1 Introduction
When we welcome the 1999 International Year of the Elderly, the population of China has quietly entered the elderly society (note: editorial department of population research. China entered the old age society. Population research,1999; 5), and will probably become one of the fastest aging countries in the world. The rapid aging and the emergence of an aging society have brought many new problems and challenges to social and economic development. As we all know, the rapid population aging in China is mainly the result of the rapid decline of fertility rate, which can easily lead people to talk about the relationship between family planning and population aging in China. However, this is not only related to the achievements of family planning work, but also to the future trend of population and birth policy. With the rapid arrival of China's aging society and the new population situation in the 2 1 century, we must face up to this relationship and re-examine China's birth policy.
2 Analysis of the reasons for the acceleration of population aging in China
2. 1 Causes of population aging and population transition theory
Population aging is the process of increasing the proportion of middle-aged and elderly people in the total population and the change of age structure. From the perspective of closed population, only the changes of fertility and mortality will affect the changes of population structure. Western demographers have drawn a clear conclusion in the research on the influence of fertility and mortality on the aging process: the decisive factor of population aging is the decline of fertility, not the extension of average life expectancy caused by the decline of mortality (note: Li Jingneng. Contemporary western population theory. Shanxi People's Publishing House, 1992). The impact of mortality decline on population aging is two-way and segmented. The initial decline in mortality will lead to a younger population, and the later decline will promote the aging. This conclusion applies to both developed and developing countries. China scholars have also come to a similar conclusion in their research on the changes of population age structure since the founding of New China (Du Peng, 1994). The research summary published by the United Nations 1973 once again points out that the decline of fertility rate is the biggest cause of population aging, and further points out that the degree of fertility decline can accelerate or delay the process of population aging. For example, although France was the first country with an elderly population of 7%, the proportion doubled to 1 15 years before reaching 14%. In Japan, which began to age after the war, the proportion of the elderly population doubled in just 24 years, making it the fastest aging country in the world. The reason why there is such a big difference is mainly because of the speed of fertility decline in the two countries. The former is gentle and gradual, while the latter is sharp and rapid.
If there is no doubt about the causes of population aging, what are the fundamental reasons for the changes in fertility and mortality? This paper expounds the western population transition theory from macro and micro perspectives. The traditional western demographic transition theory was first put forward by the French demographer Landry at the beginning of this century, and later many scholars made further research and development. After World War II, the theoretical system of population transition was basically formed. Among them, the views of American scholar Notestein are quite influential. He studied the demographic transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society, holding that industrialization, urbanization and economic modernization are the fundamental factors that determine the fertility transition, and divided the demographic transition into four stages. In 1980s, Easterling, an American demographer, investigated the change of fertility rate from the perspective of modernization and established a multi-factor and multi-level theoretical analysis framework. He emphasized five basic variables that affect the change of fertility rate, namely, the improvement of public health; Improvement of general education; Urbanization; Introduce new products and family planning services (R.A.Easterlin, 1985). Although there are some defects in the theory of population transition, especially the lack of explanatory power for population transition in developing countries, there is no doubt that modernization and socio-economic development are the basic reasons for population transition. In this sense, population aging is the result of social progress and economic development, which is the background of population aging in the world today.
2.2 China family planning and population aging
Generally speaking, the demographic transition in China began with the founding of New China. At first, the mortality rate decreased obviously and rapidly, but the national fertility transformation began with the intervention of the national family planning policy in the early 1970s, and quickly changed from a high fertility level to a low fertility level. The rapid change of population structure in China has attracted worldwide attention. From the end of 1980s to the beginning of 1990s, there were different opinions on the theoretical explanation of China's demographic transition. Obviously, it can't be completely explained from the traditional western population transition theory. In fact, after World War II, the population transformation in developing countries took a different path from that in western developed countries. The most obvious feature is the intervention of the national government, first of all, the decline in mortality. Western scholars point out that underdeveloped countries directly use the knowledge and technology accumulated by developed countries, which makes the mortality rate drop much faster than that experienced by Western Europe. For example, it took Mauritius only seven years to reduce the mortality rate from 27‰ to 15‰, while it took England and Wales 100 (Carlo
In a word, family planning is not the root cause of China's aging population, because even if family planning is not implemented, China's population will age with the development of social economy. However, family planning is the main reason for the accelerated aging of the population in China. In other words, China's strong family planning has led to a rapid decline in the fertility rate, and the sharp and sustained decline in the fertility level will inevitably lead to the rapid aging of the population in China.
