China Net | Time: February 5, 2006 | Article Source: Guangming Watch
Summary of China Seminar on Population and Economic Development (Ⅱ)
65438+On February 24th, 2005, the seminar "China's Population and Economic Development-Economists Talk about Population Issues" was held in China Economic Research Center of Peking University. The meeting discussed the changing trend of China's population in the future and its impact on economic development, and put forward relevant policy suggestions. This bulletin reports the second topic, "China's aging population, three rural issues and economic and social development".
1990 fertility level in China and its future influence.
Guo Zhigang (Peking University Sociology Department)
Demographic data mainly come from the annual population sampling survey published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the fertility survey conducted by the National Family Planning Commission 1993, and the surveys conducted by 1997 and 200 1 year. Three surveys basically show that the fertility rate continued to decline in the 1990s. According to the data of the 2000 census, the total fertility rate dropped from a high level of 1990 to 1.23 in 2000. Looking at the number of children, the total fertility rate of one child decreased slightly; The total fertility rate of two children and three children has been declining in the 1990s, and the total fertility rate of three children has dropped to a very low level. Considering a longer period of time, the lifetime fertility rate dropped from six children in the 1970s to 2: 00 in the early 1980s. There was no obvious decline in the 1980 s; There was a new round of decline in the 1990s.
The decline of fertility rate is influenced by the age of marriage and childbearing, and the delay of childbearing age will make the fertility rate decline in a certain period of time. If the number of children is not divided, the childbearing age in the 1990 s has not changed much. If you divide by the number of children, the childbearing age of one child, two children and three children will rise. Excluding the influence of the delay of childbearing age on the total fertility rate, the calculated total fertility rate is an estimate of the lifetime fertility rate, which we call "the total fertility rate without progressive effect" The adjusted TFR is 0.2-0.3 higher than that calculated by conventional methods. After adjustment, the total fertility rate in 2000 rose from 65438 0.25 to about 65438 0.6.
Compared with other areas, the areas with low fertility level mainly include Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and some provincial capitals, as well as Jiangsu, Sichuan and other areas that have implemented the one-child policy in the whole province (including rural areas). China's birth policy is based on local conditions, not a unified one-child policy. The eastern part is stricter, the central and western parts are looser, there are many ethnic minority areas in the west, and some places even have no birth policy.
The current birth policy is divided into one-child policy (one-child policy), one-and-a-half-child policy (the first child is that girls can have a second child), two-child policy (mainly in underdeveloped rural areas) and three-child policy (ethnic minority areas). The proportion of population with different birth policies is: more than one third of the one-child policy, more than 50% of the one-and-a-half-child policy, about 10% of the two-child policy, and the proportion of the three-child policy is very small. The policy of sharing one and a half children equally is to have one child and two children. Finally, it is concluded that the population of one child accounts for 63%, two children account for more than one third, and three children are ignored. The national average birth rate is 1.47 children.
If 1990 census is taken as the base, assuming that the total fertility rate drops from 2.00 in the early 1990s to 1.47 required by the policy in 2005, the simulated total population in 2000 is126.7 billion, which is higher than the census data. According to the official total fertility rate 1.8 in 2000 (instead of 1.6), it will be higher and the proportion of children will increase.
Different schemes can be chosen for population policy. The lower limit scheme is that the current birth policy will remain unchanged for a long time, in which the open couples (both of whom are only children) are considered; The ceiling plan is to allow all couples to have two children in one step. There are many schemes to choose different conditions and gradually open up two children.
The current birth policy is the most stable for a long time, with the lowest total population; Opening in one step is more dangerous. In 2005, the birth population rose from140,000 to 33 million, and the highest population exceeded1600 million. The level of aging, by 2070, under the one-step opening policy, the proportion of elderly people over 65 is low, less than 20%; The current policy remains unchanged, and this ratio is relatively high, reaching 28%. If the current policy remains unchanged, the proportion of 60-year-old women who have only one child will exceed 50%; One-step opening-up policy will be lower. For the working-age population, the one-step open policy will rise first and then fall; If the current policy remains unchanged, it will drop sharply, by 200 million in more than 20 years.
