1. The Kyoto Protocol puts pressure on countries, forcing governments to actively develop all kinds of clean energy, including solar energy, which is conducive to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
2. The Middle East is the main oil producing area in the world, so the political trend in the Middle East has been in a state of tension. In order to ensure a stable energy supply, governments must vigorously develop domestic energy, including solar energy.
3. Mineral energy such as oil and coal is gradually exhausted, so governments have to actively develop renewable energy, including solar energy, to make energy supply for a long time. Based on the above reasons, in the last decade of last century, the national photovoltaic power generation industry grew at a high speed of 20% per year. In the thirty years after the new millennium, the global photovoltaic power generation industry is growing at a high speed of 30% every year. Photovoltaic energy is a unique potential energy in renewable energy, and its importance and strategy are increasingly prominent. Countries around the world have actively introduced relevant policies and laws to encourage the photovoltaic industry. Since 1999, countries all over the world, especially the United States, Japan, Germany and other western developed countries, have successively launched large-scale national photovoltaic development plans and solar roof plans, which have promoted the development of the world photovoltaic industry to a certain extent, and the world photovoltaic industry has developed faster than the IT industry. As a renewable clean energy, photovoltaic power generation will become the most important basic energy in the first half of 2 1 century.
Second, the cost analysis of photovoltaic power generation
(A) photovoltaic power generation costs and influencing factors
The cost of photovoltaic power generation directly determines whether it can develop rapidly on a large scale and its position in energy supply. The cost of photovoltaic power generation is mainly affected by two factors: the total cost of photovoltaic power generation and the total power generation. The cost of photovoltaic power generation is mainly affected by the initial investment, while factors such as operation and maintenance fees and taxes have little influence on the power generation cost of the system. 1. Initial investment. The initial investment of photovoltaic power plant mainly includes photovoltaic modules, cables, power distribution equipment, grid-connected inverters and other expenses. Among them, the investment cost of photovoltaic modules accounts for more than half of the initial investment. 2. generate electricity. The power generation of photovoltaic power generation system is affected by two factors: solar energy resources and solar power generation efficiency. At the same time, it is also affected by factors such as operation mode and line loss. Therefore, most photovoltaic power generation systems combined with buildings in China are installed in the eastern coastal areas. 3. Unit electricity fee. (Also called electricity cost)
(2) Cost analysis of various photovoltaic power generation systems.
China's photovoltaic power generation market did not start early, mainly for investment subsidies, franchise bidding and other projects. Some technical and economic analysis can't reflect the cost correctly. This paper mainly analyzes the data of some typical power stations.
1. The unit investment cost of concentrated photovoltaic power station is higher than that of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power station, and the electricity cost of concentrated photovoltaic power station is lower than that of thin-film photovoltaic power station, but it is still higher than that of large-scale ground crystalline silicon photovoltaic power station.
2. The unit cost of thin film photovoltaic power station is lower than that of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power station, but the efficiency is also low, and the power consumption cost is higher than that of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power station.
