The influence of American subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong's economy and its countermeasures
Liang Guiquan, Dean and Researcher of Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences; Meggie Yu, deputy director and researcher of Institute of Modernization, Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences; You Aiqiong, Director of Personnel Department of Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, is a researcher.
Abstract: The impact of American subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong is short-term and long-term. There are positive and negative ones. Facing the crisis, Guangdong should not respond passively, but must profoundly analyze and dialectically grasp risks and opportunities, seek business opportunities in the crisis and seek opportunities in the challenge. Therefore, Guangdong should have two countermeasures: first, strategically deal with the negative impact and risk loss brought by the American subprime mortgage crisis, prepare for risk prevention, and reduce and resolve risks; Second, strategically take advantage of the turning point of the world economic development cycle, strengthen internal capabilities, strive for external potential, strive for new advantages in the next cycle, comprehensively push Guangdong's development to a new level, and open the way for China's economic development in the next cycle.
Keywords:: US subprime mortgage crisis affecting Guangdong countermeasures
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which originated in 2007, and the global economic and financial turmoil caused by it are a foregone conclusion, and the trend and results are still unpredictable. Resolve the crisis, ensure stability, seize opportunities and seek leapfrogging. Guangdong should not only pay attention to the American subprime mortgage crisis and its uncertain trend and outcome, but also pay attention to the deep information and significance conveyed by the incident itself. It is the latter that becomes the starting point of our strategic decision. At present, many scholars and decision makers at home and abroad pay more attention to the event itself, especially the risks and losses that this event may bring; Now it is especially necessary to get rid of the habitual thinking path, emancipate the mind, be far-sighted, face the world and the future, seize the opportunity, form a brand-new strategic judgment and realize comprehensive strategic innovation.
First, the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong.
The impact of American subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong is short-term and long-term; There are positive and negative ones. More importantly, all changes are opportunities, which depends on our judgment of changes and our ability to make use of them. It is necessary to dialectically analyze the impact of American subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong.
positive impact
The positive effect of subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong is mainly a profound warning to Guangdong's economic development model, and also provides a good opportunity for Guangdong's development model innovation.
1. objectively promoted the optimization and upgrading of Guangdong's products and industrial structure.
The changes in the current foreign trade situation are not only a severe test for Guangdong, but also an important opportunity to optimize the structure and change the development mode. Guangdong should use this crisis to re-evaluate the strategy of "earning foreign exchange through export". At present, the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong mainly focuses on the low-end export products with rigid cost and price. This reveals that Guangdong's industries are mostly in the high-risk range of the global industrial chain, and also reveals the limitations of Guangdong's economic structure relying too much on the international market. The warning information of subprime mortgage crisis can prompt Guangdong to reflect on the current development model and path. After several years of adjustment and transformation, Guangdong's export product structure has improved. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, in 2007, the export of high-tech products in Guangdong accounted for 32.79% of the total export value, up 59. 1% year-on-year. From June to May, 2008, although the export of traditional bulk products declined, the export of high-tech products in Guangdong increased by 25. 1%. It can be seen that Guangdong's export products are not bleak under the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, and the impact of the subprime mortgage has tested the effectiveness and direction of Guangdong's product adjustment from the opposite side.
2. Promote the adjustment of the regional structure of Guangdong's export products.
The risk prevention principle of avoiding all eggs concentrated in one basket is reflected in the diversification of trading partners in international trade. The subprime mortgage crisis objectively warned the concentration risk of trading partners and the asymmetry of import and export structure. Judging from the regional adjustment of export products, the decline of Guangdong's exports to the United States under the influence of the subprime mortgage crisis has promoted the growth of exports to other regions. The regional structure of Guangdong's exports from June to June 2008 is as follows: exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 26.8% and 26.4% respectively; Exports to Africa and Latin America increased by 23.4% and 19.8% respectively, while exports to South Korea increased by 63.8%. Exports to India increased 103.3% year on year. A gratifying phenomenon in the adjustment is that some labor-intensive industries and products have also grown through the transfer of export areas. For example, from June 5438 to May 2008, Guangdong furniture exports to the United States decreased by 14.5% year-on-year, but exports to ASEAN doubled year-on-year, so the exports of the whole industry increased by 24.6% year-on-year.
