Major environmental problems promote the scientific development of the earth system
The earth system refers to a whole earth composed of atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere (including human beings themselves). It covers a very wide range from the center of the earth to the outer space of the earth, and it is a complex nonlinear system, in which there are interactions among the components of the earth system, mainly among the three basic processes of physics, chemistry and biology, as well as the interaction between man and the earth system. According to the viewpoint of earth system science, global change is the result of interaction and feedback among various components of the earth-core, mantle, lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere (including human society). The scientific understanding of these interactions and feedback processes needs to study the earth as a unified dynamic system. Therefore, in order to solve the important scientific problems of contemporary resources and environment, we must regard the earth as a continuous and unified organic whole composed of interacting components or subsystems-the earth system, and study the overall behavior of the earth system by using the principle of general system theory.
From 1983, NASA first put forward the concept of "earth system science", and in the short 20 years now, earth system science has become the main scientific goal of the international earth science community and the development of earth science in various countries. In a recent strategic report, the Geological Department of the National Science Foundation of the United States clearly pointed out that "the scientific challenge of earth science lies in understanding and predicting the basic processes and interactions of physical subsystems, biological subsystems and human subsystems in the earth system". Japan's recent "Prediction of Earth Change" program emphasizes the research, observation and simulation of various processes in the earth system. In "1994-2000 Earth Science Strategy", Britain also put forward that its strategic goal is to understand the knowledge and understanding of the earth system process.
Today, the seriousness of environmental problems faced by human beings lies in that it involves a series of major issues such as the relationship between human beings and their own life support systems. More and more evidence shows that this relationship is becoming more and more tense. Human activities are threatening the environmental system on which we live. It is no longer just a local or regional issue, but a global issue that transcends national boundaries. This is also a historical issue. Although it originated from the industrial revolution, it really attracted the attention of the world in recent decades. These major environmental problems have gone far beyond the scope of a single discipline in scientific content, and often involve many environmental factors such as atmosphere, ocean, soil and biology, and are closely related to physical, chemical and biological processes. Only from the overall study of the earth system can we find out the causes of these problems and seek solutions. Understanding the changing law of the earth system and its subsystems and predicting its future changing trend can reduce the adverse effects brought by the changes of the earth system, reduce natural disasters and their losses, improve the adaptability of human beings to the changes of the earth system and realize the ultimate goal of earth science research. At present, the research on the earth system is more targeted, and more emphasis is placed on solving the main challenges faced by the sustainable development of human society and economy in order to serve social development.
Contemporary major environmental problems are mainly caused by unreasonable exploitation and utilization of the earth's resources by human beings, and their effects are close to natural changes, which may have long-term irreversible consequences for the future living environment of human beings. In the past century, with global warming as the main feature, the global climate and environment have undergone tremendous changes: water shortage, ecosystem degradation, increased soil erosion, sharp decline in biodiversity, ozone depletion, changes in atmospheric chemical composition, and decline in fishery production. These changes are mainly caused by human activities. Because the scope of global changes has gone beyond the natural changes of the earth itself, it poses a serious threat to human survival and social and economic development. According to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming will continue at a faster rate in the future. In the future 100, the global temperature will rise by 1.4-5.8℃, which will bring more serious impact on the global environment. If this situation cannot be effectively curbed, the earth will eventually become a planet unsuitable for human beings and other life. In 2004, the Pentagon provided President Bush with a secret report entitled "Global Change Will Destroy America". Its core content is that in the next 20 years, climate change will lead to global disasters, global riots and nuclear wars, and millions of people will die from wars and natural disasters caused by global warming. By 2020, major European cities will be submerged by seawater, and Britain will become a "Siberian" climate. Therefore, the threat of climate warming to the world exceeds the current terrorist activities that disturb the United States. Climate change is no longer a scientific debate, but a national security issue in the United States. Now even the US military is studying the threat of changes in the earth system to national security, which shows the significance of studying changes in the global system.
Questions that Earth System Science has answered and needs to answer.
Earth system science is to study the operating mechanism of the earth system in complex interaction, the laws of the changes of the earth system and the mechanisms to control these changes, so as to establish a scientific basis for global environmental change prediction and provide a basis for the scientific management of the earth system. Therefore, the earth system science is the basic science to meet the basic living environment problems faced by human beings, that is, the challenge of global change, and it is also the theoretical basis or knowledge system for people to use and protect the environment and resources today.