One-step opening will lead to a birth crisis and the total population will be too large. If the current policy remains unchanged for a long time, it will bring other risks, such as the rapid decline of working-age population, the acceleration of aging, and the excessive number of only-child families. Therefore, it is necessary to have a transition period, make a comparative analysis from the perspective of economics and sociology, and conduct detailed investigations and experiments. Although the current birth policy has considered opening two children or even two children alone, it is not enough to complete the whole transition, and an intermediate convergence process is needed.
Rural development, labor migration and social security
Fan Gang (National Economic Research Institute of China Reform Foundation)
The essence of "agriculture, countryside and farmers" is the problem of farmers, and the way out is to transfer the vast majority of farmers, which is the basis of modernization and economic development. China needs to reduce the agricultural labor force to below 10%, while South Korea is currently below 10%, Japan is 5%, the United States is 1.7%, and France is 2.3%. Under the current social security system, farmers have no insurance, and only when they enter cities, industries and non-agricultural industries can they enter social security (although there are some cooperative social security systems in rural areas). It is young people who move from rural areas to non-agricultural industries, which means that the population is aging and the social security system may be younger. According to the population peak of 65.438+04 billion, when the agricultural population drops to 654.38+00%, it is necessary to transfer 200-250 million rural population. At present, non-agricultural employment is increasing by 9-100000 every year, of which 3-4 million are from cities and only 6-7 million are from rural areas. At this rate, it will take at least 20 to 30 years.
The key problem now is that farmers who have entered the city have not joined social security, which has become the core problem of aging. The mobility of farmers in cities is very strong, and the overall rate of social security system is very low. Farmers can't take it away after joining social security, and they lack the motivation to join social security. Therefore, the proportion of migrant workers joining social security is very low, which has caused two problems, one is their own pension, and the other is that no one pays for the social security system. Therefore, the first problem now is that while improving the overall planning level, we should implement some excessive measures to let new migrant workers join the social security as much as possible, which is beneficial to the future of migrant workers and the whole system.
Another problem is the problem of providing for the elderly left behind in rural areas. On the one hand, it is necessary to encourage migrant workers to transfer some funds to rural areas by continuing to promote national culture, on the other hand, it is necessary for the government to invest in rural old-age cooperation. Other policy issues include how to let landless farmers use part of land compensation to buy social security, build commercial insurance models, insurance policies and insurance products, and let migrant workers buy some commercial insurance for their parents.
The problem of agriculture, countryside and farmers is concerned by the society because of the low growth of farmers' income level and the widening income distribution gap. The current income pattern in China is inverted T-shaped, and 80% of the workers belong to the low-income class. Half of them are transferred from rural areas to become blue-collar workers, with an average annual salary of about 8,000 yuan; The other half are farmers now, with an average annual income of about 3,000 yuan. GDP growth is mainly reflected in the income growth of 20% people, and the income growth of migrant workers and farmers is slow. Only when farmers moved to non-agricultural industries did it rise from 3,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan. Because 30% of the labor force is waiting to be transferred from the countryside, the competitive pressure in the labor market makes it impossible for these people to increase their wages. Only when full employment is achieved can the wages of these people rise. It will take twenty or thirty years for the rural population to move below 10%, and it will take longer if it is1600 million.
If we rely on the growth of demographic dividend, social contradictions cannot be solved, and the gap in social income distribution cannot be reversed, there will be greater risks. Internationally, due to the large income gap between Latin America and India, various subsidies, social movements, fiscal deficits, foreign debts, inflation and financial crises have brought the economy to a standstill. In contrast, the risk of losing the demographic dividend is relatively small. To choose between aging and full employment, we would rather face the problem of aging than underemployment.
Population aging, soft landing of two-child late childbirth policy and economic and social development
Ceng Yi (China Center for Economic Research, Peking University)
In 2000, the total fertility rate was 1.22. If 25% of the total fertility rate is omitted, it is actually 1.62. If the current policy remains unchanged for a long time, the total fertility rate will increase to 1.7 assuming that the effect of rising childbearing age will be lost after 20 12 years. The soft landing scheme for the second child with late childbearing assumes a smooth transition to 20 12, with the lifetime fertility rate of 1.8 in urban areas and 2.27 in rural areas.
