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Recently, the prices of food, edible vegetable oil, liquor, pigs, vegetables, water, gas and other necessities have all increased to varying degrees, and the pressure on residents to raise prices has increased. Judging from the general consumer price level (CPI) in June 5438+February, June 1 to February 1 decreased cumulatively compared with the same period of last year, but it increased by 4.8% compared with the same month of last year, ranking second in the province. Signs of market operation show that inflation expectations have emerged, so we should be vigilant and take precautions. 1. At present, the basic price trend of major commodities and services is 1, and the prices of major agricultural and sideline products such as grain, oil and meat have increased greatly. During the period of 65438+February, the grain price in our state market generally rose. Grain prices rose by 1.6%, and rice rose by 2.7% year-on-year. At the end of February, the prices of early indica rice and late indica rice in Jishou market were 1.52 yuan/500g and 1.8 yuan/500g, respectively, up by 3.4% and 2.8% compared with the beginning of the year and the same period last year. Edible vegetable oil has also risen sharply, driven by the international soybean price increase and the domestic peanut production reduction and price increase. 6.5 yuan rapeseed oil in Jishou market was /500g, up 8.3% and 8.3% from the beginning of the month. 58 yuan barrel soybean blending oil /5 liters, up 12.6% from the beginning of the month, down 3% from the beginning of the year, down11.9% from the same period last year; The price of meat and poultry and its products increased by 10.4% compared with the same period of last year, including: pork price decreased by10.9%, beef increased by 22.9%, mutton increased by 7.7%, chicken increased by 25.5%, duck meat increased by 24.2%, and fresh eggs increased by18.3%; In addition, the price of fresh vegetables in 65438+February increased by 49.7% compared with the same month of last year, and the cumulative price in1-65438+February increased by 17.7% compared with the same period of last year. The price of live pigs in Xiangxi market in 2009 1 to 65438+2 chart unit: RMB/500g.

2. The prices of daily industrial products such as tobacco, alcohol, clothing and household appliances are on the rise. 1 1 In the same month, the prices of tobacco, alcohol and supplies increased by 3.9% compared with the same month of last year, including liquor by 20.7% and beer by 5.9%. Clothing increased by 2. 1% compared with the same month of last year, among which the price of women's clothing increased by 3. 1%, the price of children's clothing increased by 7.6%, and the price of shoes, socks and hats increased by 0.7%. The price of household equipment and maintenance services increased by 3.3% compared with the same month of last year. Among them, the prices of furniture such as tables and cabinets rose slightly 1.8%, the prices of household equipment such as electric fans, air conditioners and rice cookers rose by 4.9%, and the prices of household groceries such as tea sets and washing products rose by 7. 1%. In addition, the prices of medical care and personal products increased by 2.7% compared with the same month of last year, among which the prices of Chinese patent medicines, western medicines, shampoo products, washing products, jewelry and other personal products rose by 6.5%, 4.3%, 8.5%, 36.2% and 12.5% respectively. 3. The prices of entertainment, education, culture and other services have also increased to varying degrees. Among them, tuition and miscellaneous fees for non-compulsory education increased by 8.0% compared with the same month of last year, hotel accommodation increased by 7.2%, surgical fees and hospitalization fees for medical services increased by 2.5% and 5.9% respectively, and the prices of personal services such as beauty, hairdressing (perm) and bathing increased by1.6% and 14 respectively. The price of transportation and some houses has gone up. The transportation price increased by 0.5% compared with the same month of last year, in which the transportation price decreased by 10.7%, such as that of automobiles by 26.8%, but the fuel and spare parts for automobiles increased by 17.0% compared with the same month of last year, among which the spare parts for automobiles increased by1.4% and gasoline increased by 22.8%. The prices of residential building and decoration materials increased by 65,438 0.0% compared with the same month of last year, among which the prices of glass, brick, paint and coating increased by 8.6%, 6.2%, 5.7% and 2.6% respectively. In addition, the rent of private houses increased by 12.5%, and the price of urban water supply increased by 24.0%. The price of industrial means of production is rising. Recently, the overall steel price has rebounded, and some varieties have increased greatly; The prices of zinc and manganese in non-ferrous metals hit a new high in the year; The prices of chemical products rose across the board. According to the monitoring of the price department, the prices of round steel (16mm, Q235) and rebar (12, Q235) in Quanzhou market were 