(C) the cost trend of photovoltaic power generation system
The cost of photovoltaic system includes solar cell module, power control, array system balance and indirect cost. Among them, the balance of array system includes the frame and bracket of supporting components, electric wires, foundation civil engineering and land use fees. Power control is divided into two aspects, inverter and electrical control system. The introduction fee includes management fee, design fee, interest during the construction period, unforeseen fee, freight and so on. At present, a major factor restricting the large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation is high cost. With the improvement of battery efficiency, the reduction of module cost and the extension of life, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is close to the level of parity internet access, so photovoltaic power generation is very competitive. Some international organizations have predicted the system cost of photovoltaic power generation in the future: at present, the initial investment cost of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation units in China is about 15/W, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is 3GW. According to the current development trend of power generation industry in China, the annual investment cost will decrease by 10% on the premise of technology upgrading and equipment localization. According to renewable energy? Twelfth Five-Year Plan? Planning, by the end of 20 15, the installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation in China has reached 14GW. It is estimated that the installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation will reach 40GW by the end of 2020 and 200GW by the end of 2030. According to the calculation results, the unit investment cost of photovoltaic power generation in China is about11yuan /W in 2020, and will drop to 4 yuan /W in 2030. The cost reduction of solar cells depends not only on technological progress, but also on large-scale production, which reduces the cost by one-half to one-third to some extent. Moreover, the construction cost required for system balance has also dropped significantly. At present, microgrid power generation technology is still in the stage of in-depth research. Although the cost is still high, with the continuous innovation and progress of technology, the cost will gradually decrease, and the future photovoltaic power generation technology has great prospects. Before 2020, the global photovoltaic power generation market is mainly concentrated in the European Union, accounting for about 40%. From 2065438+00 to 2020, the status of photovoltaic power generation in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries has gradually improved. After 2020, the emerging markets of photovoltaic power generation are mainly China, the United States, Brazil and other countries, and photovoltaic power generation technology is an important renewable energy power generation technology.
Third, the development prospect analysis of photovoltaic power generation
1. Various photovoltaic cell technologies are competing to develop. The first generation of crystalline silicon batteries are mainly used in universities, with low price, wide use and market dominance. The second generation thin film battery has low cost, less energy consumption and good development prospect. The third generation of new solar cells is efficient but expensive, and it is still in the exploration stage.
2. The development direction of photovoltaic microgrid power generation technology is high cost and low stability. Photovoltaic microgrid takes photovoltaic power generation as the main power supply, which can cooperate with other energy storage devices to directly supply power around users' loads. A typical microgrid can run off the main grid or be connected to the main grid, which can not only reduce the distribution investment, but also greatly reduce the impact of intermittent solar energy on users, and is more suitable for remote mountainous areas with high cost and users with high power supply reliability.
Four. Suggestions on Developing Photovoltaic Industry
To sum up, it is urgent to develop photovoltaic industry in China. The healthy and stable development of photovoltaic industry in China is inseparable from the macro-control of national industrial policies. The promulgation and implementation of national policies will greatly promote the development of photovoltaic industry in China.
1. The government should take the lead, set up special funds for the development of photovoltaic industry, formulate corresponding preferential policies in terms of funds, electricity prices and taxes, and give strong support.
2. Technically, we should not only independently research and develop, but also learn to introduce technology. We can also establish and improve an innovative technology system with domestic research and public relations.
3. We should take the government as the leading factor, make diversified investments, establish a complete industrial chain, participate in various ways, take risks, and carry out photovoltaic technology normalization construction projects at a higher level.
4. Efforts should be made to cultivate the domestic photovoltaic market and formulate a set of specific implementation rules for sharing on-grid tariffs. 5. Make a reasonable plan for the development of photovoltaic industry. We should speed up the formulation of industry standards and enhance the competitiveness of photovoltaic industry in the future industry.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) abstract
In a word, solar photovoltaic power generation is a kind of green renewable energy, and the development prospect of photovoltaic power generation technology is very considerable. From 2030 to 2050, patronizing energy and conventional energy will be truly competitive in price, so it will surely become a very important part of China's multi-energy complementary energy. China's photovoltaic industry needs to make continuous efforts in market standardization, equipment localization, technical support upgrading and industrial chain development. Only in this way can China's solar photovoltaic industry rank among the top in the world.
Author: Du Juan Unit: Yellow River Hydropower Photovoltaic Industry Technology Co., Ltd.
References:
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Gu, people. Technical and economic analysis and comprehensive evaluation of photovoltaic power generation project in landscape belt [D]. North China Electric Power University (Baoding), 20 13.
Model of Technical Economics II: Thinking on the Paradigm and Path of Low-carbon Economy and Technical Economy Abstract: Since the 20th century, with the rapid development of social economy, the contradiction between man and nature has intensified. Therefore, finding a low-carbon economic development model that can make social economy and natural environment live in harmony has become a problem that all countries attach great importance to, which is also an important factor to promote the development of low-carbon economic models in different countries. In this paper, the technical paradigm and development path of low-carbon economy development are elaborated in detail, with a view to providing reference for China's economic development.