In the past 10 years, the study of the earth system has made a major breakthrough. One of the most important achievements is that we realize that the earth system has gone beyond the range of natural changes in at least the past 500 thousand years. At present, the global environmental system is undergoing these changes at the same time, and the scope and speed of the changes are unprecedented in our human history, even in the whole history of the earth. These changes that are taking place at present are actually changes in the relationship between man and nature. Although it didn't happen for a long time, it had a far-reaching impact. In addition, many changes are accelerating. These changes have a related impact on the global environment. They are still difficult to find, often unpredictable and often happen suddenly. Because human activities have caused these global environmental changes, we human society should at least respond and adopt targeted and creative coping and adaptation strategies. Although some measures have been taken to deal with some changes, most of them have not been done. If this situation continues, our earth will eventually become a planet unsuitable for human beings and other life.
Another major breakthrough has been made in the study of the earth system, which shows a series of far-reaching discoveries that were difficult to predict even 20 years ago: there is an amazing coupling relationship between the slow movement in the earth and the rapid movement of the ocean and atmospheric system. In addition, there are some signs that subtle changes in the shape of ocean basins have deeply affected the circulation of the ocean; The fluctuation of tectonic action will cause the chaos of carbon dioxide cycle; The frequency and earthquake mechanism of volcanic eruption are related to mantle fluid dynamics; The fluid circulation between the ocean and the mantle certainly affects the characteristics of volcanic activity, and may even be the medium of plate tectonic activity. Therefore, without understanding these complex interactions, it is impossible to predict various global phenomena with high accuracy. In recent years, because people have revealed and mastered the relationship between El Ni? o and abnormal climate and some interactions between various phenomena, people have succeeded in predicting El Ni? o phenomenon.
/kloc-the research results in the field of global change in the past 0/0 years have more and more profoundly revealed the complexity of the earth system and the nature of interaction, as well as the ways in which human activities affect the system. Although global change research has carried out a lot of exciting scientific research work and achieved fruitful results. However, so far, we are not sure where the critical threshold is, and we don't know whether, when and how the increasing human activities will push the earth system to cross the critical threshold and enter another environmental state of the earth. We also don't know what characteristics and operation mode the earth system should have to be a robust system, so that we can safely realize the sustainable development of the earth.
At present, scientific research in the field of global change has made a lot of contributions to our understanding of the earth system, but there is still a lot of work to be done. Ensuring our future sustainable development is an urgent challenge. We have the ability to meet this challenge, but we must adopt a new, more dynamic and comprehensive research method of earth system science. People hope that scientific research can provide the necessary knowledge base, so that human society can fully discuss and think about global changes and finally propose solutions.
How to deal with the challenge of global environmental change, how to adapt to the possible environmental changes in the future, how to effectively use this changing environment, that is, how to rationally manage the "Earth Life Support System" to meet the pursuit of sustainable development, are the questions that must be answered in the study of the Earth system at the beginning of 2 1 century. Therefore, in 2003, IGBP officially entered the second development stage. At present, the scientific research on global change emphasizes synthesis and integration in methods, interdisciplinary and global sustainability in research content, and knowledge reserve, infrastructure construction and public publicity in capacity building. In addition, the plan also emphasizes the knowledge of global change research, recognizing that global change must pay attention to major environmental issues in the sustainable development of society, and carry out further research on the earth system. This is of inestimable value to reduce the uncertainty of future environmental prediction and promote the sustainable development of future society.
China urgently needs to strengthen the study of global environmental change.