3. The situation of excessive trade surplus has been improved, which has achieved certain results in curbing false trade.
Since 2004, the false trade elements in China's import and export trade have been increasing, mainly in the import and export of miscellaneous goods, machinery and transportation equipment, textiles, rubber, mining and metallurgical products and their products, which has led to an extraordinary explosive growth in the trade surplus of these three categories of products. Guangdong, as the region with the largest export and export balance, has a very prominent problem in this respect. The subprime mortgage crisis and the adjustment of China's export policy have a certain effect on filtering false trade, which can help to make our export composition and trade surplus real and standardized. From June 2008 to June 2008, Guangdong's foreign trade surplus was US$ 5165438+54 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 46.2 percentage points.
In addition, there is another issue that deserves our further consideration. For a long time, Guangdong's industrialization strategy of relying on the secondary industry to maintain rapid economic growth has been hindered by the shortage of resources, soaring costs and prices. Since the second half of 2007, the prices of agricultural and non-agricultural raw materials in Guangdong have risen sharply, and the wrestling between enterprise ex-factory prices and enterprise ex-factory prices has been increasing. According to the survey data of Guangdong National Investigation Corps, the "scissors difference" between the purchase price index of raw materials, fuel and power and the ex-factory price index of industrial products in 2008 is also expanding month by month. The subprime mortgage crisis warns us: How can Guangdong adjust its industrial development strategy to adapt to the new development pattern and new conditions?
negative impact
The negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong's economy is mainly reflected in the following aspects: demand contraction, order reduction, credit increase, price fluctuation, abnormal capital flow, decline in corporate profits and investment motivation, and damage to overseas investment caused by the slowdown of the US economy, broken credit chain and fluctuations in exchange rate and interest rate. According to the analysis data of Guangdong's economic development in 2008 by the Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the province's GDP increased by 10.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 3.6 percentage points. The growth rates of the three major industries and revenues all slowed down, the growth rate of fixed assets investment slowed down, and the losses of industrial enterprises ranked among the top in the country.
1. Impact on exports
The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong's exports is mainly reflected in the year-on-year decline in exports to the United States, the decline in the growth rate of total exports and the decline in the growth rate of trade surplus, which leads to a decline in the pulling force of exports on GDP, and has the greatest impact on labor-intensive traditional commodities such as clothing and plastic products.
Objectively speaking, there are many reasons for the sharp decline of Guangdong's export products. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is only one of the direct factors, and the influencing factors also include national macro-policy regulation and rising costs. These comprehensive factors work together, leading to the production and export of labor-intensive traditional manufacturing and processing industries with rigid cost and price in trouble. However, mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products with economies of scale and scientific and technological content still have good competitiveness.
2. The impact of exchange rate and interest rate changes on prices.
The inflow and outflow of American capital account for one-third and one-fifth of the global total respectively. At the same time, global resource commodities are still priced in dollars, and the pricing power of global commodity futures prices is mainly controlled by investment banks in developed countries. Therefore, the change of its capital flow and the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate directly affect the changes of asset market prices and resource prices. In particular, due to the expectation that the interest rates between China and the United States were further upside down after the US cut interest rates, hot money flowed in, foreign exchange reserves increased, and the US dollar weakened, since the second half of 2007, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has obviously accelerated, and in April 2008, 10 broke seven for the first time. Since the exchange rate reform, the nominal exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 18.5%. On the one hand, the depreciation of the dollar reduces the profit margin of export enterprises; On the other hand, the expectation of dollar depreciation makes international hot money take oil and precious metals as safe havens for capital preservation and appreciation, which leads to a sharp rise in the prices of international commodities (such as mineral resources such as oil).
