In this paper, the sampling time is from July, 20 14 to June, 20 15, that is, the last bull-bear cycle, and the transaction data of 40 million non-institutional (individual) accounts are collected and divided into four groups according to the amount of funds:
WG 1: Account fund < 500,000 yuan.
WG2: The account funds are between 500,000 and 3 million.
WG3: The account funds are between 3 million and100000.
WG4: account fund >100,000 yuan.
Among them, WG 1 group has the largest number of people, accounting for 84.9% of the total sample, WG2 group accounts for 12.6%, WG3 group accounts for 1.9%, and WG4 group accounts for 0.5%. In other words, the number of small scattered people is about 170 times that of large scattered people.
However, from the perspective of capital weight, the shares held by small groups only account for 5.9% of the total market value, while those held by large groups account for 7.8%, which means that the personal wealth gap is 224.8 times that of small groups. Suppose you hold 654.38+10,000 yuan of stocks, and the corresponding big family is 22.48 million yuan of stocks.
The above is the sample analysis, and the following is the core part of play.
During the boom, 0.5% families with the highest income entered the stock market, while 85% individuals with the lowest income reduced their stocks. Shortly after the peak period, the rich quickly withdrew from the market, selling some shares to smaller individual retail investors and the other to enterprises. As shown in figure 1, the cumulative current trading volume of personal investment.
Take buy-and-hold investors with the same initial holdings as an example. From July 20 14 to February 20 15, 85% investors with the lowest income lost more than 250 billion RMB, while 0.5% households with the highest income gained as much as 254 billion RMB during the period of 18. See figure 2. Cumulative investment income of current transaction.
Compared with the initial equity wealth in June of 20 14, during the period of 18, the accumulated income generated by the flow made the bottom population lose 28% of the funds, while the richest people gained 3 1% of the income.
On the other hand, in the bear market, people generally pretend to be dead, the transaction liquidity is very low, and the redistribution of wealth is one order of magnitude smaller than that in the bull market. Before June, 20 14, in the arbitrary 18 months of two and a half years, the income of large households was as high as RMB 2 10 billion, which means that their wealth only increased by 3%, and correspondingly, small households only lost about 3%.
In the bull market, retail investors only accounted for 25% of the market value, but contributed 90% of the trading volume, resulting in a loss of nearly 30%.
To sum up, retail investors entered the market at the wrong time, chasing up and killing down, and intraday trading are the root causes of losses in the bull market.
The article also gives a more heartfelt conclusion:
The difference of family investment skills dominates the wealth redistribution phenomenon in the sample. Only in the bear market, the transaction liquidity is low, and this difference is not obvious, while in the bull market, the transaction volume has doubled, which leads to a significant amplification of this difference.
The transactions made by the bottom 85% families have seriously shrunk their stock returns, while the top 0.5% families can always make correct predictions. In the bubble-filled financial market, if the poor and financially nervous groups blindly invest in Soho, the already meager assets will shrink again.
Pichetti reached a similar conclusion in his best-selling book Capital in the Twentieth Century (2 1):
This is the Matthew effect of wealth distribution. China called robbing the poor to help the rich: let the poor have nothing and let the rich get more. In the theory of liberal capitalism, this is called comparative advantage. Everyone does what he is good at, thus forming the optimal solution of profit distribution. The rich are good at making money, and the poor are good at losing money, each with its own position.
It sounds cruel, but this is the reality. Every penny you earn in the stock market is the realization of your cognitive ability. Therefore, improving financial quotient and increasing financial management skills is a long-term lesson for each of us.
Back to A shares, many people are concerned about where the top is. From the perspective of GDP securitization rate (total market value of A shares /GDP), the big bull markets in 2007 and 20 15 both exceeded120%; At present, the GDP securitization rate is only over 70%, and there is a theoretical increase of 50-70%, corresponding to 4850-5800 points. Take a middle value, 5300 points is the alarm position, and you can consider leaving.
I think there are two main lines of investment opportunities in the next stage: one is the net profit gap, and the other is technology > consumption = medicine.
After the heavyweights open up the valuation space, the flexibility of technology stocks will become very great, because there is no uniform standard for the valuation of technology stocks, unlike consumption and medicine, which is suitable for reference by price-earnings ratio. For example, market value/earnings before interest and tax (EV/EBITDA) is suitable for IDC computer rooms and heavy asset manufacturing technology stocks with high depreciation expenses; Software stocks, cloud computing, etc. With R&D, EV/Sales should pay attention to the front expenses.
But the valuation center of technology stocks also depends on the prosperity of the industry. When the trend is upward, it depends entirely on the risk preference of funds, and the valuation flexibility will be very large. For example, the 5G application track has broad prospects, and many spaces are unimaginable now. Is the marketing rate of cloud computing 10 or 20 times appropriate? This can't be calculated accurately, but the stock price can be doubled.
Therefore, there are also stock selection schemes: in the sectors of technology, consumption and medicine, choose the net profit fault, or the subdivided track with high prosperity in the next 2-3 years, such as cloud computing, cloud games, fruit chain consumer electronics and new energy vehicles; Then choose 1-2 leading enterprises with stories, lie still after buying, and cover up the stocks.
After all, in the bull market, the only reason for losses is chasing up and down and frequent operations. If you can accurately avoid every rise and eat every fall by strength, there is a position called "anti-finger trader", and the salary in the bull market is very high. You can consider applying to make up for your losses in the stock market.
A thousand words: early entry benefits early.