Population issues:
Surplus labor force, slow improvement of population quality, low per capita GDP, low per capita income and rapid population growth make the per capita national income growth rate low!
The RMB passively appreciates due to the depreciation of the US dollar;
Most export enterprises are in trouble or closed down.
Tight fiscal and monetary policies: Many enterprises have difficulty in obtaining loans, and most export enterprises in trouble have closed down because of the difficulty in obtaining loans.
Rising unemployment rate: The working class has had a hard time recently because many export enterprises are in trouble or closed down.
Inflation: Due to the rapid or even crazy appreciation of RMB, the deposit interest rate of the central bank is high, and a large amount of international hot money flows into China, which leads to inflation and eventually leads to price increase.
Considering the continuous development of the problem of excess liquidity, the problem of "three passes" is still outstanding. Although the economic growth is approaching or approaching the top region of the economic cycle, the internal investment impulse of local governments is still very strong. In addition, due to the influence of government transition and optimistic expectation of Olympic economic growth, the economic growth in 2008 may be further improved. Therefore, while maintaining the stability and continuity of the overall macroeconomic policy, it is necessary to appropriately increase the intensity of monetary policy.
The tightening of policies, especially to prevent the overheating of the real economy and the overheating of the virtual economy from reinforcing each other and forming the risk of overall overheating. Specific policy recommendations are:
Continue to curb the adjustment of investment structure.
We should realize the importance of continuing to curb investment growth. Before 2005, export growth was dominated by external pull, and since 2006, export growth was dominated by thrust. Strong thrust and pull are the main reasons for the excessive export surplus since 2006. The increase of thrust is mainly due to the continuous overheating of investment growth rate, which leads to the centralized release of industrial capacity. External imbalance is due to internal imbalance. Restraining investment growth is the key to solve the internal and external imbalance. We should continue to raise interest rates slightly and issue medium and long-term bonds to curb investment in real estate and industry; We will improve the credit structure adjustment policy, increase credit contraction for real estate and related energy-intensive industries, and increase credit supply for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Price control
The focus of price control is house price rather than price, and price supervision and control should be strengthened at the same time. The sharp rise in prices since the second quarter of this year is structural and will not lead to overall inflation. The price factor that affects the stability of economic growth and financial danger is mainly the long-term excessive growth of house prices, not the price. It is relatively easy to control the overheating of the stock market. Combining industrial upgrading with the accelerated development of the capital market, and cooperating with appropriate financial control policies, the stock market will maintain steady growth. The focus of price control is house price. To curb the excessive growth of housing prices, it is mainly necessary to adjust the real estate policy, which can be started from the following aspects: First, the basic housing policy only encourages families to own a set of housing, adopts stricter restraint policies on investment housing, and restricts foreigners from buying houses; The second is to increase the role of tax adjustment, introduce the policy of collecting real estate tax as soon as possible, and promote "selling houses"; Third, strict financial restraint policies should be adopted for the purchase of more than two houses, the down payment for the purchase of more than two houses should be increased to more than 40%, and the interest rate adjustment should be greatly increased to curb the investment demand for housing. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision and regulation of prices. Seriously investigate and deal with three kinds of unfair price behaviors: price collusion, price fraud and price fraud. Relevant government departments should timely monitor the price changes of agricultural products such as grain and oil at home and abroad, and do a good job in the production, supply and price stability of major foods such as grain, oil, meat, eggs and milk. The sharp rise in food prices, especially pork prices, has brought great pressure to low-income residents in urban and rural areas. In order to establish a long-term mechanism to subsidize the disadvantaged groups, the living allowance for the disadvantaged groups can be divided into two parts. First, the routine parts, such as the minimum living standard, are improved year by year; Second, according to the abnormal changes in the prices of basic living goods, direct subsidies are provided to the needy groups.
Accelerate the reform of interest rate marketization and weaken the expectation of RMB appreciation. Excess liquidity has created very good conditions for accelerating the reform of interest rate marketization. The central bank is mainly responsible for the stability and reasonable change of the benchmark interest rate, and other interest rates are gradually determined by commercial banks. We should gradually reduce the spread between deposits and loans and weaken the dependence of commercial banks' profits on the spread and loan scale, so as to effectively curb the excessive impulse of commercial banks to expand loans and encourage commercial banks to develop intermediary business. It is an urgent task of fiscal policy to break the current unilateral appreciation expectation of RMB and weaken the solidification expectation of RMB appreciation.
Continue to reduce the export tax rebate rate
Continue to reduce the export tax rebate rate and speed up the rational adjustment of foreign investment policies. It is suggested to further reduce the overall export tax rebate rate, focus on reducing the export tax rebate rate of processing trade and encourage the export of high-tech products in general trade. The general principle is that the policy of encouraging exports should be consistent with the policy of encouraging industrial upgrading, with the emphasis on encouraging the export of upgraded heavy chemical industrial products. Accelerate the transformation of the concept of attracting investment, gradually weaken the "preference for attracting investment" of local governments, dilute the quantitative assessment indicators of attracting investment, and promote the transformation of attracting investment from administrative investment and pursuing foreign investment scale to following the laws of market economy. Cancel all kinds of "super-national treatment" enjoyed by foreign capital in various places as soon as possible, unify domestic and foreign investment policies, and accelerate the formation of a market economic environment with consistent policies and fair competition between domestic and foreign-funded enterprises. Preferential policies for foreign investment should be closely integrated with industrial policies, and general preferential policies should be changed into differential preferential policies. The authority to formulate and implement preferential policies should be highly centralized in the central government, encourage foreign-funded enterprises with strong technical radiation ability, strong employment absorption ability and resource conservation to invest in agriculture, high-tech industries, infrastructure, environmental protection and service industries, and guide foreign investment to tilt toward the central and western regions.