The rising prices of resource factors have increased the cost pressure of Guangdong's economic development, which is heavily dependent on the import of primary products. The profit margin of enterprises further narrowed, the number of loss-making enterprises increased, and the profit growth rate of enterprises decreased year-on-year. From June to May 2008, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in Guangdong decreased by 44.8 percentage points year-on-year, and more than a quarter of enterprises suffered losses to varying degrees. The number of loss-making enterprises in the province reached 1 1006, and the loss increased by 25.0 percentage points year on year. It is expected that the number of loss-making enterprises will further increase in the second half of 2008. There are many small and medium-sized labor-intensive enterprises among the loss-making enterprises. Judging from the current situation, it is difficult for some cost-sensitive small and medium-sized enterprises to cope with high interest rates and high costs, and the situation of enterprises moving out and closing down will be further aggravated.
3. Other economic impacts
The subprime mortgage crisis will further lead to the break of the credit chain of export enterprises, the loss of overseas investment and the decline of investment motivation of enterprises. The first is the loss of export default. Since 2007, the birthplace of subprime mortgage crisis has become the hardest hit area of overseas commercial accounts. According to the estimation of bad debt rate of the Ministry of Commerce, the total export of Guangdong in 2007 was 369.245 billion US dollars, and the conservatively estimated bad debt amount was about 654.38+0.2 billion to 654.38+0.8 billion US dollars. At present, the penetration rate of export credit insurance to Guangdong's exports is only 654.38+0%, so it is difficult to effectively count the loss data caused by the closure of overseas enterprises in Guangdong due to the subprime mortgage crisis. Second, investment motives and investment profits have declined. As the financial crisis gradually penetrated into the real economy, the global economy entered a downward channel, leading to a decline in investment momentum. According to the statistics of Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, from June to June, 2008, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 454.672 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points. Among them, industrial investment only increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down by 4.7 percentage points.
In addition, the subprime mortgage crisis has also affected Guangdong's overseas investment, including the overseas investment of domestic financial institutions (commercial banks, fund companies, insurance companies, etc.). ) and enterprises. Since August 2007, with the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis, the overseas investment performance of China enterprises has declined rapidly.
(C) the next step to deepen the impact of judgment
How much the subprime mortgage crisis will affect China and Guangdong in the next step, and whether the negative effects have bottomed out depends on three factors: first, the time and depth of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the United States, which is the most basic variable; Second, the depth of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the international economy and international market; Third, the radiation effect of the subprime mortgage crisis and Guangdong's tolerance.
How much impact will the subprime mortgage crisis have on the American economy, and will the United States fall into a strange circle of economic stagnation? At present, there are different opinions on this. The key factor is whether the US real estate market price can be stable and whether the subprime mortgage risk can be controlled from the source. Judging from various comprehensive factors, it is unlikely that the American economy will decline sharply in the short term, but it may enter an adjustment period of slow decline. According to the calculation, China's exports to the United States will decrease by 5%~6% for every decrease in the economic growth rate of the United States 1%. Therefore, it can be predicted that in the second half of 2008 and even in the first half of 2009, the pressure of Guangdong's export growth rate will further increase.
Second, Guangdong's choice to deal with the global economic and financial crisis
Challenges and opportunities, like two sides of a copper coin, always go hand in hand. Any change is an opportunity, and a challenge is a test of the ability to change. The key is how to deal with it. Especially as the province with the highest degree of opening to the outside world in China, Guangdong should not respond passively. It must profoundly analyze and dialectically grasp risks and opportunities, seek business opportunities in crises and seek opportunities in challenges. Therefore, Guangdong should have two countermeasures: first, it should strategically deal with the negative impact and risk loss brought by the American subprime mortgage crisis to Guangdong. Prepare for risk prevention, reduce and resolve risks. Second, strategically take advantage of the turning point of the world economic development cycle, strengthen internal capabilities, strive for external potential, strive for new advantages in the next cycle, comprehensively push Guangdong's development to a new level, and open the way for China's economic development in the next cycle.