4,550 yuan/ton and 4,250 yuan/ton, respectively, up 9.6% and 4.9% year-on-year. Wire rod (Q235 for Pu8 Line) and wire rod (Q235 for High Speed Line 6.5) were 3,950 yuan/ton and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, up by 2.5% and 7.6% respectively. In addition, the price of non-ferrous metals has risen sharply. At the end of this month, the price of zinc ingots was 18850 yuan/ton, up 79.5% from the beginning of the year and up 92.3% from the same period last year. Electrolytic manganese was 654.38+0.4 million yuan/ton, up 65.438+0.4% from the beginning of the year and up 65.438+0.2% from the same period last year. Second, the current market price situation Analysis of the economic and price situation in 20 10 shows that inflation expectations are obvious next year, and structural contradictions in prices and difficulties in regulating market prices still exist, some of which are still outstanding. 1. The most fundamental reason for the formation of this round of inflation expectations is the excess liquidity brought by China's unprecedented loose monetary policy. The situation in our province is the same as that in the whole country. Before 2009 10, the province's new loans were 23.869 billion yuan, more than the same period last year 1504 10 billion yuan. At the end of 10, the balance of various loans reached 929.96 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year, higher than the national average. According to the situation of our state, the balance of various loans of financial institutions reached 654.38+02.63 billion yuan at the end of 2009, an increase of 654.38+09.4% over the beginning of the year. 20 10 under the circumstance that the world and China's economic recovery are still facing many uncertainties, the country will still implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the state of excess policy liquidity will remain for a certain period. Second, international commodity prices rebounded rapidly. Since 2009, the prices of bulk products such as oil, gold and non-ferrous metals have rebounded in the international market. With the sustained recovery, the prices of bulk products in the international market will rise further next year, which will inevitably be transmitted to the prices of downstream consumer goods and aggravate inflation expectations. At present, although the price of crude oil in the international market is basically stable in a reasonable range of more than 70 dollars, according to the analysis of relevant data, it may rise to about 90 dollars next year. However, China's dependence on foreign oil is as high as 40%, and the rise in international oil prices will have a series of impacts on China's market price. Third, the price reform of resources and environment will also push up prices. According to the spirit of national resource and environment reform, the price reform of electricity, gas and water and the adjustment of garbage disposal fee have been put on the agenda, and the price increase of refined oil is inevitable. These reforms and adjustments will inevitably increase the burden on enterprises and the masses, increase consumer spending, and promote the upward trend of market prices. Fourth, the price trend of major commodities tends to rise. It is estimated that the domestic agricultural product prices are expected to rise steadily in 20 10, and the prices of other major agricultural products do not rule out the possibility of rapid increase in stages. Among them, although the grain price had a bumper harvest in 2009, it is expected that the grain price will rise to some extent in 20 10, considering that imported inflation has pushed up the grain price by pushing up the prices of means of production, the international food price is still tight, the contradiction between regional production and consumption is prominent, the support of national policies, inflation expectations, and the reintroduction of the concept of bioenergy. The price of live pigs, from the current market situation, due to the recent decrease in the number of live pigs, the prices of corn and other feed are showing signs of rising, which will inevitably have a greater impact on the price of pork; Vegetable prices are still mainly affected by seasonal factors, especially during New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the prices of individual vegetable varieties may rise sharply; In addition, the price of edible oil is bound to be strong in the near future, driven by the decrease in the number of imported soybeans, the increase in the national purchasing and storage price of soybeans and the entry into the peak consumption season of New Year's Day and Spring Festival. But next year, China will maintain a strong soybean import trend, which will help curb the price increase; Other prices such as cotton and sugar will remain high due to the reduction of domestic peanut and cotton production. In terms of steel price, recently affected by the rebound of international steel prices, after the economic downturn next year, the increase in sales of durable consumer goods such as automobiles will form a certain demand support for steel production. In addition, next year's policy may focus on structural