The impact of global environmental changes on the social and economic development of China and the ecological environment of China is remarkable, multifaceted and profound. Under the influence of global change, China's natural ecosystem is changing. Such as climate warming, glacier degradation, forest reduction, grassland degradation, desertification area increase, biodiversity decrease, and the trend of drought in the north is intensifying. Great and profound changes have taken place in the climate, ecology and environment of China. In the past century, the average surface temperature in China has risen by 0.6-0.7℃, the sea level has risen by 10-20cm, and the glacier area has decreased by about 25%. In the past 50 years, the annual rainfall in the north has decreased by 10%, and the drought has intensified. In the past 20 years, the risk of extreme weather and climate events such as drought and flood has increased, and the frequency of mountain disasters has also increased in the past 50 years. For example, the Ecological Open Research Laboratory of Vegetation Quantity of Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences conducted a comprehensive study on the relationship between climate and vegetation in China, and used three possible change schemes: the annual average temperature increased by 4℃, the annual precipitation increased or decreased by 10% or all parameters remained unchanged. The simulation results show that the forest vegetation in China moved from south to north by 3 to 5 latitudes, and the forest area increased in the south and decreased in the north, but the total area decreased. Temperate grassland is sensitive to global change, and its area has increased, and most of it has evolved from forests. Temperate desertification has expanded by one third, and the desertification process is remarkable. The alpine vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the western mountainous areas of China will disappear in large quantities. Global climate change is putting increasing pressure on China. Domestic research shows that according to the current global warming trend, after 30 years, the main crops (rice, wheat and corn) in China will reduce production by 5- 10%, and the occurrence frequency and damage degree of pests and diseases will increase obviously; The shortage of water resources is increasing. It is predicted that even if strict water-saving measures were taken in 1930s, the Yellow River basin would still be short of water by 20 billion tons. The types and influence scope of infectious diseases will be obviously expanded, and some extinct infectious diseases may resurface; The sea level in China will continue to rise in the future. By 2030, the coastal sea level in China will rise by1-16cm, and it is expected to reach 30-70cm by the end of February1. This will increase the chances of floods in many coastal areas, increase the degree and severity of storm impact, increase the probability of sudden climate events, and may have disastrous consequences on a large scale. In short, global changes have a great impact on the national economy, especially on water resources, agriculture, energy, transportation, human health and extreme weather and climate events. Understanding and correctly understanding these changes and future trends involves the study of many important scientific issues.
On the other hand, in the implementation of relevant global environmental treaties and diplomatic negotiations, the results of global change research can provide scientific support and countermeasures for alleviating China's increasing international pressure and safeguarding China's fundamental interests. Therefore, studying global change is not only of great scientific significance, but also of great practical significance. At present, most of China's pollution emissions are among the best in the world and remain high. Except carbon dioxide, the emissions of other greenhouse gases and aerosols rank first, accounting for a large share of global emissions. On the one hand, this situation has a serious impact on China's ecological environment, and at the same time, it faces great pressure to implement international conventions.
In the future, the international pressure on developing countries, especially large developing countries like China, to take measures to protect the climate will increase significantly, and China will face more and more international compliance problems. As the second largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world and a responsible country, China should make rational choices, comprehensive responses and positive actions from the perspective of its own sustainable development goals, make full use of international opportunities to cope with global changes, strive for the initiative in the process of global environmental protection, realize all-round changes in production and consumption patterns, and ensure the realization of sustainable development goals.
In view of the profound influence of global change on human survival and social development, it requires people to cope with the deepening understanding of global environmental change by changing their values, beliefs and behaviors. In order to meet the challenge of global environmental change, the international scientific community has formulated a global change research plan. The purpose of this plan is to describe and understand the physical, chemical and biological processes that control the earth system and its evolutionary interaction, and the role played by human activities in it, quantitatively estimate the biogeochemical cycle of the whole earth, establish a scientific basis for predicting global environmental changes, and enhance human ability to predict major global changes in the next few decades to hundreds of years. Its overall goal is to gradually improve the understanding of the evolution law of the earth's environment, including climate, predict the future environmental development trend, provide scientific basis for macro-decision-making on global environmental issues, provide scientific and technological support for governments to formulate policies on resource development and utilization, environmental protection and governance, and finally serve the decision-making on environmental and development issues at the world and national levels.
There is a big gap between China's earth system science and the advanced level in the world.
/kloc-since 0/0, China has carried out a number of global change research projects and achieved a lot of research results with international influence, especially in the field of East Asian monsoon environmental system, which has reached the advanced ranks in the world, enhanced China's "popularity" in the field of international global change research and made important contributions to international global change research. But compared with the international level, there is still a certain gap. The performance is that a perfect eco-environmental science and technology system suitable for the national conditions has not yet been formed, which can not meet the national demand and has a considerable gap compared with the international advanced level. In the past 20 years, China's eco-environmental scientific research has basically been in a passive tracking state, lacking the foundation, applied research and key technology development of major eco-environmental problems based on national conditions, being out of touch with the development speed of problems, lacking theoretical and technical reserves to deal with new environmental problems, failing to effectively penetrate into all aspects of social economy, and making it difficult to further clarify the environmental protection strategy and technical direction. This is not commensurate with the seriousness of China's ecological and environmental problems and its status as an international power. The main problems are: (1) lack of systematic basic observation data, including both the observation data of modern processes and the recorded data of past climate and environmental change processes; The research on the interaction and comprehensive integration of atmosphere, ocean, land and human activities in monsoon environment system is not deep enough. Lack of perfect climate prediction system and climate system model. (2) Lack of original research on major scientific issues of ecology and environment. (3) Lack of comprehensive research and global vision of long-span interdisciplinary systems. (4) Long-term, continuous and dynamic basic data accumulation is not enough. (5) Lack of technology integration and environmental protection equipment with independent intellectual property rights. (6) The scientific and technological support for national decision-making is weak.