(1) Short-term strategic countermeasures: actively prevent and resolve the risk impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on Guangdong's economy and society.
At present, Guangdong's economic development is at a turning point in the adjustment of industrial structure, the transformation of growth mode and the transformation of growth momentum, and it faces a series of contradictions and pressures. At this juncture, we have encountered the outstanding impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the slowdown of world economic growth, the external oscillation brought about by the decline in international market demand, and the intensive introduction of national macro-control policies. To this end, Guangdong must take the initiative to take a series of strategic countermeasures to prevent and resolve possible risks.
1. Pay close attention to the latest situation of global economic and financial development, strengthen follow-up research and take timely countermeasures.
Relevant departments, especially foreign trade management departments, should always pay attention to the latest development of the global financial crisis, as well as the economic trend of the United States and even the world and its impact on China's economy, and keep abreast of relevant dynamic information. At the same time, to further investigate the subprime mortgage crisis and its impact on Guangdong, Guangdong should not only actively respond to the outside world, but also interact with the central government in time to obtain a more favorable macro-policy environment to deal with the crisis. To cope with the unpredictable and uncertain international and domestic economic development situation, Guangdong needs to have advanced research and forecast and comprehensive dynamic macro-supporting policies, especially to strengthen the predictability of policies.
2 timely introduction of emergency measures, enterprise self-help and government policy support.
Although the main body of market selection and development is enterprises, proper government policy support and perfect service can greatly enhance the market development ability of enterprises, especially their ability to cope with crises and difficulties. Facing the credit risk and exchange rate risk brought by the subprime mortgage crisis to enterprises, firstly, enterprises should take flexible measures to seek self-help, and secondly, the government should promptly introduce supporting emergency measures to maintain the stable development of export-oriented economy.
3. Be highly alert to the new round of trade protectionism that may be triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis
At present, international trade protectionism is on the rise, and trade frictions are becoming increasingly complex. Developed countries and regions such as the United States, Europe and Japan frequently use new trade protection means such as technical barriers, intellectual property rights, environmental protection standards and labor standards; Developing countries began to file more lawsuits against China. By the end of 2007, Guangdong * * * had encountered 125 trade protection cases in five countries, involving more than $5 billion, showing a rapid growth trend in the number of cases and the amount involved. In 2008, under the background that the world economic environment is more complicated and the American economy is in turmoil and recession, global trade may continue to decline, triggering a new trend of trade protectionism and leading to an increase in trade frictions. Facing the new trend of international trade protectionism with new standards, new rules and new means, Guangdong needs to speed up its ability to cope.
We should actively cooperate with the implementation of the national win-win opening-up strategy and guide enterprises to actively and effectively adapt to international trade rules. Strengthen self-discipline of enterprises and industries, pay more attention to corporate social responsibility and credit awareness, and maintain normal foreign trade order. Establish and improve the foreign trade early warning system and the risk early warning mechanism of key industries and key products to realize fair trade information exchange and * * *. Strengthen the linkage mechanism between government departments, intermediary organizations and enterprises, mainly chambers of commerce and associations, to achieve orderly, smooth and efficient operation, and promptly respond to and actively prevent various trade frictions such as anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguard measures, special safeguard measures, anti-monopoly and "337" intellectual property investigation initiated from abroad.
4. Appropriately increase infrastructure investment to alleviate the negative impact of the decline in exports caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis on economic growth.
Balanced economic growth is mainly driven by the "troika" of investment, consumption and export. Under the background of crisis transition, the stimulating effect of infrastructure investment on economy can be appropriately increased. Some projects that have been approved to be accelerated can be accelerated; Some mature projects should be started quickly to raise the expectation of investment and market demand. At the same time, we can also accelerate financial innovation and public financial innovation, and accelerate the development of public products and services.
(2) Medium-term strategic countermeasures: turn the crisis into an opportunity and accelerate the pace of adjustment and upgrading.
Crisis, crisis and opportunity come together. We should look at the crisis positively, be good at finding opportunities in the "crisis", be good at turning the crisis into opportunities, seize opportunities and promote change.
