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International logistics develops with the development of international trade, and at the same time, international logistics has become an important factor affecting and restricting the further development of international trade. The development of international logistics has greatly improved the environment of international trade and provided various convenient conditions for international trade. The rapid growth of world trade is inseparable from the development of international logistics. The further development of international trade needs the support of international logistics. If the development of international logistics cannot keep up with the development of international trade, it will greatly hinder the in-depth development of international trade.
This paper mainly studies the relationship between international trade and international logistics development, and makes a further empirical analysis on the relationship between international trade and international logistics based on the data of three countries and regions with the most active trade activities and the most advanced logistics level in the world: North America, Japan and Europe.
Theoretical analysis of the relationship between international trade and international logistics
(A) International trade has promoted the emergence and development of international logistics
The so-called international logistics is an extension and further expansion of domestic logistics, a "circulation of goods" that crosses national boundaries and expands the scope of circulation, and an international trade activity that realizes the physical movement of goods between two or more countries (or regions). 1 From this concept, we can see that international logistics is essentially a part of international trade activities and serves international trade activities. Therefore, the premise of international logistics is the existence of international trade. If there is no international trade, there is no international flow of goods, so there is no need for international logistics.
1, international trade promotes the emergence of international logistics.
International trade is the premise of international logistics, and at the same time, international logistics is also a necessary condition to realize international trade. Without the support of international logistics, goods cannot flow between countries and international trade cannot be completed. Therefore, international trade will inevitably promote the emergence of international logistics. With the development of international trade, the demand for specialization and integration of international logistics services is strengthened, which makes international logistics develop from the early physical movement of goods from suppliers in one country to demanders in another country to an integrated system integrating basic functions such as purchasing, packaging, transportation, storage, loading and unloading, distribution processing, distribution and information processing. It can be said that international trade has produced international logistics and promoted its development to modern international logistics.
2. The development of international trade promotes the progress of international logistics technology.
Logistics technology refers to the theories and methods of natural science and social science adopted in logistics activities, as well as the general name of facilities, equipment, devices and processes. The development of international trade puts forward higher requirements for enterprises and society in logistics forecasting management and other technical aspects, and is also one of the main driving forces to promote the development of logistics technology. With the development of international trade, countries and enterprises in the world have launched fierce competition in the world market. Although quality is becoming more and more important in the eyes of consumers, consumers are not only concerned about price, but price is still an important factor to win. The development of international trade requires reducing costs from all aspects: raw material price, order cost, transportation price, inventory cost and so on. This poses new challenges and requirements to all aspects of international logistics. Driven by international trade, international logistics has made great innovation and development in theory and technology.
3. The development of international trade constantly puts forward new requirements for international logistics.
With the development of global economy and the improvement of human demand, on the one hand, national trade has developed greatly, on the other hand, the trade volume has increased rapidly, on the other hand, the types of tradable goods have been extremely rich; On the other hand, the international trade structure has undergone tremendous changes, and traditional primary products, raw materials and other trade varieties are gradually giving way to high value-added and precision-processed products. The change and development of international trade put forward new requirements for the quality, efficiency and safety of international logistics.
4. The influence of international trade on the development trend of international logistics.
With the development of international trade to the buyer's market, many traders adopt diversified and small-scale trade methods to meet the increasingly refined and personalized product needs of consumers, so the demand for high-frequency and small-batch distribution also arises. In economically developed countries and regions such as the United States, Japan and Europe, these professional logistics services have formed a scale and have broad development prospects. With the change of the management direction of international traders, the specialization and intensification of logistics management, electronic logistics and green logistics came into being.
In a word, the development of international trade will certainly promote international logistics to make new progress and breakthroughs in all aspects. In today's world, the links between countries are getting closer and closer, and the global trade volume is also rising, which will certainly provide greater development space for international logistics and provide greater impetus for its development.
(2) An efficient international logistics system to ensure the sustainable development of international trade.
International trade led to the birth of international logistics. However, from the day it was born, international logistics began its own independent development process and continued to grow and develop. Moreover, the continuous progress and development of international logistics has also played a far-reaching role in promoting the development of international trade.
In a large number of cross-border trade, the increase of international logistics brought by the transnational transfer of goods can not be ignored. The volume of trade will inevitably bring more logistics, which requires international logistics to facilitate the transfer of goods in all aspects such as cargo transportation, loading and unloading, warehousing and information transmission. Modern logistics uses scientific and technological means to feed back information quickly and accurately, adopts the optimal commodity circulation channels, produces products according to consumers' needs, and delivers them to consumers quickly, which improves service quality, stimulates consumer demand and accelerates the response speed of enterprises to the market. Enterprises connected in the supply chain have realized resource sharing, greatly shortened the circulation cycle of products and accelerated the speed of logistics distribution. The integration of enterprise's logistics channels, logistics functions, logistics links and manufacturing links makes logistics services expanded and serialized. Through standardized operation, uncontrollable risks such as delayed delivery, untimely delivery or damage and loss of goods in the trade process are greatly reduced, thus facilitating the conclusion of trade between enterprises in various countries. The inefficient logistics system will also become the bottleneck of international trade development, and the benefits brought by engaging in international trade will be offset by huge circulation costs.
Generally speaking, the functional elements of logistics system include transportation, storage, packaging, loading and unloading, distribution and processing, distribution, logistics information and so on. All the elements give full play to their respective functions, so as to realize the purpose of logistics system reasonably and effectively.