Based on the passive tracking state, there is a lack of a perfect eco-environmental science and technology system? The gap between China's earth system science research and international advanced developed countries is widening, mainly in the following aspects:
1. Many international frontier and hot issues related to earth system research have not been put on the agenda in China.
At present, the international earth system science has entered a new stage, aiming at a new high point, but the major frontier issues being discussed and studied in the world are rarely studied in China. For example, in April 2003, the Geophysical Societies of Europe and the United States jointly held a meeting of 10,000 people in Nice, France. The hot topics discussed, such as Phanerozoic atmospheric history, magma generation and evolution between the earth and terrestrial planets, exchange of atmosphere and biosphere: a comprehensive discussion from source to sink, mantle structure and composition: coordination of geophysical and geochemical models, all belong to earth system science.
2. China's participation is often absent from the academic summary of major international projects.
China has actively participated in some international cooperation projects on earth system research, and invested a lot of money in practical observation and data collection. But by the time of academic summary, the participation of China scholars dropped significantly. We can contribute to the generation of data in the outer circle of the research plan, but we can't enter the core, let alone play the role of material "assembly" and theoretical discussion. The reason for these differences is that geologists in China have a narrow vision, and there are few papers based on their own country and facing the world. Many research papers are still in the traditional description stage; The theoretical discussion of key issues in earth system science has basically not been put on the agenda, so our research is only satisfied with exporting "raw materials" to international academic circles.
3. Compared with the world advanced level, the development level of land and resources science and technology is forming an "era" gap.
Looking at the research work carried out by developed countries in the field of land and resources, a great feature is to deploy major scientific and technological work with high technology as the guide and complete the modernization of technical equipment. According to "China Modernization Report 2004", compared with developed countries, although the gap between China and foreign countries is narrowing, it still ranks 60th in the world. Accordingly, it is estimated that the modernization level of China's land and resources work will not be higher than this figure.
The scientific research of land and resources in China is in a very special historical stage. Under the condition that the modernization of technical equipment has not been completed, it is now facing the challenge of informationization, and it is forming a "time gap" with developed countries in technology. This gap is not tactical but strategic. According to the strategic deployment of American geoscience development, around 2020, under the guidance of the new geoscience knowledge system, the United States will build a new resource science and technology system that truly reflects the characteristics of the times and adapts to high-tech development and resource demand.
Faced with this situation, we must strengthen our sense of hardship, which requires us not to think according to the time sequence relationship of general development, not to repeat the road taken by developed countries, and to take the road of leap-forward development. We should make full use of the extensive diffusion, permeability and enjoyment of contemporary information technology, make full use of the technical and material foundation initially formed by national informatization construction, rapidly transform traditional work with informatization, vigorously develop key technical equipment with independent intellectual property rights and strategic position, and build a technical support system for modern exploration and investigation of land and resources.
In the past 10 years, the achievements and influences of famous international research institutions in earth science, environment/ecology and other fields reflect the past development and future research competition in this field. In this field, China lags far behind the United States and other advanced countries in terms of the number of famous scientists, the number of famous scientific institutions, and the scientific output and achievements of famous institutions. In recent 20 years, 246 famous scientists who have important influence in the international geoscience field are mainly distributed in 10 western developed countries dominated by the United States, of which the United States accounts for 70%, and 246 famous scientists who have important influence in the environment/ecology field are mainly distributed in 19 countries dominated by the United States, of which the United States accounts for 67%. No scientist in China has entered the top 250 in earth science and environmental ecology. Institute for scientific information (ISI)(200 1) selected the top 250 scientists in various fields according to the number of times that articles published by nearly 5 million scientists around the world were cited by their peers in recent 20 years (198 1- 1999). The work units and countries of the two scientists are not shown. Another 246 scientists are located in 19 institutions in 10 countries, including 65 in the United States, 0/3 in Britain, 0/2 in France, 4 in Switzerland, 4 in Canada, 4 in Australia, 2 in the Netherlands and 2 in Japan.
Seize the opportunity to promote the scientific development of the earth system
The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020, and listed it as one of the four major goals of building a well-off society in an all-round way: "The ability of sustainable development has been continuously enhanced, the ecological environment has been improved, the utilization rate of resources has been significantly improved, the harmony between man and nature has been promoted, and the whole society has embarked on a civilized development path of production development, affluent life and good ecology". The coming 15 year is an important strategic opportunity period for China's social and economic development, which poses a severe challenge to China's ecological environment protection and construction. In order to realize the basic strategy of sustainable development and the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, we must fundamentally change the mode of production and consumption through scientific and technological progress, so as to coordinate society, economy and environment.