1. Accelerate the adjustment of economic development mode and enhance the autonomy and endogenous motivation of development.
On the one hand, the foreign trade-led economic growth model formed in the past 30 years of reform and opening up is conducive to Guangdong's early integration into the global economic system, better utilization of international markets and resources, and bridging the gap between various factors needed for development. On the other hand, it also makes Guangdong's development rely heavily on geography and path, and its autonomy and endogenous development are severely squeezed. In order to cope with the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and future international economic turmoil, Guangdong should strive to take advantage of the cyclical adjustment of the global economy, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and complete the transformation of economic growth mode from relying mainly on investment and export to relying on the coordinated development of consumption, investment and export. From relying mainly on the secondary industry to relying on the coordinated development of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, from relying mainly on increasing the consumption of material resources to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of workers and management innovation. Gradually reduce dependence on external factors and reduce the proportion of exports to GDP, thus reducing the impact of future export decline on Guangdong.
2. Cultivate new production factors and jump out of the "comparative advantage trap" of open economic development.
In the new era when the global industrial division of labor is intensifying and the international production network is expanding rapidly, the difference of factor endowments that determine the international division of labor has changed from natural resources to new intangible production factors composed of human resources, innovation ability, industrial facilities, systems and culture. The status of factor resources, especially innovation ability and level, has become an important prerequisite to determine the status of a country or region in the international industrial division of labor. The third international industrial transfer is different from the previous two, which mainly pursue the low-cost advantages of labor, land and other material resources, while the new round of international industrial division pays more attention to the comprehensive knowledge advantages of the host country's technology, talents, research and development capabilities, information infrastructure and institutional conditions, which is also an important reason why the capital flow between developed countries still occupies a dominant position in the new round of international industrial transfer. Although the investment cost of EU and US is much higher than that of developing countries, their strong innovation ability and perfect market mechanism still attract most high-end international capital.
The shortage of new production factors makes Guangdong's comparative advantage factors in the international division of labor still be traditional material factors such as labor and land. On the one hand, Guangdong falls into the "comparative advantage trap" of regional open economy development, and cannot effectively achieve the fundamental purpose of promoting local industrial upgrading and technological progress by introducing industries and technologies; On the other hand, the "shortage of migrant workers", the shortage of land and the exhaustion of other resources also make Guangdong's extensive growth model with resource-labor intensity as the core unsustainable.
Therefore, when Guangdong participates in the international division of labor, it can not easily lose its comparative advantage, but also pay attention to the cultivation of new production factors, especially innovative advantages. Through technological innovation, institutional innovation, management innovation and the development of local human capital, especially entrepreneurs and other senior human capital, new competitive advantages will be formed, so that Guangdong's open economy development can jump out of the "comparative advantage trap" as soon as possible and enhance its ability to cope with international risks.
3. Go to the high end and break the pattern that the low-end position in the international industrial chain is becoming more and more solidified.
Under the background of globalization, international competition is especially manifested in regional competition in international industrial chain and international value chain. In the era of knowledge economy, the upstream industry controls the downstream industry, the intangible production controls the tangible production, the service dominates the production, and the countries with strong knowledge and technological innovation ability control the countries with weak knowledge and technological innovation ability. Now, multinational companies choose Guangdong to undertake the role of processing factory in their global industrial division of labor system, making Guangdong a "world manufacturing base". However, this manufacturing base with "technology outside, capital outside, market outside and production inside" is, in a sense, a collection of various production workshops around the world. However, in the development of export-oriented economy, Guangdong often only passively undertakes international industrial transfer, and fails to really solve the problem of the combination of introduction, digestion and innovation, and the long-term serious external dependence on core technologies, key components, marketing channels and business processes. Therefore, Guangdong's industry is locked in the low end of the international industrial chain.
