This is a very interesting question. Generally speaking, history cannot be assumed, but as far as the Sino-Japanese War is concerned, the defeat of the Qing Dynasty is very accidental. It is only because of the superposition of various factors that the war that could have been won turned into a fiasco. For example, the disclosure of the Qing military code, the constraints of Weng Tonghe, Li Bingheng and others, the quick success of Emperor Jiro Guangxu, and, of course, the rash corruption of Li Hongzhang and Huai generals. This is the so-called national luck. What would happen if the Qing Dynasty won? Let's imagine along the track of Westernization Movement before Qing Dynasty:

1. 1895. After the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, the Japanese navy was wiped out, the army returned to the mainland, and the Qing army occupied the whole Korean peninsula. The Qing Dynasty signed a treaty with Japan;

Japan recognized Korea as a vassal state of the Qing Dynasty.

(2) The Ryukyu Islands were ceded to the Qing Dynasty.

(3) Compensation to the Qing Dynasty silver 65438+ 200 million.

2. 1896. Russia invaded Hokkaido, Japan. Under the coordination of the Qing Dynasty, Russia withdrew at the end of the year, but Japan paid 6.5438+million taels of silver. In order to thank the coordination of the Qing dynasty, the Qing dynasty and Japan signed an alliance treaty to boycott Russia.

3. 1897.

(1) The Qing Dynasty encouraged the Han people to settle in the northeast, emigrate to the frontier, and establish three northeastern provinces.

In order to resist the influence of the Qing Dynasty, North Korea moved closer to Russia. The Qing army staged a coup in North Korea, abolished the king and established a province in North Korea.

(3) Due to the North Korea issue, the relationship between the Qing Dynasty and Russia was tense.

4. 1898.

(1) the Qing dynasty to Tibetan areas. Then the governor of Sichuan was moved to Batang, and the governors were set in Sichuan and Lhasa respectively, imitating the example of the three eastern provinces and setting up the governors of the three western provinces, and at the same time began the plan of Sichuan's immigration to Tibetan areas.

② The relationship between Qing Dynasty and Britain was tense because of the establishment of Tibetan province.

5. 1899.

To make peace with England. Under the impetus of Li Hongzhang and other ministers of Westernization School, the Qing Dynasty sent ministers to Britain to inspect and follow the British model to implement constitutional monarchy.

(2) Abolish all Manchu-Han borders.

(3) The Han rulers Li Hongzhang, Zhang Zhidong and Liu Kunyi entered the military headquarters and took control of the central government.

6. 1900.

(1) Under the leadership of Li Hongzhang, Zhang Zhidong and others, the Qing Dynasty began to compile and practice the "new army", set up training centers, and nationalized the defense forces of the provinces.

② The Qing Dynasty allied itself with Germany.

7. 190 1 year to 1908. Influenced by Germany, the Qing Dynasty began to implement a series of new policies. Mainly include

(1) Promote industry and commerce. Since the establishment of the Ministry of Commerce, a series of laws and regulations have been promulgated, such as the Commercial Law of Qing Dynasty, the Charter of Chamber of Commerce, the Charter of Concise Railway, the Charter of Rewarding China Company, the Charter of Mining Industry, the Charter of Company Registration and the Charter of Pilot Bank.

2. Standardize finance. Promulgated the "Clear Measures for Cleaning up Finance", responsible for unifying the central and local revenues and expenditures, coordinating the borrowing and repayment of foreign debts, and assessing provincial banks. Promulgate the "national monetary rules" and prepare the national budget.

③ Reform the education system. Promulgate the "Articles of Association for Rewarding Graduates Studying Abroad" to encourage students to study abroad. The Revision of School Rules was promulgated, which stipulated in detail the school rules and management systems of schools at all levels, and required them to be implemented nationwide in the form of decrees in order to establish a complete school system. Ordered to "stop the extensive study of imperial examinations" and abolish the imperial examination system that lasted for more than 300 years.

④ Reform the official system. Cancel the Prime Minister's Office and establish the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Reorganize the cabinet and set up a conference affairs office, with ministers as cabinet ministers. At the same time, the academic department was set up, and Fan Li's office was changed to Fan Li's department, the Ministry of Commerce to the Ministry of Agriculture, Industry and Commerce, the Ministry of Punishment to the Ministry of Law, the Dali Institute was set up, the Ministry of Civil Affairs was changed to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the inspection department was changed to the Ministry of War, which was subordinate to the Admiralty.

⑤ Reform the judiciary. Three programmatic laws have been promulgated: the Criminal and Civil Procedure Law of the Qing Dynasty, the Criminal Law of the Qing Dynasty and the Draft Civil Law.

8. 1909.

(1) In the Qing Dynasty, Jehol, Chahar, Sutai, URI, Kulun, Budu, Altai and other places were "transformed into provinces according to the mainland", that is, all the inner and outer Mongolia regions were managed in the form of inland counties, with a view to strengthening border defense.

(2) The Qing Dynasty and Britain reached an agreement on the suzerainty of Nepal, Sikkim and Bhutan.

9. 19 10 to 19 14. The powerful Qing dynasty began to compete with France for Vietnam, Britain for Myanmar and Hong Kong, and Russia for Central Asia, and the surrounding relations were tense.

10. 19 14 years. When World War I broke out, the Qing Dynasty joined the German-Austrian camp and declared war on Britain, France and Russia.