Keep the current policy unchanged for a long time, with a total population of 65.438+0.26 billion in 2050; In 2050, the total population will be 65.438+46 billion. Keep the current policy unchanged for a long time, reaching a peak of140.5 billion in 2025; The second child made a soft landing in the later period, reaching a peak of 65.438+0.48 billion in 2038. If the current policy remains unchanged for a long time, the population growth rate after 2050 will be-1- 1.3%.
Keeping the current policy unchanged, the proportion of the elderly population and the proportion of elderly people living alone is much higher than that of the two-child late childbirth soft landing, and the gap will widen sharply after 2030. The current policy remains unchanged. In 2050, the population aged 65 will account for 28%, in 2080, it will account for 38.6%, and over 80 will account for 9%. 17.6%. The high proportion of elderly people and elderly people living alone will have a negative impact on society, and it should be a smooth transition to two-child late childbirth.
The working-age population of the two schemes is very different after 2030. Keep the current birth policy unchanged for a long time. From 2030 to 2080, the working-age population will decrease by 65.438+0 billion every 654.38+00 years. Late childbirth and soft landing of two children will increase by 26 million, 65.438+0 billion and 274 million respectively in 2030, 2050 and 2080. The sharp decline in the working-age population may not be a good thing. Excessive working-age population will increase employment pressure. Please discuss the relationship between economists and demographers.
The sex ratio of the population born in the one-child policy area is 124, and the sex ratio of the population born in the two-child policy area is 109. The one-child-and-a-half policy actually produces psychological suggestion-oriented effect, leading to gender imbalance; The soft landing of the second child has no such psychological guidance and negative influence. There is a big difference between the two plans in the proportion of married women and married men aged 20-49. Keeping the current policy unchanged for a long time will bring many social problems.
In 2030-2050-2080, the total population of the current policy unchanged plan is 78.4 million, which is 6543.8+96 million less than the soft landing of two children with late childbearing, and 420 million less. The reduced population is basically labor resources. Only after 2060, a small part of the reduced population is the elderly population. It is not appropriate to keep the current policy unchanged for a long time, which will lead to the reduction of labor resources by 654.38+0 billion every ten years.
Because the government needs to spend huge financial expenditure to provide old-age subsidies for rural family planning families, if the current policy remains unchanged, this financial expenditure will increase substantially. If the soft landing of two children is implemented, this fiscal expenditure will reach a peak of 7.2 billion in 20021year, and then decline rapidly, and it will be almost zero in 2050. Assuming that the annual pension received by family planning families in 600 yuan remains unchanged and the current policy remains unchanged, it will cost 500 billion more than the soft landing of having two children later. With the improvement of living standards and subsidy standards, the financial expenditure will greatly exceed 500 billion.
In the current policy, it is acceptable for rural one-child families and two-child families or single couples to have two children as a temporary transitional measure, but as a long-term policy adjustment plan, there will be some problems. One-child families in rural areas will have psychological suggestion effect. Boys are worth twice as much as girls, which will increase the sex ratio. Having two children requires indicators, and there may be indicators or even false certificates. A single couple needs to raise four parents and two children, and the dependency ratio is 3: 1. Non-single couples are only allowed to have one child to raise two elderly parents, and the dependency ratio is 1.5. There is a question of fairness. Urban double-family households are mostly old urban households, while non-double-family households are mostly new rural households. The current policy may artificially strengthen social stratification, with old households getting married and new households getting married. Marrying a child who is not an independent child may lead to family conflicts because he cannot have two children.
comment
Yu Xuejun (Department of Politics and Law, National Population and Family Planning Commission)
Professor Guo Zhigang compares different schemes from the perspective of population development and tends to adjust the population policy. China's population development has great inertia, long period and irreversibility, so population policy planning should be forward-looking. In the past, the negative effects of overpopulation were overemphasized, and the comparative advantages of population and the negative effects of reducing population were not studied enough.
Professor Fan Gang demonstrated from the perspective of social equity that there is no need for too many people, and put forward the role of solving the problem of migrant workers, especially social security and labor transfer, in economic development. Solving the problem of migrant workers and letting farmers move out of the countryside is an effective way to solve the population problem and the three rural issues and promote the rational allocation of human resources. This work depends on both the government and the market. Market signals tell people where to go, and the government creates an environment for people to move where they should go.
Professor Ceng Yi demonstrated the consequences of different policies in detail, and suggested the implementation of late childbearing policy. Explain that any public policy has advantages and disadvantages. Policymakers should always pay attention to the effect of policies and make policy adjustments according to the changing situation.