In the future, the optimization and upgrading of Guangdong's industrial structure must promote independent innovation while undertaking international industrial transfer, and strive to extend from low-end processing and assembly to upstream, especially to high-end manufacturing, to key parts production and equipment manufacturing with higher capital and technology intensity, and to all kinds of producer services downstream, so as to realize high-end leap to industrial chain and value chain, form an industrial pattern of benign interaction among high-end service industry, advanced manufacturing industry and high-tech industry, and enhance Guangdong's competitive advantage in the international industrial chain.
4. Give the market diversification strategy a new era connotation and build a reasonable global market layout.
Since the end of the 20th century, Guangdong began to implement the strategy of market diversification, and achieved certain results, but the pattern of over-reliance on European and American markets, especially the American market, has not been fundamentally changed. The global financial and economic turmoil triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis may accelerate Guangdong's market diversification strategy. In the future, Guangdong's international market diversification strategy should be further adjusted from connotation orientation to ideas and measures, and given a new era connotation.
First of all, a new layout of Guangdong's global market strategy is formed according to four levels, and diversified development countermeasures are adopted. First, consolidate development and deeply explore the basic markets of developed countries and regions. Second, intensify efforts to consolidate and develop markets in neighboring countries and regions. Third, develop emerging big markets selectively and step by step, such as Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Poland, Turkey and South Africa. Emerging markets are important strategic markets in our province. The fourth is to pay attention to and study the immature potential market and strive to expand new markets. Guangdong has a complete range of industries, huge processing supporting capacity, overcapacity in some industries and abundant labor resources. As long as we let go of the policy, encourage enterprises to go abroad and give appropriate help, we can also find opportunities in immature markets.
Secondly, enhance the ability of enterprises to explore the international market. Enterprises are the main body to explore the international market. In the coming period, Guangdong should focus on improving the competitiveness of enterprises in the international market by mainly relying on government financial support and preferential policies, and move from "world factory" to "world market" to fundamentally solve the problem of autonomy in the international market. At the same time, give full play to the role of the government in diplomacy and politics, create a good international environment for enterprises to expand their markets, and help enterprises to remove various obstacles encountered in opening up the international market, such as trade discrimination, violation of laws and regulations, and infringement of the interests of owners. Provide effective business information and legal aid services for enterprises.
Third, pay attention to the integration of trade promotion resources and build a trade promotion system. Draw lessons from the experience of major developed countries, and build a trade promotion system composed of trade decision-making departments and management departments, government trade promotion agencies and non-governmental trade promotion agencies. The main responsibilities of trade decision-making departments and administrative departments are to implement national policies according to law; Trade promotion agencies mainly undertake tasks such as enterprise training and enterprise consultation; Non-governmental organizations operate according to market demand and rules.
5. Accelerate the development of the domestic market and enhance the competitiveness of Guangdong in the domestic market.
The development of domestic demand market can not only make up for the demand gap caused by the shrinking external demand market, but also become an important support for Guangdong's economic development. In recent years, the state has been committed to implementing the strategic policy of expanding domestic demand, the development of the central and western regions and the northeast region has been accelerated, and the Pan-Pearl River Delta regional cooperation has been smoothly promoted, which has created favorable conditions for Guangdong to explore the domestic market. Guangdong should cope with the rapid development of industrialization in the second and third gradient areas of the mainland, especially in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region, give full play to the regional advantages of two markets, two resources, two divisions of labor and joint regions, and expand the industrial division and cooperation between regions on a large scale.
6. Adjust and optimize the structure of import and export products to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of foreign trade.
Actively and reasonably expand imports. We should make full use of the opportunity of the decline in mineral resources prices brought about by this crisis and actively participate in the allocation and effective utilization of global resources. According to the actual situation in Guangdong, the Catalogue of Technologies and Products Encouraged by the State shall be implemented to increase import trade. First, encourage the introduction of advanced technology. The second is to encourage the import of important equipment. The third is to encourage the development of key industries, such as clean energy power generation equipment and manufacturing. The fourth is to expand the import of important resource products and raw materials.