Keywords: low-carbon economy; technical innovation
Under the current global warming situation, low-carbon economic development mode has become the main mode of economic development in various countries, thus promoting the harmonious relationship between man and nature, which is not only the protection of the natural environment, but also the protection of human health. Low-carbon environment not only brings low-pollution production, but also reduces emissions, preventing a large number of substances polluting the environment from being discharged into water, land and atmosphere, further being absorbed by human body, leading to the breeding of a large number of diseases. Therefore, we should strengthen the development of low-carbon economy and think deeply about the paradigm and development path of technical economy.
First, low-carbon economy and low-carbon technology
Low-carbon economy has become a new economic development model in today's society. The core content of this development model is mainly to innovate and formulate the system on the basis of the current market-related mechanism. In this way, the development mode of low-carbon economy can continuously improve the technical efficiency and reduce the use of resources, and at the same time study the corresponding technologies such as renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, so that most industrial production will move towards low-emission and low-energy production modes. The development mode of low-carbon economy with low emission and low energy efficiency will surely develop with the development of new energy-saving technologies, efficiency-enhancing technologies and emission-reducing technologies. Only driven by a large number of new technologies and guided by innovative low-carbon technologies can we continuously promote the development of low-carbon economic model.
Second, the current status of low-carbon technology development in China
At present, China enterprises have made remarkable success in the research and development of low-carbon technologies, and some low-carbon products have even reached the advanced level in the middle world, the most prominent of which is the new energy industry. For example, as of 20 15, 82 ultra-supercritical units have been operated in China, which is also in a leading position in the world. In addition, worldwide, the growth of wind turbines in China is also in a leading position. In 20 13 years, the growth of wind turbines has been higher than160,000 kilowatts; In 20 15 years, the installed capacity of wind power has exceeded10 million kilowatts, increasing by14.74 million kilowatts, with a growth rate of 25%. In addition, China is the country that exports the most photovoltaic modules in the world, and nearly 40% of the global photovoltaic products come from China. In addition, China is the world's largest producer and consumer of solar water heaters, accounting for 70% of the world's total output, and about 95% of the core technologies of solar water heaters are mastered by China Company; China enterprises produced the world's first pure electric vehicle that can travel 400 kilometers on a single charge and can accommodate five passengers; China leads the world in the efficiency of cement waste heat power generation, and began to export technology and equipment to foreign countries. The Roadmap for the Development of Energy Science and Technology from China to 2050 compiled by the Energy Strategy Research Group of China Academy of Sciences points out that the most important development fields of China's low-carbon economy and new energy industry in the near future are clean coal technology, new energy vehicles, smart grid and new energy scale power generation. China has made great achievements in low-carbon field, but the development of low-carbon technology in China is still worrying. Because our technology is still low-end.
1. Although wind power generation technology is the fastest developing new energy industry in China, it has the whole machine production capacity of fans below 1.5MW, but the production technical difficulties of some core components, such as bearings, converters, control systems and gearboxes, have not been solved for a long time.
2. The grid connection of renewable energy has always been a major technical problem, the important reason of which is the low level of smart grid construction in China, and there is no advanced grid regulation and dispatching technology. 3. In the development of clean coal technology, IGCC-related projects have just started, and key parts cannot be made in China. In China, the investment of conventional thermal power plants is about 5,000 yuan per kilowatt, while that of IGCC demonstration power plants is as high as 0/10,000 yuan per kilowatt, which is more than 1 times higher than that of conventional thermal power plants.
Third, China low-carbon economic and technological innovation path choice
China is a country with a large population, which ranks first in the world. However, the speed of economic development cannot meet the population demand, and the ecological environment is fragile, so it is vulnerable to climate change. At present, China is still in a period of rapid economic development, facing the simultaneous development of important work at different levels, such as narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, vigorously developing the economy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which makes it more difficult for China to promote the development model of low-carbon economy. It is precisely because of China's special national conditions that we can't copy foreign low-carbon economic development models, but should learn the essence that can be used by China from foreign low-carbon economic development models and learn from China's unique low-carbon economic development path.