The degree of population aging mainly depends on three factors: fertility level, life expectancy and population migration. International migration is neglected; Domestic population migration does not change the aging degree of the whole country; The higher the life expectancy per capita, the better, but the increase of life expectancy per capita will deepen the aging of the population; To solve the problem of population aging, the only variable that can be regulated is to have more children. The peak population difference under different policy schemes is1-200 million.
Everyone's discussion on the population problem mainly includes four issues: having a population of1-200 million has many costs, including environmental pressure, economic development, employment, social security, social equity and so on. , extremely light and heavy; If the social security system remains unchanged, can the extra1-200 million people effectively alleviate the risks brought by the aging population? Suppose we control the birth of1-200 million children, where will they be born, whether they will get a good education and whether they can find a job; Is anyone willing to pay1-200 million more?
In the past, the decline of fertility level in China mainly depended on family planning. Today, the fertility level is declining, and more are unplanned factors, including the change of people's concept of fertility, the increase of marriage and childbearing age, the acceleration of population mobility, the acceleration of urbanization, the improvement of living standards, the rapid rise of childcare costs, the decline of benefits, the decline of the proportion of married people, the increase of divorce rate, the increase of competitive pressure and the increase of infertility.
Population issues include fertility, structure, quality and distribution. At present, China has entered a low fertility level, and the downward trend has not stopped. The importance of fertility level is gradually declining, and population quality, population structure and population distribution are the big problems.
talk
Fan Gang (National Economic Research Institute of China Reform Foundation):
China's comparative advantage will not be completely lost after the reduction of labor force and full employment in the future. If 654.38+04 billion people are fully employed in 2030, China's per capita GDP will be 5-6 thousand dollars, which is still far from the international level of 40 thousand dollars. The next stage of development should rely on improving productivity to support economic growth and old-age care.
Wu Cangping (Population and Development Research Center of China Renmin University):
The government faces three problems: aging, unemployment and the sustainable development of China. The employment problem is more serious than the aging problem. Solving the unemployment problem is also solving the problem of aging. At present, the focus of social security should be young and middle-aged migrant workers and urban population, and solving their employment will also benefit the elderly.
Zhao (Peking University Economic Research Center):
The instability in Latin American countries is related to the birth rate. In a country with a large population, the unemployment rate is not necessarily high. If the population policy is relaxed, the number of people with relatively high skills will increase, because the original only child is mainly distributed in cities and relatively developed rural areas. It is unfair to use migrant workers to participate in social security to solve urban social security, and at the same time to bear the burden of parents at home.
Fan Gang (National Economic Research Institute of China Reform Foundation):
Latin America, India and the Philippines, which are caught in the trap, are all countries with rapid population growth. When the population policy is relaxed, the first increase is not the urban population, but the population with insufficient education. It is really unfair for migrant workers to bear the burden of two types of people, but it is even more problematic to set up funds in rural areas and separate them from cities.
Changes of population age structure and economic development
China Net | Time: February 5, 2006 | Article Source: Guangming Watch
Summary of China Seminar on Population and Economic Development (3)
65438+On February 24th, 2005, the seminar "China's Population and Economic Development-Economists Talk about Population Issues" was held in China Economic Research Center of Peking University. The meeting discussed the future population change trend of China and its influence on economic development. We will report the contents of the seminar in four phases. In this issue, we will report the contents of the third special topic "Changes in the age structure of population and economic development".
Exploration of rural endowment insurance in China under the background of aging population
Liu (Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Labor, China)
There is a dual structure between urban and rural areas in China, and the difference between urban and rural areas exceeds 3: 1. If social security and various price subsidies in cities and towns are added, it will reach 5: 1 or 6: 1. Because agricultural products are affected by natural disasters and the market, farmers' income is unstable. Although the agricultural tax was exempted, it was offset by the price increase of agricultural assets and pesticides and fertilizers. The rural areas in China are aging rapidly. Affected by family planning and urbanization of rural population, the degree of aging in rural areas is higher than that in cities and towns 1-2%. Land income only accounts for 1/3 of farmers' income, and the main income depends on working. Due to the miniaturization of families and the transfer of young labor to cities and towns, the economic ties between the younger generation and the older generation have weakened, and the family's pension function has weakened.