Adjust the structure of export commodities and realize the transformation from "Made in Guangdong" to "Quality in Guangdong". Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, although Guangdong's exports have declined, not all products have declined, but the exports of high-tech products have risen instead of falling, indicating that Guangdong's foreign trade exports need to accelerate to the high end. At the same time, it also shows that product quality is the core foundation of enterprise competition, and only products with excellent quality can be truly invincible in the international market.
Guangdong and Hong Kong jointly promoted the transformation and upgrading of processing trade enterprises and "bundled" to cope with the crisis. At present, only large processing trade enterprises have the ability to improve the design and manufacturing level to meet the challenge of transformation and upgrading, while most small and medium-sized enterprises can't cope with it due to the limitations of manpower and funds. Coupled with the superposition of multiple factors in the business environment in recent years, the production cost has been further pushed up, and the resources that enterprises can use for transformation and upgrading are even scarcer. In this context, Guangdong and Hong Kong should make joint efforts from the government to enterprises to accelerate the industrial upgrading of these enterprises. Guangdong and Hong Kong can jointly set up research and development funds and technical equipment renewal funds to support enterprises to develop new products and adopt new technologies. We can consider setting up a bonded park in Guangdong Province to help manufacturers solve the problem of paying tariffs and deposits for imported raw materials and ensure the smooth capital turnover of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, it is suggested that the government introduce industrial subsidies and give appropriate support in financing and taxation; Introduce a tariff reduction and exemption policy for imported equipment to promote enterprises to use more advanced equipment and improve the level of production technology.
7. Combine "bringing in" and "going out" to promote the coordinated development of "three foreign countries".
On the one hand, the subprime mortgage crisis has relatively little impact on large foreign companies and standardized financial companies. Faced with unprecedented investment opportunities in China, large foreign companies may increase the proportion of investment in Chinese industries; On the other hand, the subprime mortgage crisis caused the real estate price to fall and the financial assets in overseas markets to shrink, which provided an opportunity for Guangdong to implement the strategy of "bringing in and going out". We should seize the opportunity, establish and implement a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable concept of foreign trade and economic development, and promote the coordinated development of Sanyo.
(c) Long-term strategic countermeasures: seize the strategic opportunity provided by the subprime mortgage crisis and strive for new development and transcendence.
The development of China, including Guangdong, belongs to exogenous modernization, which includes the dual tasks of catching up with western developed modernization and innovation and surpassing western modernization. The revival of the Chinese nation in the 2 1 century is bound to catch up with western modernization. Without transcendence, it is difficult to revive. 19th century is the century of Britain, surpassing China after the prosperous period of Kanggan; The 20th century is the century of America, surpassing the old Britain and France. 2 1 century will probably be the century of China's revival, and it will certainly surpass the west, especially the United States. Judging from the history of the rise and fall of modern world powers, every new wave of development and every major crisis caused by industrial and technological revolution has become a major opportunity for late-developing countries to catch up and leapfrog. Although the United States and the West are unlikely to have a full-scale recession, the low-speed oscillation between the two development cycles is likely to last for some time. On the contrary, China is relatively backward in economy, stable in politics and society, and still has great development potential and space. Therefore, under the shadow of the American subprime mortgage crisis, Guangdong should not only consider how to prevent and resolve the negative impact of the American subprime mortgage crisis and reduce losses, but also examine the historical opportunities and our strategic choices provided by the American subprime mortgage crisis from a global perspective and a modern holographic perspective. Guangdong, in particular, should shoulder the responsibility of being the main province to enhance China's international competitiveness, and should be the "duck prophet on the riverside" to take the lead in seizing the opportunity.
First, according to the development trends of the two major international and domestic economic systems, Guangdong has made a clear forward-looking strategic judgment and strategic positioning. Second, under the guidance of Scientific Outlook on Development, we should promote the strategy of economic internationalization and realize the transformation from passively accepting international industrial division of labor to independently participating in international division of labor. The third is to promote technological innovation and business model innovation, change the mode of wealth production, cultivate local economic entities, and fully cultivate the ability of independent development. The fourth is to continue to promote institutional innovation.