adjustment, which is also conducive to the strength of steel market prices. In addition, due to the recovery of the domestic real economy and seasonal factors, coal prices have risen, leading to price increases. According to relevant data, the average price of coal will increase by 5%- 10% next year. Fifth, the influence of regional factors. Domestic production in our state is insufficient, and most of the commodities are highly dependent on foreign countries, which is a typical consumer market. Its market price trend is greatly influenced by external factors. Over the years, there has been inflation in the domestic market, and the CPI in our state is higher than that in other regions, while there has been deflation in the domestic market, and the CPI in our state is lower than that in other regions. If there is moderate inflation in 20 10 domestic market, it will be more obvious in our state. Third, improve the means of regulation and control, ensure that the overall price level is basically stable at 1, increase support for agriculture, and mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for production. To prevent inflation, we must ensure the supply of the market, and the supply of agricultural and sideline products is the most important. Therefore, we must increase support and protection for agriculture, promote agricultural production and increase farmers' income. It is necessary to insist that industry feeds back agriculture and cities support rural areas. At the same time, it is necessary to further increase the construction of agricultural infrastructure, increase direct subsidies to grain farmers, improved varieties subsidies, agricultural machinery purchase subsidies and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural means of production, and accelerate the improvement of the policy system of strengthening agriculture and benefiting farmers; Further promote the development of agricultural science and technology and create conditions for farmers to increase their income steadily; We should pay special attention to the construction of vegetable base, do a good job in the expansion and increment of the base, and solve the problem of vegetable supply in our state from the outside as soon as possible. 2 local governments should gradually establish and improve the market early warning and regulation mechanism of important agricultural products such as pigs. In the past three years, the fluctuation of market prices has been dominated by the rise and fall of live pig prices. Therefore, governments at all levels should instruct business, animal husbandry, price and other functional departments to gradually establish and expand national and local reserves of important agricultural products such as pigs on the basis of adhering to the current policy of supporting the development of pig production. 3. Strengthen market supervision and standardize the market economic order. The relevant functional departments of the government should cooperate closely, starting from the production, circulation and sales links, rectify and dredge the circulation field of agricultural products by supporting key agricultural products production and processing enterprises, constantly standardize and improve the market price formation mechanism, maintain market order, and ensure the basic stability of prices. 4, according to the law to carry out market price supervision and inspection, standardize market price behavior. While increasing supervision over the prices of grain and oil, pork, water, electricity, liquefied gas, medical care and other people's livelihood, we will severely punish price violations such as hoarding and driving up prices according to law, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of producers, operators and consumers. 5. Strengthen the construction of market price monitoring and early warning mechanism. Closely follow the domestic and international market supply and demand and price trends, and follow and monitor the price trends of important commodities and services such as grain and oil, pork, vegetables, liquefied gas, medical care, education, fertilizer, steel and cement. Accurately reflect the market price trend. At the same time, further improve the emergency plan, strengthen analysis, timely warning, provide reference for the government's macro-control, avoid abnormal fluctuations in local market prices, and stabilize market prices. 6. Strengthen the government's economic means to regulate market prices. In recent years, the state has used the price adjustment fund to support the "vegetable basket" project, increase market supply, give subsidies to liquefied gas enterprises, stabilize market prices, and give one-time financial subsidies to urban residents, which has played an important role in stabilizing market prices and promoting the construction of a harmonious society. However, compared with twin cities in the province, the total amount of collection is small, and the regulation is not enough. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen the collection and management of price adjustment funds, continue to expand their scale, and constantly strengthen the government's regulation and control of the market.