China began to establish the rural social endowment insurance system in the mid-1980s, and by the end of 2004, it had been carried out in 1887 counties to varying degrees. Despite the wide coverage, the number of insured farmers is very small, currently about 54 million. 1997 once reached 80 million, but due to various factors, some farmers surrendered their insurance. The total amount of funds has been increasing and is currently 26 billion. 2.05 million farmers received pensions, and in 2004, they paid about 2 billion yuan in insurance money.
The rural endowment insurance system is different from the urban endowment insurance system. The financing methods are mainly farmers' individual contributions, collective partial subsidies and national (mainly urban enterprises) policy support. But in fact, national policy support has not been well implemented in most places. In management, rural old-age insurance completely adopts the individual account system, and all individual contributions and collective subsidies are recorded in individual names (cities and towns participate in collective planning, and some are recorded in individual accounts), and accounting is carried out by county as a unit. When issuing pensions, the payment standard is determined according to the accumulated amount of individual accounts and operating income (there is a fixed replacement rate in cities and towns). The working method is a combination of government organization and guidance and farmers' wishes, not mandatory.
Give some examples of current work. Yantai City, Shandong Province is the earliest area to develop rural old-age security. 98% of farmers are insured, basically once a year. The amount has increased from the initial 20-30 yuan money to the present 300 yuan money. The accumulated fund has reached 654.38+0.6 billion, and 654.38+0.4 million farmers receive pensions, with a per capita monthly 80 yuan. Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, in the economically developed southern part of Jiangsu Province, the government subsidizes farmers, the amount of which is 50% of the farmers' contributions, and the combination of overall planning and individual accounts is implemented. This year, Beijing decided to allocate 50 million yuan annually to support farmers' participation in insurance, and Daxing District allocated140,000 yuan annually.
Among the underdeveloped areas, Huoshan County in Anhui Province is a national poverty-stricken county, and the government gives 2% interest rate subsidy to farmers' pension funds. In Hutubi County, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, farmers can apply for small mortgage loans with proof of payment after participating in the insurance. Because rural houses and cultivated land cannot be mortgaged, mortgage with insurance certificates can solve the mortgage problem of farmers' small loans. Operationally, it is handled through the bank. Up to now, there has not been a bad loan for more than eight years.
There are still many problems in rural old-age security. The proportion of land income to farmers' income is very low. Farmers only have the right to use land, but have no ownership. They can't sell their land when they are old. Moreover, farmers will lose their ability to work when they are old, and their land will not be guaranteed. Land can't solve the problem of farmers' pension. There is no farmer insurance in the current social security system, which is an imperfect system. Assumptions such as commercial insurance still need specific planning. The government should give necessary financial support to rural endowment insurance and bring farmers into fiscal revenue. The security channel of the fund needs to be further broadened to solve the problem of no loss in fund appreciation.
The next step is to focus on areas with developed economy and rapid urbanization, and promote the rural endowment insurance system with farmers and key groups with non-agricultural employment and stable income as the main body. There are two important groups to be solved: landless peasants and migrant workers. There are more than 40 million landless peasants in China. They have no land, no jobs and no venture capital, and their lives are very difficult. To adapt to the characteristics of migrant workers, migrant workers' endowment insurance can be taken away, instead of losing money every time they surrender, or subsidizing cities and towns with migrant workers.
Influence of population age structure change on some East Asian economies
Wang Dewen (Institute of Population and Labor Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences)
The East Asian miracle not only greatly raised the income level, but also developed the whole society. Early development economists believed that population and resources were important variables in the economic system. The more people there are, the more resources and environment are consumed, which leads to the pessimistic view and Malthusian poverty trap. According to the concept of early development, we should get an economic miracle in a sparsely populated country like Africa; In fact, the miracle happened in East Asia, where per capita resources are relatively poor.
After World War II, Japan's economy recovered rapidly and grew rapidly, and its per capita GDP caught up with that of the United States in the mid-1970s. The economies of the four little dragons in Asia are also growing rapidly. At present, the per capita GDP of Singapore and Hong Kong is 50% of that of the United States, while that of Taiwan Province Province and South Korea is about 30% (China is the level of these economies in the 1960s). Life expectancy per capita has also been greatly improved, and the human development index has been greatly improved.