How much does family planning affect the age structure of the population? Some scholars have done quantitative research in this field (Xiao, 1994). The results show that from 1970s to the third census, the implementation of population control reduced the proportion of population aged 0- 14 from 39.7% of the uncontrolled population to 33.5% under actual control. The proportion of people aged 65 rose from 4.4% to 4.9%. By the fourth census of 1990, the proportion of children aged 0 ~ 14 would have dropped from 39.7% to 36.4%, but it actually dropped from 33.5% to 27.7%. The proportion of the 65-year-old population has also risen from uncontrollable 4.8% to 5.6%, which has promoted the transformation of China's population from young to adult. In fact, this influence will continue, and it will be more obvious in the first half of 2 1 century, which means that the proportion of the elderly population will change even more. Here, we might as well compare the changes in the proportion of middle-aged and elderly people between China and other developing China countries and other populous countries in the first half of February 1999 according to the data predicted by the United Nations plan.
(see table 1).
Table 1 Trends of Population Size and Structure in China, India and Indonesia
1995 2000 20 10 2020 2030 2040 2050
TFR 1.80 1.84 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
China 65+(%) 6.16.88.11.515.721.322.6.
Total population (ten thousand people)122052127756137292145446149594150437147777.
TFR 3. 13 2.72 2. 10 2. 10
India 65+(%) 4.65.0 5.8 7.3 9.712.315.1
Total population (ten thousand people) 9336710136610/5217217138272/.
TFR 2.58 2.26 2. 10
Indonesia 65+(%) 4.3 4.7 5.9 7.2 9.913.516.5
Total population (ten thousand people)19746 21212380126229 28352 300123186.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, new york, 1999.
China, India and Indonesia are all populous countries in Asia and belong to developing countries. 1996 GNP per capita is US$ 670, US$ 322 and US$ 920 respectively, and China's economic development level is in the middle. All three countries advocate family planning, but the strength, methods and effects are different. From 65438 to 0995, the fertility levels in China, India and Indonesia were 1.8, 3. 13 and 2.58 respectively. Because China has implemented the strictest birth policy in the world, even if the total fertility rate was stable at 1.9 in the 20th century, the population aging was much faster than other countries with similar economic development level. If we only look at the level of social and economic development and the relatively loose birth policy, China's aging level should be similar to these two countries, but there is not much difference in fact. China's population has entered an old-age society, with the proportion of people over 65 reaching 14%, almost 20 years earlier than these two countries. It can be seen that family planning has accelerated the aging of our population.
3 Rapid aging brings new challenges to family planning.
As a result of family planning, the population of China has stepped into an aging society ahead of schedule, and the rapid and sustained decline of fertility rate will lead to an unprecedented acceleration of population aging in the first half of the next century. According to the author's forecast (li jianxin, 1997), the population over 65 in China will reach 7% in 2000 and 14% around 2025. If the plan is low, the time to reach 14% will be in 2020, and the population aging rate can be compared with that of developed country Japan, and it will become the world in the next century.
In fact, the change of population aging in the population age structure can be manifested in three aspects: the increase of the proportion of the elderly population to the total population, the increase of the proportion of the elderly population (aging), and the increase of the proportion of the middle-aged and elderly working population (45-59 years old) to the labor force. There is no doubt that the aging population will have a great impact on social and economic development. The increase of the ratio of the elderly population to the elderly population means the increase of the dependency coefficient of the elderly and the increase of the burden of the social security system. The aging of the labor force directly affects economic development and the improvement of labor productivity.
Since the birth of Malthus' population theory, the debate on the relationship between population and resources, environment and socio-economic development has never stopped. Pessimism tends to exaggerate the side effects of population size and population growth on resources, environment and socio-economic development, and constantly warns mankind with "population explosion", "resource depletion" and "environmental crisis". Population optimists believe that from a macro and long-term perspective, population growth has a positive effect on social progress and economic development. It is difficult to draw a clear conclusion about who is right or wrong.
If people still have some arguments about the impact of population size and population growth on development, then the relationship between population structure and development seems less controversial. Since 1950s, with the increasing proportion of the elderly population in western developed countries, western demographers have paid more and more attention to the impact of population aging on social economy. From the perspective of the impact on economic development, western scholars generally believe that the aging population will make the proportion of working-age population decline relatively and the labor resources shrink relatively, which will affect social production and development to a certain extent and bring serious economic consequences. Secondly, the aging of the population is followed by the aging of the labor force, because the sustained low fertility rate will make the proportion of young people low, and the number of new working-age people will decrease, which will inevitably lead to the aging of the working-age population. In the era when science and technology are productive forces, the old labor force is at a disadvantage compared with the young labor force in accepting new knowledge and technology, and its adaptability to new industries and new jobs is even weaker. Therefore, with the aging of population and labor force, the improvement of labor productivity and economic development will inevitably be affected. Of course, the influence of aging is not only manifested in economic development, but also in various fields of society, such as the increase of social pension burden, the increase of medical expenses for the elderly, the change of social values and so on.