1. Provide policy and financial support for low-carbon technology research and development. Constantly improve China's low-carbon technology development policies, strengthen relevant policies and systems, and give a lot of financial support to enterprises with low-carbon economic development model in China. (1) Some new energy technologies have been extremely difficult to overcome all over the world, and it will be extremely difficult to rely solely on enterprise research and development. Therefore, on the one hand, the government must help enterprises to strengthen cooperation and exchanges with international advanced energy technologies, thus laying a solid foundation for the rapid development of new energy technologies in China. (2) The state should strengthen low-carbon construction in public infrastructure construction, such as smart grid. A large number of low-carbon technologies are applied to infrastructure construction, which can save resources and funds for the country and reduce emissions. (3) The state should help to carry out technological research in cutting-edge fields, so that China's low-carbon technologies can make continuous progress, not only quickly connect with the international cutting-edge technologies, but also strive to surpass the international average level in the future, such as related core technologies for wind turbines. ④ Strictly formulate the corresponding low-carbon technology system and strategic planning to guide the correct development of low-carbon technology and avoid blind development. At the same time, the development direction of low-carbon technology should be planned by the state; ⑤ The state has set up a corresponding low-carbon economic development support fund to help China enterprises develop low-carbon technologies.
2. From the perspective of enterprise development, enterprises need to innovate in low-carbon technology, otherwise, under the general trend of low-carbon economic development, enterprises will lose their market competitiveness. First of all, enterprises should change their marketing concepts and traditional profit models. While setting short-term goals, they also need to set long-term goals. The general direction should be to develop low-carbon technologies, so that enterprises can obtain higher profits through the application of low-carbon technologies, and truly realize the balance between development mode and technology. Secondly, enterprises need to strengthen communication and close cooperation with governments, institutions and other enterprises in order to spread the risks that may occur in the process of low-carbon technology research and development. Because the low-carbon technology itself is not mature, many low-carbon technologies are still in the conceptual stage, and enterprises need to bear enormous human and material pressure in the R&D process. If the enterprise goes it alone, the possibility of success is obviously not high, and it needs cooperation with the government and scientific research institutions to avoid risks. Finally, advanced low-carbon technologies can be introduced. Now technological development has gradually realized globalization. China enterprises can acquire advanced low-carbon technologies through technology trade, and then digest and absorb them according to China's national conditions. At the same time, the state should also do a good job in patent property protection.
3. For scientific research institutions, we should pay close attention to the policies and measures issued by the state, and on this basis, we need to cooperate with enterprises to obtain R&D funds. The research and development of low-carbon technology in scientific research institutions should focus on the following aspects: improving the utilization rate of coal resources; Nuclear power technology, transmission and distribution technology and renewable resources development and utilization technology. Through the vigorous research and development of these technologies, we can really promote the development of low-carbon technologies in China and integrate them into all walks of life. In addition, scientific research institutions also need to do a very important job, that is, to bring low-carbon technologies that have been successfully developed to the market and truly transform technologies into productive forces.
Four. conclusion
To sum up, low-carbon technology has become the mainstream of world production technology development, which is also the only way for production development. Therefore, under the current development trend of low-carbon economy, China should speed up the pace of international integration, expand the coverage of low-carbon production technology in China's production industry, and apply more technologies to production, so as to promote the development of low-carbon economy on the road of sustainable development.
Author: Hou Xueyan Unit: Ye Wei Community, Honggang District, Daqing City.
References:
[1] Wang Guodong, Yang Zhi. Low carbon economy [M]. Petroleum Industry Press, 20 10.
[2] Huang Dong. Low-carbon technology innovation and policy support [J]. China Science and Technology Forum.2010 (02).