After studying the Four Little Dragons in Asia, Yang of Chicago thinks that their miracle depends entirely on high investment, including a large amount of labor input, the improvement of per capita education level and the substantial increase of investment. At the same time, he emphasized the redistribution of labor among departments, and the employment in non-agricultural and manufacturing industries increased rapidly. After decomposing the economic growth of the four Asian dragons, the growth is not much different from that of Latin American countries and OECD countries in the same period in terms of total factor productivity.
Krugman quoted Yang's data and his own observation of Asia, and thought that the Four Little Dragons were different from Japan. Japan's GDP per capita has surpassed that of the United States, while the Asian Tigers are less than 50% of that of the United States. In fact, Japan has made great technological innovations, and achieved a high growth in total factor productivity in the process of rapid economic growth, while the Asian Four Little Dragons did not.
The World Bank's comprehensive review of Asian economy emphasizes that in this process, the interaction between the government and the market has promoted the Asian economic miracle. On the one hand, there is high accumulation, on the other hand, by choosing corresponding development strategies and adopting good policies, high-speed economic growth can be realized.
From the perspective of demography, the East Asian miracle happened in the period of rapid population transformation. Professor Lin Yifu used income level as an exogenous variable to explain population change. Demographic economists also use population as an explanatory variable to measure the impact of population on economic growth. Demographic transition brings demographic dividend, including the increase of labor force and the improvement of per capita education level.
During the period of high-speed economic growth in East Asia, the dependency ratio of the population dropped sharply, and the population aged faster than that in developed countries. East Asian economies have chosen an export-oriented strategy that conforms to their comparative advantages, developed labor-intensive industries, participated in international competition, and greatly increased their dependence on trade. The rapid economic growth has produced a large number of labor demand and created a large number of employment opportunities. The birth rate is high and the unemployment rate is low. The savings rate has risen sharply and the per capita capital has risen rapidly, which is reflected in high investment. At the same time, pay attention to the accumulation of human capital, on the one hand, improve education and medical care measures, on the other hand, get the support of labor policy. The education level of the working-age population has been greatly improved, and the illiteracy rate has been greatly reduced.
The decline in fertility rate makes the population aging. Take Japan as an example, the aging rate is very fast, and the number of labor force and labor force participation rate have dropped sharply. The aging population has brought some problems. Japan established a pay-as-you-go pension system in 1970s. Due to the demographic transition, pension account crisis and financial crisis, Japan's economy grew weakly after 1990s.
Population is both a consumer and a producer, and the change of population structure is influenced by production and consumption as well as macroeconomics. The demographic dividend obtained in the demographic transition is one-off, and the aging of the population is bound to come, so we should be prepared.
The Long-term Impact of China's Demographic Transition on Economic Growth
Zuo (Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)
China's family planning policy is an abnormal policy. If there is no very strong reason, it should return to normal. China's fertility rate is already below the replacement level, and the population aging will be more serious in the future, so we should consider making appropriate adjustments to the fertility policy.
The background of China's population policy is the shortage economy. At that time, we hoped to reduce consumption and increase savings and investment by reducing the fertility rate, thus accelerating economic growth. However, after the Asian financial crisis, the macroeconomic environment has undergone fundamental changes. China has changed from a shortage economy to a surplus economy. The important goal of macroeconomic policy is to increase domestic demand, especially consumption. It is not the supply capacity but the demand that determines the output now. In the next decade or two, China may face the situation that labor-intensive industries will be transferred from China, and the industrial structure needs to be upgraded, otherwise the economy will stagnate.
Demography should pay attention to population quality and increase investment in human capital. China's investment in education and public health is less than that of many countries with similar economic development levels, and the government should play more roles. We should also encourage fair competition and create an institutional environment that encourages R&D and innovation.
The impact of population decline and employment rate is uncertain. On the one hand, the reduction of labor supply will increase the employment rate; On the other hand, the decline in consumer demand leads to a decrease in labor demand. Having more children in the short term will not put pressure on employment; But it will create a lot of demand, and China people are willing to spend money for their children. The lowest birth rate in the world is in Europe and Japan. The unemployment rate in Europe is relatively high, while the unemployment rate in Japan is low, but it is rising. Low fertility rate does not necessarily lead to high employment rate. The areas with low fertility rate in China are not necessarily areas with high employment rate. Shanghai's population has been negative for many years, and the unemployment rate is about 1 1.9%, ranking among the top in China.