The aging of population in China is more and more obvious, and the aging of labor force is inevitable. Table 2 lists the changing trend of the future labor force quantity and proportion in the author's low and medium forecast scheme.
Table 2 Future labor force and aging trend in China.
Mid-year plan low plan
15~59 15~29(%) 45~59(%) 65[+](%) 15~59 15~29(%)
1990 723.36 48.76 18.88 5.6 723.36 48.76
2000 8 13.74 38.55 23.47 7.0 8 13.74 38.55
20 10 923.39 35.75 28.03 8.4 923.39 35.75
2020 946.26 33.28 34.69 1 1.7 943.2 1 33.06
2030 898.67 30.04 32.87 15.9 872.42 27.97
2040 867.90 3 1.68 36. 1 1 2 1.5 799.03 27. 16
2050 806.6 1 29.52 37.00 23.0 695.46 24.62
45 ~ 59 years old (%) 65 [+] (%)
1990 18.88 5.6
2000 23.47 7.0
20 10 28.03 8.5
2020 34.80 12. 1
2030 33.86 16.9
2040 39.23 23.8
2050 42.65 26.7
Source: Based on the data of the author's doctoral thesis.
The results predicted in the table show that, firstly, China's labor force population will increase again around 2020, but at the same time, the labor force population is aging rapidly, showing that the proportion of young labor force population (15-29 years old) is decreasing, while the proportion of old labor force population (45-59 years old) is increasing; Secondly, starting from 2020, the total labor force population will not only continue to decline, but also the aging of the labor force population will be further aggravated (Du Peng, 1994). Further analysis shows that although the change trend of the two schemes is the same, the degree of change is different in both the total labor force population and the aging speed of the labor force population. The policy implications of the two schemes here are that in 2000, the total fertility rate of the same population in rural areas (that is, the lifetime fertility rate) decreased to 2. 10 (the rural total fertility rate 1990 was 2.54), while the urban total fertility rate increased from 1990 to 1.55, and remained unchanged. The low plan is that cities and towns always adhere to the one-child policy, and rural areas only open their daughter households, that is, the strict current birth policy is urban 1.2 and rural 1.6 (li jianxin 1.997). Obviously, continuing to implement the strict current birth policy will aggravate the aging of the population, the aging of the workforce and the shrinking of the workforce in the future.
As the above analysis shows, China will inevitably enter an aging society, but is it necessary for us to accelerate our entry into the aging society that western developed countries are worried about? This is an important issue that deserves the attention of scholars, especially the government and decision-making departments. If the current family planning policy can only achieve the objective of population control, but the consequence is that China's population is aging too fast, which will bring many problems to social and economic development, even many unexpected problems that are more serious than today's population, then it is necessary for us to re-examine our family planning policy. As the saying goes, "He who unties the bell must tie it."
4265438+Adjustment of China's Birth Policy in the 20th Century.
4. 1 Get out of the population trap
In the early 1970s, China's persistently high fertility rate and strong population growth momentum reached the point where they must be controlled. At that time, reducing the fertility rate and controlling the population were the primary tasks of family planning. After more than 20 years' efforts, China has made universally recognized achievements in family planning and made positive contributions to social and economic development. In the mid-1990s, the total fertility rate (TFR) in China has been kept below the replacement level. The TFR of the national bureau of statistics 1995 1% population sampling survey was 1.46, and that of the national family planning commission1.38 in 1997. Many scholars can't believe this low fertility level, so they made adjustments and thought that the current fertility level is roughly 1.7 ~ 1.8 (Joe, 1999). Whether it is the data of relevant state departments or the adjusted data, it shows that the fertility rate in our country has reached a very low level, close to the level of developed countries at present. Obviously, this is completely different from the high fertility rate and high growth more than 20 years ago, and a qualitative and fundamental change has taken place. At present, the population of China is in an era of low fertility rate, low inertia growth and accelerated aging. Faced with the new population situation in China, should we re-examine the family planning policy that has always focused only on population control, inject new content into the birth policy, and make necessary adjustments according to the new situation and development? This is a question that we must answer. To answer these questions, we must first get out of China's population trap.