The development of eco-environmental science and technology should be guided by the theory of sustainable development, with the basic starting point of solving major problems of China's eco-environment and improving the quality of the eco-environment, with the main line of changing the unsustainable development mode, and integrating eco-environmental protection into all aspects of social and economic development. Through independent innovation and comprehensive integration research, we will build a well-off society in an all-round way and a theoretical and technical system of eco-environmental science suitable for China's national conditions, provide scientific and technological support for improving resource utilization and efficiency, reducing pollutant emissions, reducing environmental health risks, improving macro-decision-making level of eco-environment, enhancing sustainable development capability, and realizing a virtuous cycle of ecosystems, adapt to the global change trend, gradually establish a sustainable development model oriented by circular economy, and cultivate a number of internationally influential scientific research teams in the field of eco-environment.
In the coming 10 year, the sustainable development of China will face a series of severe challenges, not only to deal with the long-term accumulated problems in the fields of population, resources and environment, but also to solve the new problems in the development process. Among them, the demand of national development and the background of the great leap forward in earth science research, in order to respond to the research objectives of international global change research on scientific management and maintenance of earth life support system and meet the pursuit of sustainable development of human society, China should actively carry out the research on global change and sustainable development in line with the latest research directions of international global change science and sustainable development science. In particular, the study of the earth system is of practical significance to the future development of China, and it is likely to have a unique impact on the future of the earth system. This is a land of great pressure but full of infinite hope. It has a large population and sustained and rapid economic development, which are two factors that cause global changes. The history of this land is so splendid, the culture is so splendid, and the people are so full of vitality. Since ancient times, China has been regarded as a country with enterprising spirit and reform consciousness, which has become the source of power for the development of Asia, and the Asian region is likely to play a decisive role in ultimately determining the relationship between human beings and the environment. It is believed that on the journey of earth system science, the academic circles in China will usher in a new spring in China and make new contributions to the development of international earth system science. Therefore, China should seize the opportunity and make early deployment, and therefore suggest:
1. Strengthen the research on the core theory of earth system science, but not just follow the trend of foreign countries. For a long time, the earth science in China has been dominated by phenomena and records, so it is difficult to enter the core of international earth system cooperation research. Only by obtaining high-quality records, purposefully carrying out modern process observation and experiments, and actively promoting numerical simulation of theoretical models can we advance from phenomenon description to mechanism exploration and effectively carry out core theoretical research. In addition, it is necessary to analyze China's unique natural conditions, select major topics with breakthrough prospects according to actual research strength and scientific accumulation, and realize national-level and long-term large-scale research plans with both domestic characteristics and international standards through the combination of records, models and observations. It is suggested that the project "Macro-natural Environment Pattern and Its Evolution Trend in China" be implemented, and a series of internal relations, formation mechanisms and evolution directions, which are not only the characteristics of China but also the main environmental characteristics of the world, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, monsoon climate and marginal basins, should be systematically studied, instead of just participating in international cooperation alone. Once this operation is realized, it will surely achieve breakthrough results in both basic theory and practical application. In addition, in the pre-Cenozoic global changes, foreign countries mainly rely on stable isotope analysis to infer the evolution of the atmosphere and seawater, while China has the advantages of special preservation conditions of chemical groups such as Chengjiang and Jehol. We should combine the paleontological treasure house with stratigraphic geochemical analysis to explore the transformation and life evolution of ancient "ice chamber period" and "warm chamber period" and strive for a major breakthrough.
2. Aiming at the core problems of earth system science, the tracking process and exploration mechanism are studied.
China should take effective measures to organize the forces of microbiology and organic geochemistry and participate in the new frontier research of geo-microbiology and evolutionary genomics. In view of the fact that this interdisciplinary field is still in the initial stage in the world, on the one hand, China should promote the joint exchange and discussion between the two disciplines, on the other hand, it should establish corresponding new laboratories and research institutions, and recruit forces as soon as possible to start preparations.
3. Organize China's "Earth System Science" series, publish collections or albums reflecting the frontiers of science, hold lectures on Earth System Science, and promote interdisciplinary research in China.
4. Concentrate financial resources to build a national platform for the basic conditions of science and technology of the Earth system, and provide all or part of the scientific and technological information of the Earth system enjoyed by the scientific and technological personnel of the Earth system.