There are two explanations for the influence of aging on consumer demand. According to the life cycle theory, you withdraw your savings in adolescence, become a saver in adulthood, and become an extractor again in old age. Therefore, the older you are, the more you spend. According to rational expectation theory, young and middle-aged people will increase their savings when they see that social endowment insurance is unreliable, which is the case in Japan. Therefore, the higher the degree of aging, the higher the savings rate.
China's savings rate has not declined since it entered the aging period, and currently exceeds 40%. The household survey in China shows that the main motives of urban and rural residents' savings are old-age security and children's education. Social security is a powerful driving force for social savings. The same is true in Japan, where consumption has never been promoted despite various measures taken. If economic growth is driven by demand, it cannot grow without demand, and aging is not conducive to future economic growth.
Demographic structure has no decisive role in technological progress. Finland's aging population is very serious, but its scientific and technological innovation ability ranks among the top in the world. The influence of aging on old-age security is certain. If the replacement rate remains unchanged, the treatment of retired workers will not be reduced, and the contribution rate of old-age insurance is directly proportional to the maintenance rate. The increase in medical expenses is related to aging, which is very obvious in Shanghai. The lack of adequate pension funds is not conducive to the development of the capital market, and 50% of American venture funds come from pension funds.
The impact on urbanization is divided into two aspects. The main body of immigrants is young people, and the decrease of young people may slow down the process of urbanization. With the decrease of immigrants, there may be a shortage of labor in cities (the Pearl River Delta region has already appeared). At present, there are some obstacles for migrant workers to enter cities, which may be due to the institutional arrangement of oversupply of labor. If the labor supply increases, these systems may change, and cities may be more welcoming to the rural population. From this perspective, aging may promote the migration of rural population to cities and towns and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. In terms of policy, it is suggested to gradually relax the second child and gradually return to normal, with the focus on improving the quality of the population and the old-age security for the rural population.
talk
Wang Guoqiang (State Family Planning Commission):
Since 1970s, China has made unquestionable achievements in population and family planning. The contribution of population and family planning is comparable to that of reform and opening up. Population policy is different from birth policy. The population problem in China is not only the number of births, but also the quality, structure and migration of the population. Population policy is a policy to solve all population problems.
198 1 the fourth session of the fifth national people's congress first put forward China's population policy, which is to "limit the population and improve the quality of the population". After more than 20 years, the population situation in China has changed greatly, and it is necessary to further improve the population policy. I suggest expanding the population policy to "stabilize the low fertility level, improve the population quality, improve the population structure, rationally distribute the population and develop human resources" to deal with the current population problem.
China's birth control policy predicts that the total population will be controlled at 65.438+0.37 billion in 2065, 65.438+0.46 billion in 2020, and the peak value will be around 65.438+0.50 billion in 2033. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to stabilize the current birth policy during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. The population of China is unbalanced among regions, and the fertility rate in the central and western regions is still relatively high. The reproductive life under the current administrative means cannot be regarded as the reproductive will of the masses. Children born at the peak of the 1950s will enter the marriage and childbearing age during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, forming a small peak. There are 654.38 billion only children and some of them can have two children alone, so the fertility level may rise. The birth policy should be gradually adjusted for different groups of people. Shanghai's population has been negative for more than ten years. If the policy is relaxed first, the impact will be great. Young adults and students from all over the country flocked to Shanghai, which solved the aging problem in Shanghai to some extent.
Zhang Erli (China Population Society):
At present, the new regulations in various provinces are that only two children are born, and two children are born alone in rural areas. This policy didn't have much impact on the 11th Five-Year Plan period before 20 10, and it didn't begin to show up until after 20 10. There is a time difference between birth and employment, and children born now will not enter the employment conflict until 2025. Before 2025, the employment pressure is great, and after 2025, the labor force will decrease at the rate of 9 9- 10/00000 per year.
The adjustment of birth policy is a long process. It will take us 25 years to fall below the low fertility replacement level, and it will take at least 15 years to return to having two children. There are a lot of technical preparations to be done, and from the perspective of family planning cadres, in order to ensure the smooth development of family planning work.
Zhao Baohua (China Gerontology Society):