Since the 1970s, China people have felt the "burden" of population, and it seems that they have never got rid of this shadow. There seems to be a tendency to be pessimistic about the population of China. A careful study of the history of population changes in the world will give us many useful inspirations. Since Malthusian population pessimism appeared in 1798, especially after World War II, there has been an unprecedented growth period, and the population pessimism has never stopped. When the population of developing countries is at the peak of population growth, American population ecologist Paul
If we look back at the population of China, many facts are even more intriguing. As we all know, as early as the eve of the birth of New China, American Secretary of State Acheson spread many pessimistic remarks. He thinks: "The population of China doubled in the 18 and 19 centuries, which made the land bear unbearable pressure. People's feeding is the first problem that every China government must face. Until now, no government has solved this problem. " (Note: Selected Works of Mao Zedong and Mao Zedong, Volume IV. People's Publishing House, 199 1) In the article "On the Bankruptcy of Idealism", President Mao Zedong refuted this fallacy and put forward the famous thesis of "revolution plus production" to solve the population problem in China. Facts have proved Mao Zedong's assertion. In the era of reform and opening up, the population of China increased from about 500 million in the early days of liberation to 654.38+0 billion, and then to more than 654.38+0.2 billion. But today, we feel that poverty has decreased and life has become richer, which is the result of reform and economic development. The author has no intention to deny that there is no population problem in China. The huge population base has brought great pressure to the resources, environment and social and economic development of China. The development of family planning has undoubtedly promoted the coordinated development of population, social economy, resources and environment. What I want to emphasize here is that the essence of the population problem is development, both for the world and for China. We should not take the population problem too seriously. We must break the shackles of population and get out of the trap of population indicators.
4.2 Number and structure of birth policy
Family planning policy is the basic national policy of our country, and it is a means to adjust the population in order to realize the strategic goal of sustainable development in our country. Family planning realizes the adjustment of population quantity and population structure through the adjustment of fertility rate. Since the early 1990s, many scholars have suggested that China's family planning policy should be improved (Ceng Yi,1991; Li jianxin, 1996,1997; Beam,1999; Joe,1999; Wang Guoqiang, 1999). Theoretically speaking, the optimal population under the strategic goal of sustainable development should not only pay attention to the population quantity and structure, but also pay attention to the population quality and human development. However, family planning can only be directly regulated by quantity and structure. If population was the primary problem in China 20 or 30 years ago, then the population problem in China is no longer as prominent as family planning and population control in the past 20 years; On the contrary, the problem of population structure is obvious. From the above discussion, we can see that the aging population in the west has obvious negative effects on western society. Today, with the high level of economic development in these developed countries, the elderly population has reached or exceeded 14%. For example, in Japan, 16.2% has reached 1998 16.2%, with a per capita GNP of more than $36,000. After more than 20 years, the proportion of elderly people in China will reach this level, but there will be a big gap in the level of economic development. By then, the rapidly aging population will in turn have a negative impact on social and economic development. It is conceivable that the problem of population aging in China will be more prominent than that in developed countries. The reason why we can't easily get out of the shadow of population is that we always feel that the huge population at present brings pressure to our resources and environment and difficulties to social and economic development. On the contrary, although the problem of aging has appeared, it has not yet felt so urgent and severe. In fact, this understanding is biased, and not being strict now does not mean that there will be no problems in the future. The family planning policy should follow the population's own laws and be forward-looking. For example, the population born now, 15 or 20 years later will not enter the workforce. At that time, the aging population is too serious or the labor force is insufficient, and it is useless to rely on family planning to adjust. Therefore, it is time to put the adjustment of family planning policy on the agenda.
The author argues that the current fertility policy, which pursues low fertility and only focuses on population control, should be smoothly transformed into a policy of "adjusting the age structure of the population with low fertility at the same time", that is, the population size and population structure are juxtaposed. The meaning of this policy is as follows. As we all know, the change of fertility rate in China is not sufficient and complete in many areas, especially in backward rural areas. In areas where the fertility rate is higher than the replacement level or the fertility level is likely to rebound, we will continue to do a good job in population control and reduce the fertility level to about 2.0. On the other hand, for areas with extremely low fertility level, especially developed urban areas, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the total fertility rate has dropped below 1.0, so it is no longer necessary to maintain such a low fertility level, but measures should be taken to stimulate the fertility rate to rise, so as to achieve the purpose of regulating the population structure. Of course, the upper limit of fertility rate is replacement level. Therefore, the family planning policy is actually to control the population growth and adjust the population age structure by maintaining the total fertility rate at the level of 1.8 or 1.9 ~ 2. 1. Instead of the current family planning policy, it only seeks to reduce the fertility rate as much as possible. Therefore, when we see that the total fertility rates surveyed by relevant state departments in 1995 and 1997 are all below 1.5 (if it is true), then we should no longer regard it as an achievement, but as a worry and a problem. Only in this way, the population of China will not be excessively aging in the future, and it will not bring many unexpected and serious problems today. Only in this way can we meet the strategic goal of sustainable development in China. If we can reach an understanding on this, then the next question will be how and when to adjust the transition (these issues will be discussed in another article due to the limited space).