In the international transit of goods, the requirements for logistics functions are higher. Taking transportation as an example, compared with domestic transportation, international transportation involves many links, greater risks, long routes, wide geographical areas and more complicated situations. International transportation is mainly the choice of transportation modes such as sea transportation, land transportation, air transportation, pipeline and multimodal transportation, the determination of reasonable transportation routes and the effective management of transportation activities. In the whole transportation process, we use many modes of transportation, change to different modes of transportation, go through many loading and unloading in the middle, pass through different countries and regions, and deal with shippers, insurance companies, banks, customs and various intermediaries in various countries. Different countries have different political, legal, financial and monetary systems, and there are many variables. If a link goes wrong, it will affect the efficiency of the whole logistics. Therefore, in order to meet the requirements of international trade for transportation, we must give full play to the role of transportation in the whole international logistics system and achieve the goal of safety, rapidity, accuracy, economy and convenience.
With the intensification of global market competition, many products have completed the transformation from seller's market to buyer's market. The focus of traders' competition is how to meet the diversified and personalized needs of customers better and faster. Products and services in international trade tend to be diversified and customized. The production of commercial standardized parts and components is to achieve economies of scale. Traders know the specific requirements of customers in the international market, combine parts and components in various ways through the distribution and processing function of logistics to form personalized products that meet customer requirements, and then deliver the products to consumers through packaging, transportation and distribution, thus achieving "door-to-door" service.
Efficient logistics system has provided favorable support for the continuous development of international trade, improved the interests of countries involved in trade, and turned more nontradable goods into tradable goods.
In order to achieve the lowest cost, many enterprises purchase raw materials and spare parts from countries and regions with the lowest cost in the world, and at the same time sell finished products all over the world. The purchase and sales of multinational enterprises account for an increasing proportion in international trade. According to statistics, multinational companies control two-thirds of the world's international trade. At present, the trend of multi-variety and small batch production is gradually strengthened, the product life cycle is shortened day by day, and the industry competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Enterprises cannot go it alone. Only through the participation of suppliers, traders, retailers, agents and other partners, can we dynamically improve products and constantly tap new demands of customers, which requires the formation of an efficient global supply chain system and the continuous integration of global resources. Enterprises can rely on a highly flexible and fast-responding logistics and supply chain system to reorganize the world in an all-round way, further optimize the allocation of factors, locate and lay out production, and then maximize trade benefits.
In the global supply chain management, the use of e-commerce technology to optimize supply chain management, first complete the business process integration within the enterprise, and then extend to the partners outside the enterprise, so as to realize the comprehensive integration of production, procurement, inventory, sales, finance and human resource management, maximize the efficiency of logistics, information flow and capital flow, and turn the ideal supply chain operation into reality. All logistics management in the supply chain can be coordinated through information communication, responsibility distribution and mutual cooperation among all members of the supply chain, which can reduce the uncertainty of each member in the supply chain and reduce the operating cost of each member. Enterprises can use less equipment to complete inventory turnover, reduce capital occupation and management costs, thus reducing costs and improving the efficiency of transportation, packaging, labeling and document processing.
It can be seen that international logistics has also become an important factor affecting and restricting the further development of international trade. The development of international logistics has greatly improved the environment of international trade and provided various convenient conditions for international trade. The rapid growth of world trade is inseparable from the development of international logistics.
(C) the relationship between international trade and international logistics
From the above analysis, we can see that international trade and international logistics complement and promote each other. The further development of international trade needs the support of international logistics. If the development of international logistics cannot keep up with the development of international trade, it will greatly hinder the in-depth development of international trade. Therefore, in addition to the traditional methods of promoting international trade such as policy support and global cooperation, we must vigorously develop international logistics to meet the needs of international trade development and promote the lasting development of international trade.
Second, the empirical analysis of the relationship between international trade and international logistics
In order to reveal the causal relationship between international trade and international logistics more accurately, the second part will make an empirical analysis of the causal relationship between international trade and international logistics by using time series data and Granger causality test.
1, North America
The import and export volume used below is based on the data of International Finance Yearbook 1983-2004 compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the data of maritime volume is collected from Review of Maritime Transport 1983-2004 compiled by UNCTAD. The relationship between the total import and export volume of North America and the seaborne volume of trade goods is shown in Figure 2 below.
Eviews is used to analyze the data characteristics of total import and export volume and maritime volume. The analysis results show that the volume of foreign trade goods transported by sea T and the total import and export volume E are all one-order, and there is a co-integration relationship between them. (See Appendix for specific inspection process) Granger causality test results are as follows:
At the significant level of 5%, the statistical value of f is greater than its critical value, so the null hypothesis can be rejected. That is to say, the conclusion of Granger causality test confirms that we are 95% sure that there is a feedback causality between the maritime volume of foreign trade goods and the total import and export volume.
2. Japan
The relationship between Japan's total import and export volume and the maritime volume of trade goods is shown in Figure 2.
Eviews is used to analyze the data characteristics of total import and export volume and maritime volume. The analysis results show that the volume of foreign trade goods transported by sea T and the total import and export volume E are all one-order, and there is a co-integration relationship between them. Granger causality test results are as follows:
At the significant level of 5%, the statistical value of f is greater than its critical value, so the null hypothesis can be rejected. That is to say, the conclusion of Granger causality test confirms that we are 95% sure that there is a feedback causality between the maritime volume of foreign trade goods and the total import and export volume.
3. Europe
The relationship between the total import and export volume in Europe and the maritime volume of trade goods is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3: foreign trade cargo transportation volume t and total import and export volume e
Eviews is used to analyze the data characteristics of total import and export volume and maritime volume. The analysis results show that the sea volume T and the total import and export volume E of foreign trade goods are stationary series, and there is a premise of Granger causality test between them. (See Appendix for specific inspection process) Granger causality test results are as follows:
At the significance level of 5%, if the statistical value of f is greater than its critical value, the zero hypothesis, namely Granger causality test, can be rejected.