The Trump administration symbolizes the American society dominated by American right-wing forces, nationalism and trade protectionism, and shows the Chinese and American people how these thoughts undermine the normal development of Sino-US relations. American nationalism and anti-globalization trend of thought require the United States to take a tough attitude towards China and intensify unnecessary contradictions.
At the same time, the process of confrontation between China and the United States has dealt a heavy blow to the expectations of the two peoples for a better future, making the idea of "new cold war" prevail. In the absence of * * * common strategic interests between China and the United States, the Trump administration not only failed to safeguard or even expand the common interests between China and the United States, but instead did the opposite, emphasizing petty profits, which made the contradiction between China and the United States exaggerated under the microscope.
At the same time, it also shows that nationalism and anti-globalization only pay attention to short-term interests and ignore the calculation of long-term interests. Among them, what is easily overlooked is the influence of various confrontational behaviors during Trump's tenure on China nationalism. Once nationalism is aroused, it is difficult to quell it. Nationalists and anti-globalization supporters in the United States will eventually find that they are just shooting themselves.
2. From the geopolitical point of view, the geography between China and the United States is very different from the hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was close to Europe, but there was no "iron curtain" in the Asia-Pacific region to divide China and the United States. Southeast Asian countries have great differences in politics, culture and religion, which are essentially different from the whole of Europe.
Coupled with the strong sense of independence that Southeast Asia is not controlled by China and the United States, neither China nor the United States can control the region, so Southeast Asia has become a buffer zone for Sino-US conflicts. Furthermore, the United States formed NATO against the Soviet Union through multilateral agreements.
In East Asia, the allies in East Asia are controlled by "hub-and-spoke system", that is, alliance agreements signed bilaterally rather than multilaterally. American allies in East Asia are independent of each other, and it is difficult to play the same checks and balances as NATO.
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The background of Sino-American conflict
An obvious conclusion of the difference in the concept of post-war international order is that this Sino-US trade war has gone far beyond the scope of trade and evolved into a full-scale conflict between China and the United States. Coinciding with the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the relationship between the two countries seems to have never been so disturbing as it is today.
In the past few decades, even if there are conflicts or frictions between China and the United States, the interests of a clear division of labor between the two countries in the global industrial chain have basically kept bilateral relations in a relatively stable state. With the rise and fall of the national strength of the two countries and the changes in the international situation, this pattern is disappearing, and conflict or tension is becoming the new normal of bilateral relations.
However, it is not easy to understand the nature of this conflict and predict its scope and degree. At present, some discussions focus on the conflict between civilization and culture, while others think that the ideological conflict will bring bilateral relations back to the Cold War era, and the United States is implementing a new strategy to contain China.
Others compare today's situation with the power balance and hegemony struggle between countries before World War II. Although these explanations are reasonable, they all ignore two basic facts: First, the conflict between China and the United States is a struggle between great powers within the framework of post-war liberal order and principles.
This order still plays an important role in limiting the behavior of the two most important powers in the world and ensuring that the conflict will be limited to a certain extent. This is an important source of global security and stability. On the other hand, this order is facing unprecedented crises and challenges, the ability to restrict big countries is declining, and the possibility of conflicts among big countries is increasing.
A comprehensive explanation of the current situation needs to consider the interaction of these two factors at the same time. The post-war international order still restricts the conflicts between big powers. First of all, from a positive point of view, Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and Trump's coming to power have indeed caused concern about the post-war international system. However, judging from the development trend after more than a year, the post-war international system has shown a very strong binding force.
The international community has shown a high degree of consensus on issues such as free trade, climate issues and global governance. Trump's recent protectionist measures are also clearly opposed by all parties.