According to the statistics of Dongguan Real Estate Registration Center, during the week from March 8 to 14, 290 sets of new commercial residential buildings were signed online in Dongguan, a sharp decrease of 45. 1% from the previous month. Times Weekly reporter found that since Dongguan upgraded the regulation of the property market on February 27th, the transaction volume of first-hand houses has maintained a double-digit level for 10 consecutive days.
Watchmaking: Liu
In the early morning of February 27th, Dongguan issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Regulation of the Real Estate Market (hereinafter referred to as "Six Thousand Articles"). On March 15, officials of Dongguan Housing and Construction Bureau gave policy answers on "Dongguan Six Articles", including how to determine that the transactions in transit before the New Deal were valid and how to understand "new households buy the first commercial house".
Once the policy control was released, the effect immediately appeared, and the number of online signings that were originally in an upward state after the holiday began to turn around. In the first two weeks of March, the number of first-hand residential online signings in Dongguan continued to decline, and the number of second-hand housing transactions also gradually decreased.
Source: Leyoujia, Dongguan Real Estate Registration Center
Source: Leyoujia, Dongguan Real Estate Registration Center
"After the introduction of regulatory policies, the overall property market in Dongguan showed a cooling trend, and the transaction volume continued to decrease." Jaco, deputy director of Anjuke Research Institute, told Times Weekly that more importantly, the market supply was significantly reduced, and some projects were postponed to enter the market, further increasing the decline in transaction volume.
Yan Yuejin, director of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the conservative performance of the transaction data in March is not only affected by regulatory policies. "Before the credit policy is tightened, some buyers may trade in advance."
Buying a house is no longer lively.
A direct impact of the obvious cooling of the property market in Dongguan is that the WeChat group composed of local buyers is no longer lively-in a group of buyers joined by Time Weekly reporters, there are less than 30 half-day chat messages.
Occasionally someone asks in the group: "Is the house in Dongguan suitable for starting now?" Intermediaries who used to enthusiastically solicit business stopped chatting, and some group friends didn't reply until half an hour later. "Look again, it may be temporary now."
In the past, it was ineffective to "buy early and earn early, but only go up and not fall". According to Anjuke's data, the unit price of first-hand housing in Dongguan has been stagnant since it rose to 296 12 yuan in June, and it still remains at 296 12 yuan.
Source: Anjuke
Second-hand houses in Dongguan are also cold. As of March 16, the average listing price of second-hand houses in Dongguan has dropped to 19667 yuan/square meter. This is the first time that the average listing price of second-hand houses in Dongguan has dropped since May 2020.
Source: Anjuke
Times Weekly reporter found that the areas where the average listing price of second-hand houses in Dongguan dropped were Fenggang, Houjie, Da Lang and Shijie. Among them, Da Lang experienced the biggest decline, with a decrease of 3. 14% from the previous month.
These areas are also areas with large price increases before, and they are all near-deep areas. On February 25th, two days before the promulgation of "Dongguan Six Articles", the second-hand houses in Shijie and Da Lang led the growth of Dongguan by 6.96% and 6.48% respectively.
"The' Six Thousand Articles' has somewhat affected the enthusiasm for buying a house, and it is not very friendly to foreign buyers." Li Hui (pseudonym), a real estate agent in Dongguan, told Times Weekly that among the buyers in Linshen Town, there are many from Shenzhen.
"Wanliutiao" is regulated from six aspects: adjusting the limited purchase period of commercial housing and strengthening the financial management of real estate. According to the interpretation of the "Dongguan Six Articles" policy issued by Dongguan Housing and Construction Bureau on March 15, if a resident family has no house in Dongguan, but has a house in Shenzhen and the housing loan has not been settled, the down payment ratio for buying a house in Dongguan shall not be less than 50%.
Housing demand in Shenzhen will push up housing prices in Dongguan.
House prices in Dongguan have gone up by 10 months.
Since May 2020, the average listing price of local second-hand houses has increased from 1.6 million yuan to 1.89 million yuan, an increase of 1.8%. This means that in the past 10 months, the average second-hand house in Dongguan has increased by nearly 3,000 yuan per square meter.
According to the data of Dongguan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center, by the end of 65438+February 2020, the inventory of new houses in Dongguan was 24,300 sets, and the inventory destocking cycle was 3.6 months, less than 4 months beyond the Seventh Cheng Zhen Street, and the inventory destocking cycle was relatively low. According to the data of CRIC China real estate decision-making consultation system, the de-urbanization cycle of second-and third-tier cities in China is basically stable at 1 1- 12 months.
Houses are in short supply, and developers are also trying their best to "enter" Dongguan enclosure, and high premium auctions are frequent.
65438+1October 19, the plot of Zhou Nan Village in Mayong, Dongguan, attracted nearly 70 housing enterprises; 65438+1On October 22nd, Fenggang plot was sold at a unit price of 2402 1 yuan, with a premium rate of nearly 78%. On March 16, a commercial and residential plot with an area of nearly 65,438+10,000 square meters in Humen was cut down by real estate enterprises, with a total price of 3.2 billion yuan, excluding facilities and commerce, which is equivalent to a saleable floor price of 28,797 yuan/m2, setting a new floor price record in Dongguan.
"If the market supply remains low for a long time, the transaction volume will be difficult to increase, but it will easily lead to a contradiction between supply and demand." Jaco thinks.
At present, Dongguan is committed to solving the problem of insufficient land supply.
On June 2nd, 65438+ 10/kloc-0, Dongguan issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Planning Scheme of Land Reserve in Dongguan, which mentioned that in 2026 1, the estimated supplier residence in Dongguan is 3.296 million square meters, which is 2190,000 square meters more than that sold by Dongguan Tupai in 2020.
After the "Dongguan Six Articles", will the Dongguan property market continue to be cold?
Yan Yuejin believes that the duration of cooling in Dongguan property market will not be too long. "Because Shenzhen's housing purchase policy is relatively tight, the demand for housing purchase in Shenzhen will still spill over to Dongguan, driving up housing prices in Dongguan."
"Ensuring market supply and effectively supervising housing prices are conducive to the smooth operation of the market. Therefore, the subsequent market changes in Dongguan depend on market supply and demand and policy implementation. " Jaco said.